Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Eagles 21.5, Redskins 17.5
Outlook: Despite having the lowest total on this weeks main slate at 39, there are some viable DFS plays mainly due to how thin the Eagles offense is set to be. Alshon Jeffery has already been ruled out, and it looks like both Nelson Agholor and Jordan Howard will miss this game as well, in addition to offensive lineman Lane Johnson. The Eagles are somehow still in the playoff race at 6-7, and are in poll position to win the NFC East should they win out. that being said, it won’t shock me to see them struggle this weekend due to the amount of injuries they are being forced to deal with. Those injuries open up value in the receiving corps, Greg Ward saw nine targets from Carson Wentz this past Monday night, and he is at the bottom-barrel pricing tier across the industry, making him a strong punt in all formats. JJ Arcega-Whiteside should see an increased role as well, but with an expected matchup with Quinton Dunbar, I would be avoiding him. The bulk of the offense will fall onto the shoulders of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Ertz has logged 44 targets over the last four weeks, while the Redskins have served up the ninth-most DraftKings points to Tight Ends this season. This also bodes well for Goedert who has seen six or more targets himself in each of the last four games. We will continue to see a mix of Miles Sanders and Boston Scott in the backfield for Philly. but neither really move the needle for me in DFS.
On a 13 game slate, I see no reason to have any interest in any Redskins players, especially with the team carrying just 17.5 implied points. Some may look to someone like Adrian Peterson with Derrius Guice on IR, but again, it’s a 13 game slate and there are actually a few really interesting cheap Running Back plays this weekend.
Cash Game Options: Zach Ertz, Greg Ward
Tournament Options: Dallas Goedert
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Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Packers 22.5, Bears 17.5
Outlook: Another lackluster game, this contest between the Bears and Packers features the second-lowest O/U this week at 40 points. Mitchell Trubisky has started to run the ball more over the past few weeks, and it’s opened up the offense entirely and has the Bears playing much more like the 2018 version rather than what we saw for the first few months of 2019. Over the last three weeks, he’s posted DK point totals of 20, 27 and 33 with 7, 4 and 10 rushing attempts respectively. This isn’t the best game to attack, but using Trubisky in a large-field GPP in a stack with Allen Robinson can definitely be considered for a milly-maker type build.
The Packers are a good real-life team, but not someone that generally peaks my interest in DFS outside of tournaments, and whenever Davante Adams price gets too low. Speaking of Adams, he would be my preferred partner in a run-back with a Trubisky/Robinson stack, he has target totals of 11, 10, 12, 10 and 6 since returning from injury…have you all forgotten what Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones where able to do against this secondary on Thanksgiving Day?
I expect some people to want to go back to Aaron Jones after his 34 fantasy point eruption last week, but I’m personally still going to be underweight here. Any time Jones has separated himself as the guy this season, Matt LaFleur has done nothing but mix in Jamaal Williams even more in following weeks. I don’t think he’s a bad play, but his price has increased, and the Bears are supposedly getting Akiem Hicks back this week which will help their run-defense tremendously. I prefer someone like Leonard Fournette in Jones’ pricing tier in tournaments, and both should be much lower-owned than Chris Carson.
Cash Game Options: none (for now)
Tournament Options: Mitch Trubisky, Allen Robinson. Davante Adams
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Titans 27, Texans 24
Outlook: This is one of the most highly-anticipated games of the weekend as the Texans and Titans are tied atop the AFC South at 8-5. I wrote last week that Deshaun Watson felt weirdly overdue for rushing production, and he responded with two touchdowns on the ground and over 30 fantasy points. The Titans are set to be without both Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson this week, solidifying Watson has playable in all formats, especially if Will Fuller is able to give it a go on Sunday.
As we worried, Duke Johnson ran behind Carlos Hyde last week despite his big game against New England, and just shows why I won’t waste my time guessing which guy gets the run on a 13 game slate. We do know that we can stack Watson with both Hopkins and (or) Fuller in all formats. Both see a bump in matchup with Butler and Jackson out, while we need to wait and see about Fuller’s injury designation. If he ends up getting ruled out, we can look at Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills as cheap punts.
I tweeted out a few week ago that I would not want to play the Titans down the stretch with how well Tannehill has looked sans Adam Gase, and they’ve now won six of their last seven games. I was all-in on the Titans stack last week against the dusty Raiders defense, and this Texans squad is not much better. They’ve allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL, while Derrick Henry’s hamstring might increase the expected volume for the passing game as well. Speaking of Henry, he hasn’t practiced all week but seems dead set on playing Sunday, meaning he will most likely end up as a GPP-only play for me, as sad as that is. Keep in mind, the Texans allow the sixth-most DK points per game to opposing RB’s (28.1). It’s hard to stack anyone with Tanny, but if you’re going to do it, it has to be with AJ Brown who erupted in Week 14 for a 5-153-2 line. His playing time has increased a ton in the recent weeks, so I don’t really think it would be “point chasing” but the price hike he got on DraftKings doesn’t do him any favors…he’s a better FanDuel play for less money.
Overall, I think this game will shootout and be a great real-life game to watch. I think Watson + Nuk is the way to go here in cash games, but stacking it up from either side is a great move in tournaments, especially if Will Fuller plays (he should end up really low-owned in active).
Cash Game Options: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins
Tournament Options: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Will Fuller
Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Giants 25, Dolphins 21.5
Outlook: It’s funny to me that this is a clear stack the Giants spot against the God-awful Dolphins, yet one of the players I have tagged here for cash games is a member of Miami. Most of the fantasy-viable plays on the Dolphins are injured, such as DeVante Parker, so any interest we had in them is already going to be diminished. That won’t stop me from considering Patrick Laird, however, who has transformed in recent weeks from a meme to a legitimate DFS punt play. Laird played nearly 90% of the snaps last week, and dominated the work, while he is not a high-upside option, any RB is in play against the Giants, especially one that can catch as well as Laird does (his strong suit). On a full-PPR site like DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats for me at his price tag. The only other player I would consider is Isaiah Ford, the former 7th round pick best comped to Tyler Boyd per PlayerProfiler led the team in targets in their last game with DaVante Parker and Albert Wilson both out — both should miss again in Week 15.
Eli Manning returned to the starting lineup last week in primetime, putting up 16 fantasy points against the Eagles. He’s just a few hundred dollars cheaper than Kyler Murray, so I see no reason to drop down to him in cash games, but he is certainly in play in tournaments against this defense in a stack with either Darius Slayton or Sterling Shepard. We have went out of our way to attack the Dolphins with speed this season, which would point us towards Slayton in hopes that Manning will be able to hit him on a few deep balls.
Saquon Barkley is set to be one of the highest-owned Running Backs on the slate due to this matchup, but this is one spot I can’t quite get a good feeling for. Barkley has not been limited from his ankle injury in terms of usage at all in recent weeks, but he admitted that it mentally has taken a toll on him this season and has resulted in poor performance. I don’t like trusting someone that has said that in cash games, but at the same time, if there was a matchup for him to be confident in and get going, it is this one as the Dolphins have coughed up the most rushing yards in the NFL. Ultimately I will decide what to do here in my cash game article, but for now I think he is better-suited for GPPs.
Cash Game Options: Patrick Laird, Saquon Barkley
Tournament Options: Eli Manning stack with one of Darius Slayton/Sterling Shepard + run it back with Isaiah Ford
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 27, Panthers 21
Outlook: The backfields are going to dominate the attention here, especially on the Seattle side with Rashaad Penny hitting IR after tearing his ACL in Week 14. This paves the way for Chris Carson to step back into a full-time role like we saw earlier on this season, and it couldn’t come at a better time given that the Panthers rank dead-last in run DVOA. This has been the best matchup for a Running Back to have this season, and with how good the Panthers are at getting pressure on Quarterbacks mixed with the Hawks losing last week, I think they will center the game plan around Carson on Sunday and feed him all afternoon. You could look at a Russell Wilson stack as leverage off of the expected high-ownership of their RB, but there are other stacks I like better in tournaments and I will most likely end up avoiding this team overall aside from Carson.
The Panthers as a whole are a more interesting team for DFS. Despite the team firing their coach and being eliminated from the playoffs, McCaffrey saw nearly every snap again last week and hushed anyone that had even remotely hinted at the possibility of him being rested as the season closes. We hit a rough stretch earlier on in the season where his targets declined heavily — weeks 6, 8 and 9 he saw 5, 3 and 7 targets — but that hasn’t been the case recently. The passing usage has picked back up as he’s logged 48 targets over the last four weeks and his price has DECREASED. He’s the top overall RB play on the slate again for me this week.
The focus of the passing game is going to be Ian Thomas with Greg Olsen ruled out again this week. Thomas drew 10 targets in his absence last week resulting in over 16 DK points, while the Seahawks have served up 16.8 DK points per game to opposing Tight Ends (second-most). I don’t want to go overboard on Panthers this week, which makes DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel better tournament plays, with my attention being on CMC and Thomas in cash games.
Cash Game Options: Christian McCaffrey, Ian Thomas, Chris Carson
Tournament Options: DJ Moore
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 27.5, Broncos 17.5
Outlook: Although this game doesn’t seem as ugly as some of the other ones I have already covered, I assure you, for fantasy purposes it is. Drew Lock has looked much better than expected in his first two NFL starts, but is it really that hard to look better than expected when the expectation was that you were going to be one of the worst Quarterbacks in the NFL this season? Nonetheless, the Chiefs defense has been playing other-worldly recently and this feels like the week here I got their D/ST 5% owned against Derek Carr when the put up over 20 fantasy points. I don’t think they will be that low-owned this time around, and we can never count on defensive touchdowns, but I will have a full Broncos fade this weekend.
The Chiefs side of this is really interesting to me, on one hand, Mahomes has not topped 20 DK points in any of his last three games, but if you dig deeper…one was against the Patriots, another a blowout against the Raiders where the defense scored, and then the Chargers (divisional games are historically lower scoring). We went all-in on Deshaun Watson against this Broncos defense last week, and despite the game-script helping him out, he delivered a monster fantasy game. Now, the Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total on the slate at over 27 points…but why is nobody talking about Patrick Mahomes this week? This is not as bad of a matchup as it looks on paper with how this defense has played down the stretch of the season, and you’re going to be able to stack Mahomes with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill all for what you would consider low-ownership for the team total they have.
Cash Game Options: none (for now)
Tournament Options: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bucs 24.5, Lions 21
Outlook: Even with Jameis Winston barely throwing a football at practice this week, this is one of my favorite tournament spots on the slate and a game that I definitely plan on stacking up. For starters, the game is indoors, so we don’t have to worry about any weather issues, and the Lions defense has been getting carved up down the stretch of the season. This defense has also struggled to get pressure on QB’s all season — ranking sixth-worst in QB Pressures — which will allow Winston time to pick out his receivers and *hopefully* hit them. I’m hoping that the concerns over his injury keep people away, because he is one of the top tournament plays on the slate in my opinion.
Everyone knows that I will be avoiding the Bucs backfield situation even in a matchup as good as this one, and will instead focus on who I want to stack Winston with. The obvious choice will be Chris Godwin with Mike Evans out for this game, but I think we can consider a double-stack in tournaments with someone like Breshad Perriman as well. Perriman will step into a full-time role with Evans sidelined, and has long possessed upside needed to win tournaments…if he can hold onto the ball — note that he posted a 30-70-1 line on five targets last week. We also have someone like Justin Watson to consider, but he should still potentially be in a split for playing time so that makes him a bit more thin than Perriman.
On the Lions side, David Blough wasn’t as sharp in game two as he was in his debut, but this is a great time for him to get back on track at home. The Bucs defense has allowed the second-most DK points to opposing Quarterback’s this season…and the most DK points to Wide Receivers by almost 100 points. Kenny Golladay has higher-upside than Marvin Jones in my opinion, but both are strong options in this matchup and a game stack of this game will be in heavy consideration for my main GPP team this weekend.
Cash Game Options: Chris Godwin
Tournament Options: Jameis Winston + Chris Godwin + Breshad Perriman stack with one of Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Raiders 26.5, Jaguars 20.5
Outlook: A true battle of horrible teams this one, both of these defense have been in a free fall over the last month of the season making them both great matchups to target with opposing fantasy players. Even against the Raiders, I can’t roster Gardner Minshew in DFS down his best option, but I certainly can look at Leonard Fournette who is set to come into Sunday under-owned relative to the matchup. Nothing has changed for Fournette usage wise recently, and he remains second in the NFL in RB targets. This is a dream matchup for someone still due for positive regression when it comes to touchdowns — he has just three this season despite the sixth-most attempts inside the 10 yard line — and he is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate, any position.
The focus of the Jaguars team is going to be on the receivers with DJ Chark out, presenting increased usage for Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook and even our old friend Keelan Cole. Conley is the best play here at his price, the Raiders biggest weakness has been allowing splash plays this season and that is Conely’s specialty given his 4.35 speed. Both Westbrook and Cole make for solid leverage plays in tournaments, and I would probably pick Cole if I had to choose one. He’s long been one of my favorite fantasy sleepers and might be someone I end up overweight on in GPPs.
On the Raiders side, the Jaguars defense has been so bad in recent weeks, getting outscored by over 100 points over the last month…but I just can’t bring myself to the point of playing Derek Carr in DFS. The Raiders are favored, and when they win they generally run the ball with Josh Jacobs, and I think that is what they will look to do in what is their last game ever in Oakland. Jacobs is nursing a fractured shoulder but intends to play this week, I rarely roster injured players, but this matchup is so good that I might make an exception this week in GPPs. Tyrell Williams has been entirely touchdown dependent this season, so I would much rather look at Darren Waller here especially with Foster Moreau out for this game.
Overall, I would be looking here for fill-ins on my GPP lineups, grabbing guys like Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller or even a chalky Chris Conley as one-offs, rather than a full stack. These are bad defense, but also bad offenses and there’s no guarantee a lot of points are going to be scored.
Cash Game Options: Leonard Fournette, Chris Conley
Tournament Options: Josh Jacobs, Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, Darren Waller
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Rams 25, Cowboys 24
Outlook: This is one of my favorite tournament games on the slate, and Vegas has confirmed that with a 49 O/U, tied for the second-highest total on the slate. The Rams have transformed how they play in recent weeks focusing more on 12 personnel and getting Todd Gurley more involved in the offense, in addition to Tyler Higbee and Robert Woods. I don’t have Jared Goff listed as a tournament option. but I do think he’s in play if you’re game stacking though my lean is towards Dak Prescott. This is a very small sample size, but the Rams players we want to focus on are the three I mentioned above. Woods has drawn 36 targets over the last three weeks, while Gurley has logged 20+ touches in three of the last four games. Higbee will remain a strong play in all formats if Gerald Everett is out again, he’s gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games.
Dak Prescott is not projected to be high-owned on this slate, but I’m wondering why given the expected shootout and the fact that he’s at home, where he has been much better throughout his career. He’s topped 21 fantasy points in every game at home this season, and is one of my favorite GPP QB’s on the slate in stacks with Amari Cooper and (or) Michael Gallup. Cooper himself is better in Dallas as well averaging 26 DraftKings points per game there this season — and his expected matchup with Jalen Ramsey will do nothing but suppress his ownership even more. Gallup could get more looks funneled his way with Ramsey on Cooper, though they are close enough in price that I would likely just make the jump up to Coop for the upside.
The Rams are much more beatable through the air than on the ground, and with all of the other strong spend ups at RB this week I will likely avoid Ezekiel Elliott. I think this could end up the highest-scoring game of the weekend, and it’s one where the Cowboys need to rely on Dak if they want to win it.
Cash Game Options: Robert Woods
Tournament Options: Todd Gurley. Tyler Higbee, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup
Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Browns 26, Cardinals 23
Outlook: Another game that sets up tremendously for a stack and a shootout, Browns/Cardinals is the other game tied with Rams/Cowboys for a 49 O/U. This is a get right spot indoors for Baker Mayfield against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s this season. He can be used in stacks with Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckham, and I also don’t mind a double-stack given the quality of the matchup. This secondary has been one of the worst in the league in slot coverage, so bad that they had to cut their slot corner mid-season. This bodes well for Landry who runs the most routes there on the Browns, and has been much more consistent than Beckham who is apparently playing injured. Patrick Peterson has not been good since returning from suspension however, so the individual matchup doesn’t get any worse for OBJ.
You can certainly look at either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt in tournaments, this defense has given up rushing yards and receiving yards to opposing RB’s at top-ten rates this season, I just prefer locking in someone that gets all of the work when I’m spending up.
One of my favorite spots on this slate is the matchup for Kyler Murray, his price is way down due to his recent performance but that has had to do with tough matchups for than anything. The Browns defense is not as imposing as the Steelers or 49ers, two teams he’s faced in the last three weeks, and even then he was able to top 25 DK points against San Francisco. The Browns have struggled to contain Quarterback’s on the ground coming in bottom-ten in rushing yards allowed to the position, making this a potential ceiling spot for Murray at a discounted price tag.
One of my favorite tourney spots last week was Joe Mixon against this Browns defense still without Myles Garrett, which would point us in the direction of Kenyan Drake who continues to dominate the work over David Johnson. The presence of Johnson and Chase Edmonds does limit his ceiling slightly, and I will be more inclined to pair Murray with either of Christian Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald. Kirk has higher upside and has seen 7+ targets in each of the last four games, while Fitzgerald may be playing in his final game in Arizona should he choose to retire and draws a matchup inside against TJ Carrie that we have attacked relentlessly in recent weeks.
Note: David Njoku obviously gets THE matchup for a Tight End against Arizona, but there are other cheap options and I’m still unsure of his workload, so I will likely avoid him. He should come in low-owned though, and makes for a decent dart throw in large field GPPs.
Cash Game Options: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Jarvis Landry
Tournament Options: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, Kenyan Drake
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: 49ers 29.5, Falcons 18.5
Outlook: This is probably the weirdest game of the week to me, and probably one of the few games that I feel very confident in a blowout. We’ve seen the Falcons team just completely bottom out multiple times this season, and with Calvin Ridley out, on the road against a fierce defense, I think we could see it happen again here. I’m mostly going to fully fade this team this week, but if there was one player I would consider it would be Julio Jones who should see even more volume than usual with Ridley sidelined.
As for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo flashed his upside with a 30+ point fantasy outing against the Saints last week, but I highly doubt that this game provides with as much shootout upside as that contest did. Garoppolo can be used in stacks with George Kittle or even Emmanuel Sanders in tournaments against one of the softest opponents in the NFL, but the clear play for the 49ers this week to me is Raheem Mostert. Kyle Shanahan backed Mostert to the media early this week stating that he has given them “no choice” but to keep him as the lead back moving forward. Typically a three-headed committee, “MustStart” as we call him has pulled away from Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman and is one of the better tournament RB plays on the slate.
Cash Game Options: none (for now)
Tournament Options: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Julio Jones
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Vikings 23, Chargers 22
Outlook: This sets up as a low-scoring game despite the 45 O/U. The Chargers defense has played really well down the stretch after getting Derwin James back and healthy, and it’s clear that the place to attack them is on the ground. Dalvin Cook is the play we want from the Vikings, and if anything, his ceiling might get a slight uptick in this game with backup Alexander Mattison unable to steal carries — he’s been ruled out for this game. We could see Ameer Abdullah mix in for some passing work, or my man Mike Boone grab some carries if the game gets out of hand, but we know that Cook has a locked in workload against a defense that ranks top-12 in fantasy points allowed to Running Backs. We don’t know yet if Adam Thielen is playing, but even if he is out I’m not overly interested in Stefon Diggs or Kyle Rudolph outside of a GPP dart.
The Chargers side is much more appealing for DFS, they Vikings defense has forced usage to the passing game with how good their run-defense has been and it’s resulted in the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing Wide Receivers. This bodes well for Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams who is still too cheap after finally finding the end zone last week.
Overall, I’m not overly interested in this game, but I think tournament shots on Keenan Allen or Mike Williams are fine, and Cook can be used as a pivot off of the other chalky options at RB, especially as a home favorite.
Cash Game Options: None
Tournament Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Dalvin Cook
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Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
