Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Taysom Hill
Hill’s performed well since taking over for an injured Drew Brees. In 4 starts, he’s thrown for 834 yards and 4 touchdowns with 2 interceptions on 114 pass attempts. More importantly, Hill’s added 209 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. He quietly owns a 3.4% touchdown rate with a 1.7% interception rate in 2020.
Hill’s averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game as a starter this season. He’s posted 18+ fantasy points in each of his 4 starts, including a pair with 25+ fantasy points. Hill played in a pair of blowouts this season, but his rushing ability allowed him to find success with only 39 pass attempts against the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons. Hill flashed upside with his arm in closer games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, recording 523 yards and 4 touchdowns on 75 pass attempts. His versatility gives him an elite ceiling, especially in a plus matchup.
Hill gets an interesting matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. They’re only allowing 230.5 passing yards per game and 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt this season, but they’ve also given up 21 passing touchdowns in 2020. Kansas City also ranks in the bottom ten of the NFL in rushing yards (268) and touchdowns (5) allowed to opposing quarterbacks. The New Orleans Saints are currently 3 point underdogs in a game set at 51.5 points. They boast an implied team total of 24.3 points this weekend. Hill may not be an elite talent at quarterback, but his game is extremely fantasy-friendly. New Orleans will be forced to score points if they want to stay in this game against the NFL’s top offense. Hill is a player that will go overlooked, but he makes an elite tournament option for his price tag.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins’ role for the Baltimore Ravens continues to grow as the season progresses. Through 12 games, he owns 504 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 96 carries. He’s also recorded 17 receptions for 103 yards on 22 targets. Dobbins has quietly posted 44 yards and 5 touchdowns on 16 red zone carries, although he hasn’t seen any red zone targets this season. Surprisingly, he’s seen 31.3% of Baltimore’s carries inside-the-5, even in limited snaps.
Dobbins leads Baltimore’s running backs, playing 43% of the offensive snaps this season. His role in the offense is growing, though, as he played 62% of the offensive snaps in Week 14. He’s also recorded 10+ carries in 5 of his last 6 games. In those games, he’s averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. Dobbins posted 13+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 games, including an 18.5 fantasy point performance against the Tennessee Titans. Gus Edwards continues to see snaps, although Dobbins is the clear RB1 on the team with Mark Ingram being phased out of the offense.
Dobbins gets a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who feature one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. They’re giving up 145.5 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. Jacksonville’s also allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season. The Jaguars are giving up 1.57 yards before contact per attempt, while Dobbins ranks 11th in the NFL in yards before contact (2.7) and yards after contact per carry (2.5). The Ravens are 13 point favorites in a game set at 48 points, giving them an implied team total of 30.5 points this weekend. Dobbins will likely go overlooked because of Baltimore’s timeshare in the backfield, but he’s the most talented option that could see 60%+ of the snaps in an elite matchup. He’s scored in three consecutive games and could find the end zone once again this weekend.
Raheem Mostert
Mostert’s dealt with injuries throughout the 2020 season. He’s posted 453 yards and 2 touchdowns on 90 carries through 7 games this season. He’s also added 16 receptions for 156 yards and 1 touchdown on 19 targets. Mostert’s only seen 8 red zone carries, recording 18 yards and 1 touchdown. Although he’s only played limited snaps, he hasn’t been involved in their red zone passing game.
Mostert’s only played 22% of the offensive snaps for the San Francisco 49ers this season. He played 49% of the snaps in Week 14, though. Mostert got off to a blazing start to 2020, scoring 25.1 and 18.7 fantasy points against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets. Since then, he’s averaging 10 fantasy points per game. He’s dealing with another ankle injury, though, and he needs to be cleared before playing 50%+ of the snaps as the RB1 for San Francisco.
Luckily, Mostert gets an elite matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who are giving up a league-high 162.7 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Dallas has allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in 2020, as well. The Cowboys are allowing a slate-high 3.27 yards before contact per attempt, while Mostert ranks third in the NFL in yards before contact per attempt (3.4). The 49ers are a 3 point favorite in a game set at 45 points, and they own an implied team total of 24 points. Mostert’s injury concern and timeshare will keep his ownership down, although his efficiency makes him an outstanding tournament option against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin
Godwin’s seen mixed results throughout the 2020 season. He boasts 51 receptions for 587 yards and 3 touchdowns on 63 targets through 9 games. Godwin’s been an efficient red zone option, posting 5 receptions for 36 yards and 3 touchdowns on 6 targets. He’s recorded 517 air yards with an 8.2 aDOT, accounting for 11.7% of the Tampa Bay Bucs’ air yards in 2020.
Godwin’s dealt with injuries throughout the season, playing 58% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. He’s been a relatively consistent option, scoring 10+ fantasy points in 7 of his 9 games, although he’s only topped 20 fantasy points once. He saw 19 targets in Weeks 11 and 12, although he posted only 2 receptions for 25 yards against the Minnesota Vikings last week. Overall, Godwin’s recorded 15.8% of Tampa Bay’s receptions, 16.8% of receiving yards, and 10% of receiving touchdowns on a 13% target share. He’s an efficient option that has struggled due to a lack of volume throughout the season.
Godwin gets an ideal matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta is allowing 281.8 passing yards per game and 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also given up 26 passing touchdowns this season. Godwin is specifically expected to match up against Isaiah Oliver, who’s graded out as a below-average cornerback in the NFL this season, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Oliver’s been targeted on 18% of his routes covered, allowing a 76% catch rate. He’s given up 1.72 yards and 0.38 fantasy points per route covered this season, as well. Unsurprisingly, he’s been Atlanta’s worst cornerback in 2020. Tampa Bay is a 6 point favorite in a game set at 50.5 points. They feature an implied team total of 28.3 points this weekend. Godwin’s far too cheap for this matchup, making him an elite tournament option, as there are quiet a few dominant options in the Bucs offense.
Justin Jefferson
Jefferson’s enjoyed an elite rookie season for the Minnesota Vikings thus far. Through 13 games, he owns 65 receptions for 1,078 yards and 7 touchdowns on 92 targets. Jefferson’s only seen 6 red zone targets, posting 4 receptions for 38 yards and 3 touchdowns. He boasts 1,150 air yards with an outstanding 12.5 aDOT. Overall, he’s seen 34.9% of Minnesota’s air yards this season.
Jefferson’s played 80% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in 2020. He’s been a bit of a boom or bust option, scoring single-digit fantasy points in 6 of his 13 games. With that being said, he’s also flashed 40+ fantasy point upside. Jefferson’s posted 18+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, as well, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game in those contests. He’s likely to continue to see 8+ targets this week, as well.
Jefferson gets a matchup against the Chicago Bears, who are only allowing 232.0 passing yards per game and 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve given up 20 passing touchdowns this season, as well. Jefferson is expected to spend the majority of the game against Jaylon Johnson, who’s been a below-average cornerback in 2020, according to PFF. He’s only allowing a 57% catch rate while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. Johnson’s given up 1.21 yards and 0.27 fantasy points per route covered this season. Minnesota is a 3.5 point favorite in a game set at 47 points, and they own an implied team total of 25.3 points. Jefferson and Adam Thielen are both great options this weekend, although I favor Jefferson.
Tight End
Jared Cook
Like many tight ends, Cook’s seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2020 season. He boasts 28 receptions for 350 yards and 6 touchdowns on 46 targets through 12 games. Cook’s been arguably the most efficient red zone threat for the New Orleans Saints, recording 6 receptions for 54 yards and 4 touchdowns on 10 targets. He’s recorded 524 air yards with an 11.4 aDOT, accounting for 20.5% of New Orlean’s air yards.
Cook leads the Saints’ tight ends, playing 42% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s flashed upside this season, scoring 10+ fantasy points in 6 of his 12 games. He struggled in blowouts when Taysom Hill took over at quarterback, but scored 12.7 and 11.8 fantasy points in his last 2 games, showing plenty of chemistry with Hill. He isn’t a major part of the offense but comes with touchdown upside at arguably the worst and most inconsistent fantasy position.
Cook gets a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have already been outlined under the Hill recommendation. They’re a team that has struggled against tight ends in 2020, as well. Hill certainly makes a risky option, but nearly everyone does at his position. He’s an outstanding tournament option for a surprisingly low price tag.
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