Quarterback
Deshaun Watson- This feels like a pretty ugly week for Quarterback’s, and I’ve narrowed down my pool to two possible options. If you’re looking to spend up, I think it should be on Deshaun Watson, who myself and readers of this article played in cash games last weekend. This is arguably the biggest game of the weekend with these two teams both 8-5, and the Titans defense continues to be really banged up. They were jumped by the Colts a few weeks ago, and even allowed over 20 points to the hapless Raiders last week. Their offense has been clicking, and with how bad the Texans defense is on the other side this game screams shootout. He got back on track with two rushing touchdowns last week as well, and could also get Will Fuller back for this game which would improve his overall outlook even more.
Kyler Murray- This is quietly a smash spot for Kyler Murray in my opinion, and we are getting him at an extremely cheap price based of recency bias. Murray has “struggled” in his last few games, two of which came against the 49ers and the Steelers, and the one against the 49ers still resulted in 26.7 DraftKings points. The Browns defense has already struggled to get pressure without Myles Garret, and they will be without Olivier Vernon again this week as well. I think he will have time to pick out his receivers down field, and I also think this could be the big game on the ground we have been waiting for. The Browns come into Week 15 having allowed the eighth-most yards on the ground to opposing QB’s, with four touchdowns. This game has a huge (for this slate) O/U of 49, and we should expect a potential shootout indoors. Murray is not priced according to his ceiling.
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Running Back
Christian McCaffrey- CMC is the top RB play again this week, and is a lock for me on both sites with his price coming down. He’s been trolled on touchdowns each of the last two weeks, but has seen his passing game usage skyrocket back up to where it was early on in the season. He has over 10 targets in three of the last four games — the outlier being a 9 target game — and he eased concerns about his workload being limited last week…he came off the field just one time the entire game.
Leonard Fournette- I don’t expect Lenny to be high-owned this week, but I’m not exactly sure why that is. This Raiders defense has been crumbling in recent weeks, they were shredded by a hobbled Derrick Henry last weekend, and now we get Fournette who is still due for positive touchdown regression. He has just three touchdowns this season despite ranking fourth-overall in attempts inside the 20 (41) and sixth in attempts inside the 10 (23). Nothing has changed for him usage wise either, he’s drawn 7. 12. 11 and 6 targets over the last four weeks…maybe he picks up a few more this week with DJ Chark sidelined? I love this spot this week, and I’m excited that he won’t b high-owned, I plan on being overweight to Fournette while everyone focuses on their cheap receivers.
Chris Carson- With Rashaad Penny out due to a torn ACL, we can project Carson to dominate the touches in a glowing matchup with the Panthers who rank last in run DVOA this season. He’s the same price on both sites, making him an elite FanDuel, whereas he can be considered on DraftKings but is nowhere near a must play with guys like CMC and Fournette there, as well as Saquon Barkley who is projected for over 20% ownership (I’m not on him personally). The Panthers strength this season has been getting pressure on the opposing QB, so I’m assuming the Hawks will want to game plan around Carson and the run game in an attempt to keep Russell Wilson off his back. He’s one of the best plays on the slate, but I might consider a fade on DK since I will have him on FanDuel regardless.
Patrick Laird- Laird started out as a meme a few weeks ago, but due to injuries and the Dolphins looking to evaluate everything they have on the roster, he has seen an increased role in recent weeks. He got up to almost 90% of the snaps last week, and jumped from three touches, to 14, to 19 over the last three games. The important thing to note here is the 10 targets in each of his last two, and he is the top cheap Running Back play this week against a weak Giants defense that has surrendered receiving yards to RB’s at a top-ten rate.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins- Nuk is the top spend up for me on this slate at his position, and would provide a way to get access to the Texans and that game even if you choose Murray over Watson for your Quarterback. He sees around 30% of the teams targets with Will Fuller off the field, so we would prefer him not to play, but even if he is active, the Titans secondary is extremely banged up and should be missing Adoree Jackson this week in addition to Malcolm Butler. As we saw last week against Drew Lock, this Texans defense is horrible and the Titans are listed as three point favorites this weekend, meaning we should see positive game-script for both Watson and Hopkins on Sunday.
Chris Godwin- I love this game on Sunday, and I’m hoping that Jameis Winston’s injury keeps people away. The Lions defense has crumbled since the early goings of the season, and they’ve now allowed the fifth-most yards to Wide Receivers, and the ninth-most DraftKings points as well. We already know how good Chris Godwin is, but he should have a chance to showcase that once again on Sunday with Mike Evans out for the Buccaneers. He was second on the team in targets per game behind Evans this season, so he should have a clear path to 10 or more in this tantalizing matchup on the fast track in Detroit.
Robert Woods- If you haven’t been watching the Rams, then you’re probably unaware of this, but Sean McVay has completely changed the way he has called offense over the last few weeks. They’ve been running much more 12 personnel, and they have centered the offense around Todd Gurley and Robert Woods rather than Cooper Kupp. Now, it’s a really small sample that we are dealing with, but it has been working and I don’t think McVay will want to change that up in a big game against the Cowboys. Woods has logged 36, yes 36, targets over his last three games, yet is still priced at only $6,200 on DraftKings. Even with all of those targets, he has just one receiving touchdown this season meaning positive regression could still be on its way.
Christian Kirk- Kirk has been inconsistent, as much as the Cardinals offense has this season, but remains a higher upside option than Larry Fitzgerald and is my favorite partner with Kyler Murray in Week 15. He’s seen 10, 9, 7 and 9 targets over his last four games, and it’s important to note that this game has the second-highest O/U of the week at 49 points. If I end up with Kyler in cash, I will most likely look to stack him with Kirk and you can also consider running it back with Jarvis Landry, who I prefer to Odell Beckham.
DraftKings Punts- We have a pair of punts to consider on DK this week with both Chris Conley and Greg Ward falling below the $4,000 mark. Conley gets a boost with DJ Chark out for the Jaguars, and he draws a matchup with the Raiders who have had a severe issue allowing splash plays to Wide Receivers this season, speed being Conley’s biggest asset. Ward saw nine targets last Monday night with the Eagles receiving corps ravaged by injuries, and we will get a similar situation this weekend (see Zach Ertz blurb). It’s tough to trust this offense right now, and the Redskins defense has not played bad recently, but he is the minimum price and won’t need much to beat value. I prefer Conley if choosing one, but think both are playable in cash builds.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (FanDuel)- Tight End is really clear cut for me this week, and I know heading into Sunday who I plan on playing on each site. It’s always easier to spend up at the position on FanDuel, which has me focused on Zach Ertz for sub-$7,000. Ertz has seen double-digit targets in five of his last six games, and should be locked into a heavy workload again this week with both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor expected to miss for the Eagles. The matchup is strong as well, the Redskins have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points to the position this season.
Ian Thomas (DraftKings)- Last week we were all-in on Ian Thomas, and he somehow was still “only” 50% owned or so. Greg Olsen was ruled out again for this weeks game which means we can go right back to the well against a team in the Seahawks that has served up the third-most fantasy points and fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends. Thomas drew 10 targets last week, and is still priced as if Olsen were playing.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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