Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Falcons 25, Panthers 22
Outlook: I’m a bit concerned about the Falcons in this matchup, and that is going to affect my interest in the game as a whole outside of some of the obvious plays. Kyle Allen has continued to be a volatile fantasy option, and despite the strong matchup indoors against a bad Falcons defense, he isnt going to be of big interest to me in Week 14. I will include him in my tournament pool below, however, because I am interested in the Panthers skill position players and if I’m going to play more than one of them it would only make sense to consider Allen alongside them.
Christian McCaffrey is coming off his second-worst game of the season, a game in which he still put up 17 PPR points…imagine 17 points being a huge disappointment, because it was. He got a slight price decrease after his “down” game last week but remains the top overall play on this slate and someone that I will be locking in on most of my builds this week, even in tournaments. He’s averaged nearly double-digit catches in this matchup when you factor in last season, and their meeting this year, and he has the highest floor on the main slate, while still having a ceiling even at an elevated price tag. This Falcons secondary is top-ten in fantasy points allowed to opposing Wide Receivers, making both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel viable tournament plays this weekend. Samuel in particular feels under-priced, and could see a few extra targets if Greg Olsen gets ruled out. Speaking of Olsen, should that happen we can also look to Ian Thomas who is min-priced across the industry. Thomas has had success with Olsen sidelined before and is an extremely athletic receiver for his position.
The reason I’m not in on the Falcons at all this week is that they have the tendency to just disappear because they are a bad football team, and they are so one dimensional that when it happens the whole offense is sunk. Matt Ryan has been running for his life in recent weeks, and that shouldn’t change this weekend — the Panthers rank top-ten in the NFL in QB pressure and are currently in the lead for sacks as well. The clear place to attack the Panthers has been on the ground, not through the air, which could hurt the Falcons with them ranking second-to-last in rushes per game as a team. They simply don’t run the ball, and that’s going to take my interest away from Devonta Freeman who I do think will be a popular selection in DFS come Sunday. I, personally, will be underweight.
Cash Game Options: Christian McCaffrey, Ian Thomas (If Greg Olsen out)
Tournament Options: DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Kyle Allen
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Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Packers 27, Redskins 14
Outlook: The Redskins somehow won a game last weekend against the Panthers, but this is a much tougher task traveling to Lambeau Field with a rookie Quarterback. I want to write up Derrius Guice this week as a play after his 30 DK point eruption last week, but he did that on just 12 touches and Adrian Peterson is still too much of a factor for me to go with Guice in DFS where we have every player available to us on Sunday. Terry McLaurin is also to expensive for me to trust with Haskins throwing him the ball right now, but I do think we can look at fellow rookie Kelvin Harmon at his punt price tag on DraftKings. He’s seen 6, 6 and 5 targets since the Redskins bye week and has churned out 10, 7 and 8 DK points in those games, he’s priced at $3,700 this week.
The Packers should easily win this game, and their 27 implied team total is one of the highest on the Week 14 main slate. It’s well known that Rodgers always plays better at home, and he is can be deployed in tournaments in a stack with Davante Adams. Adams himself can be used in all formats on both sites seeing 11, 10, 12 and 10 targets over his last four games, but we aren’t getting him at the discount that we did last week which could push him more towards tournaments only for me than cash games. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams continued a near even workload in Week 13, making either of them tough to trust even slated as massive home favorites. I can see why people would want Jones this week, but if I’m picking one I will lean towards the cheaper Williams.
Cash Game Options: Davante Adams
Tournament Options: Aaron Rodgers, Kelvin Harmon (punt), Jamaal Williams
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Saints 23.5, 49ers 21
Outlook: This is set up to be a fantastic real-life game, but not one that I’m overly targeting in Daily Fantasy contests. The Saints defense should be more healthy and usual and ready to go for this game after getting extra rest — remember that they played on Thursday in Week 13, not Sunday. The 49ers have won this season by running the ball effectively and playing dominant defense, that will be a tough ask against a Saints defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season. Their defense has also taken a hit which I pointed out the last few weeks as reason to target Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, the absences of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford have been tough for this defense to overcome against quality opponents. They mix their backs around too much for me to consider any strong plays at their prices, and I will largely be avoiding the 49ers this weekend.
On the Saints side of the ball, Drew Brees is extremely cheap on DraftKings and can definitely be considered in tournaments, but he still isn’t one of my top QB plays on the slate. Alvin Kamara, however, is one of my top Running Back plays, as we continue to get him at a massive discount. Since he has returned from injury, he’s seen target totals of 10, 10, 9 and 8…remember what I said about Davante Adams above? You’re essentially getting a WR1 in Kamara who also gets double-digit carries, and is due for massive positive touchdown regression. He hasn’t found the box since Week 3, yes I said Week 3 (!!!) despite having 17 rushing attempts in the red zone, with 6 targets inside the 10. I think this is the week we finally see Kamara break through with a two touchdown game, and we are getting him $1,000 less than he should be.
Similarly, Michael Thomas is one of the best plays at his position this week, but I’m heavily leaning towards Alvin Kamara in cash games and it’s unlikely that I would pair the two together. Still, he’s down to $8,300 on DraftKings after being $9,900 just a few weeks ago. I love him as a tournament play on Sunday, and you could potentially stack them both with Brees if you want to go that route.
Note: Dee Ford should be back for the 49ers this week, but that doesn’t change my outlook on Kamara.
Cash Game Options: Alvin Kamara
Tournament Options: Michael Thomas, Drew Brees
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Vikings 28, Lions 15
Outlook: Though Matt Stafford was in the lineup for Detroit, this game was a big-time shootout the first time these teams met this season and I’m actually interested in a number of plays from both sides again this week. David Blough put up 18 fantasy points in his first ever NFL start while looking like a State Farm insurance agent in the process, and could do so again this week against a Vikings defense that has gotten worse since the season began. Even at a cheap price, I’m not sure how high the upside is for him, so I most likely won’t be playing him, but I do have interest in both of his top receivers. TJ Hockenson saw 11 targets in Blough’s first start, and has since been placed on IR, which frees up even more work for Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. I’ve been attacking Xavier Rhodes since Week 1 with Julio Jones citing that he is now washed up, and he was in on Jones for the most part in their first game this season…the one where Jones scored FOUR touchdowns. I always personally prefer Golladay, but Jones is over $1,000 cheaper and while I’ve listed him as a tournament play, he actually could get bumped to my cash game pool later on in the week due to his price tag.
If you thought it was a good spot for the Lions, it gets even better for the Vikings with Detroit coming into this week allowing the third-most passing yards in the NFL. Dalvin Cook is expected to be ready to go for this game, but with him banged up and with the Lions having a decent chance of keeping this game close in my opinion, I think this could be a Kirk Cousins week especially after losing in primetime in Week 13. I will note that Dalvin Cook is an exceptional leverage play in tournaments at projected low ownership if he is active, but if he is for some reason ruled out Alexander Mattison would become a must play in all formats for me.
Should nothing crazy happen and Cook be good-to-go, stacking Kirk Cousins with Stefon Diggs is a fantastic strategy in tournaments. I’m not worried at all about Darius Slay who has struggled with injuries this season and was roasted on national television by Allen Robinson on Thanksgiving day last week. It looks like Adam Thielen will be out for this game, which gives a significant bump to both Olabisi Johnson and Kyle Rudolph as value plays. Bisi has seen 12 targets over the last two weeks, while Rudolph has five touchdowns over his last four games.
Note: The Vikings currently have the highest implied team total on the slate, yet none of Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Bisi Johnson are projected for higher than 5-6% ownership.
Cash Game Options: Kyle Rudolph
Tournament Options: Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Dalvin Cook, Olabisi Johnson (punt)
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Ravens 25, Bills 19
Outlook: Similar to 49ers/Saints, this is going to be an exceptional real-life football game to watch but I’m just not sure how much interest we can have in DFS with two extremely good defenses squaring off. The Bills purposely scheme to allow teams to beat them on the ground and keep everything in front of them which bodes well for both Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. Ingram is a strong play in tournaments in what should be a close game, while Jackson is once again playable in cash games due to his massive floor. For example, he managed over 25 fantasy points last week on the back of just 100 passing yards. If you’re looking to stack someone with him my first choice would be Ingram, but you can also look at Mark Andrews to pick up extra targets with Hollywood Brown expected to be shadowed by Tre’Davious White.
On the Bills side I’m not really interested in Josh Allen or his receivers this week given how well this Ravens defense has been playing, but the one guy I think you can use in tournaments is Devin Singletary. The Ravens allowed a monster game to Raheem Mostert last week, while Singletary is a much better version of him and he has continued his stranglehold on touches over Frank Gore as the season has progressed. All-in-all, I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game, and I think I agree with Sam’s statement on the Wednesday podcast that this might be the week for the Ravens to lose.
Cash Game Options: Lamar Jackson
Tournament Options: Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews, Devin Singletary
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Texans 25.5, Broncos 16
Outlook: I wasn’t initially interested in this game much, but the more I have dove into the matchups there more I am interested in the Houston Texans this week, as home favorites. For starters, Deshaun Watson is way too cheap, he’s third-overall in Quarterback scoring on DraftKings this season but priced as just the sixth most expensive option on this specific slate. I also have cautioned many times that I don’t like to spend up on QB’s that don’t run the ball (in cash games) while we don’t have to worry about that with Watson even though he hasn’t ran a touchdown in since Week 6 — perhaps he’s due in that department? The Broncos are another team that has struggled defensively as the season has wore on, particularly due to injuries. Over the last three weeks they’ve coughed up 26 DK points to Kirk Cousins, 20 to Josh Allen and even 17 to the corpse of Philip Rivers last week. Even with Von Miller expected to play through injury this weekend, the Broncos defense is bottom-eight in QB pressures meaning Watson should have time to throw, and carve up this defense however he wants on Sunday.
Both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are playable in all formats with Watson as your Quarterback, Fuller in particular appears too cheap and has shown the type of slate-breaking upside he possesses multiple times this season.
Despite the Broncos winning last week, Drew Lock didn’t look that impressive after the early parts of the game, which was expected. You can go back to Courtland Sutton due to the fact that he’s just that good, but he isn’t someone I expect to have a lot of shares of relative to other guys in his pricing range. My favorite Broncos player if I had to choose on this week would be Phillip Lindsay, who managed another 20 touch outing in Week 13 and has taken complete control of the backfield over Royce Freeman. But, I don’t have much interest here outside of Watson to Hopkins or Fuller as a stack. Even though Duke Johnson had a great game last week, I don’t trust Bill O’Brien enough to give him the heavier workload again this week.
Cash Game Options: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller
Tournament Options: Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bucs 25, Colts 22
Outlook: Outside of the Vikings/Lions game, and maybe Jets/Dolphins this is one of my favorite game stacks on the slate. Despite the total moving down since opening at 49, it still owns the second-highest O/U on the slate and the this spot is increasingly interesting for Jacoby Brissett as the Bucs defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s this season — that number jumps to the second-most DraftKings points allowed. They’ve been a clear funnel defense allowing the second-most passing yards and second-fewest rushing yards. Indianapolis is fourth-overall in rushing attempts per game this season, but I believe Frank Reich is sharp enough to attack this defense where is has been most vulnerable, through the air. Brissett will also get Parris Campbell back this week, a much needed weapon with Eric Ebron on IR and TY Hilton expected to miss again. Matt and I have discussed Jameis Winston’s negative splits against zone-heavy defenses on the Game Theory Podcast multiple times this season, and the Colts happen to run a primarily zone-defense. That is causing me to choose Brissett over Winston in game-stacks of this game, he has a better individual matchup and I also think he will end up lower-owned.
There’s too much going on in both of the backfields here so I’m going to be avoiding them and focusing on the passing games in GPPs. Marlon Mack is expected back, but the matchup is not good enough for me to stomach him in DFS.
So, who are we going to stack up Brissett with? Zach Pascal has played extremely well in the absence of of TY Hilton and he can be used in a stack or as a one off this week. I am interested in Campbell coming back who is under-priced on all sites due to his recent injury absence. People forget but Campbell was supposed to be heavily-involved in the offense this season both rushing and receiving like he was at Ohio State in college. he’s a 4.3 burner with a much higher-ceiling than he is priced for. And of course we have Jack Doyle, who can also be used in cash games after his monster game in Week 13 with Eric Ebron out. The Bucs have allowed fantasy-points to Tight Ends at a top-three rate this season and he is one of the best plays on the slate at his position. My initial plan is to stack Brissett with one of Pascal or Campbell + Doyle and both of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The zone-heavy scheme that funnels targets to the middle of the field bodes well for Chris Godwin, who also gets a bump up with Colts slot corner Kenny Moore expected to miss this game. Evans has slate-breaking upside every time he steps on the field, and if we think this game will shoot out, it’s not out of the question that both Godwin and Evans go off with how much the Bucs would throw the ball in that situation.
Cash Game Options: Jack Doyle
Tournament Options: Jacoby Brissett, Parris Campbell, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Zach Pascal
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Browns 24.5, Bengals 17
Outlook: I feel like we should have a burial for the Browns season for AC here, but then again, a celebration because if there was a week to stack the Browns, it’s probably this one (similar to the Dolphins game). Andy Dalton managed to win a game for the Bengals last weekend, and I’m not going to say we can’t target this Browns defense. That being said, I won’t have any Dalton this week, and will instead be focusing on his teammates.
Joe Mixon was finally given the proper workload last week, handling 23 touches resulting in 17 PPR points. The Browns have struggled to stop the run this season and I don’t anticipate them getting much better at it with Myles Garrett suspended, so I like Mixon as a leverage play off of someone like Devonta Freeman who is expected to be high-owned in his pricing tier. Tyler Boyd had another big game with Dalton under center, posting a 5-59-1 line on 10 targets. The Browns have been burned in the slot often this season thanks to TJ Carrie, and I don’t mind Boyd as a one-off, or running back a Browns stack in Week 14.
As for the Browns, I don’t have much interest in cash games but I think playing them a stack makes sense (and will be low-owned). Outside of the Pittsburgh game, Baker Mayfield has played really well down the stretch of the season and should do well in a soft matchup. This is a get-right spot for him and Odell Beckham at home, despite the down year production wise, Beckham is fifth-overall in the NFL in air yards, and ninth in weighted opportunity rating. I like a double stack with Mayfield + Beckham + Landry, and will probably avoid the ground game due to the presence of both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Note: David Njoku is back this week, but I will wait and see with him.
Cash Game Options: none (for now)
Tournament Options: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Jets 25.5, Dolphins 20.5
Outlook: I had this game completely researched and my lean was to play it as a stack in tournaments, but then we got hit with the news that Le’Veon Bell might not play due to an illness. If you watched this week’s podcast you already know that I was not interested in Bell as a play, but him being out would completely alter the slate and thrust guys like Bilal Powell into heavy consideration for all formats. That being said, I’m going to wait until we get some more clarity on that situation before I update my thoughts here, the one guy I’m really considering in cash games is Robby Anderson and I will cover him in my cash game article which will be out late Friday night.
As for Patrick Laird, he got up to 14 touches last week but even at expected ownership is not someone I am considering in cash games this week, another situation I will dive into in the cash game article. Stay tuned for the analysis once we get more news on Bell!
Cash Game Options: Robby Anderson, Patrick Laird (but I will not be playing him)
Tournament Options: Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Titans 25, Raiders 22
Outlook: This is one of my favorite games this weekend, as I have continued to pick on the Raiders down the stretch of the season. The Titans are also red hot winning six straight games, and will need to win this game to maintain a solid position in the Wildcard race. I noted last week how good Ryan Tannehill has played this season as the Titans starter, and it might just be a case where we never got to see what he truly could do. Now that he’s free of Adam Gase, he’s averaging 22 DraftKings points per game as a starter and is up against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing Quarterbacks. He’s in play in all formats at his price, the problem is, who do we stack him with? I prefer AJ Brown to Corey Davis for upside purposes, and I don’t mind a GPP dart on someone like Anthony Firkser, but my top option would be to just stack him up with Derrick Henry and lock in exposure to “all” the Titans points.
If they score through the air, it’s via Tannehill and if they score on the ground it’s a very strong chance that it’s one of Tannehill or Henry. Henry himself is one of my favorite Running Back plays this weekend, he is averaging around 30 fantasy points per game over the last month and this Raiders run defense has been crumbling.
The Titans defense is in the bottom-half of fantasy points allowed to Quarterbacks, and I never have interest in Derek Carr anyways. They are bottom-seven against Tight Ends, however, and that’s been the place to attack them all season which sets up really well for Darren Waller. He will be low-owned and is one of my favorite leverage plays on the slate. The Titans have also struggled with outside receiving threats due to the loss of Malcolm Butler, setting up a potential big game for Tyrell Williams. I prefer Waller, but you can run back your Titans stack with either, or use them as one-offs for low ownership in tournaments.
Cash Game Options: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry
Tournament Options: Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, AJ Brown
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Steelers 23, Cardinals 20.5
Outlook: This is one of the grossest games on the main slate, while other unappealing real life games are stuffed with fantasy viable options, this one is lacking in both departments. I’m not a big believer in Duck Hodges, being an upgrade over Mason Rudolph isn’t much of an accomplishment and the main reason that the Steelers have been winning games has been their defense. Benny Snell has plus matchup — the Cardinals have allowed the 10th most rushing yards in the NFL this season — but his lack of passing game involvement hurts his ceiling and takes him out of play for me in DFS. If he doesn’t score, it’s unlikely he has a big game, and Jaylen Samuels is there to take all the passing work if they are trailing. James Washington has played well since Hodges emerged, but is priced up on all sites out of consideration, and will probably see Patrick Peterson shadow treatment this week, despite Peterson not looking like his usual self since returning from suspension. I’m likely out on the Steelers overall this week.
The Steelers have been one of the best teams at getting pressure on opposing Quarterbacks this season, which does not set up well for Kyler Murray or this Cardinals offense as a whole. Some may be interested in Kenyan Drake who has taken over as the lead back, but this is not a good matchup and there are other guys in this pricing range that are just flat out better plays to me. Christian Kirk is the highest-upside piece of this offense and is a strong tournament play every week, but I actually prefer Larry Fitzgerald this week for his matchup in the slot we have picked on each of the last two weeks with Tyler Boyd and Jarvis Landry. If Murray is under pressure constantly, Fitzgerald’s 7.7 yard aDOT will help him as a safety blanket and if a Cardinals receiver was to score, my money would be on him this week.
This is probably my least favorite DFS game of the weekend.
Cash Game Options: Larry Fitzgerald
Tournament Options: Christian Kirk
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chargers 23, Jaguars 20
Outlook: This is another ugly real-life game, but we do have a few strong DFS plays particularly on the Chargers side. The Jaguars have been horrible down the stretch of the season, they’ve been handed big loss after big loss over the last few weeks, and their defense has completely crumbled. They’ve allowed seven rushing touchdowns over the last month, which sets up as an amazing spot for Melvin Gordon, who I don’t think I have played one time this season? They’ve fallen all the way down to the seventh-most DraftKings points per game allowed to opposing Running Backs, while Gordon has 17 or more touches in each of his last four games. He’s under-priced due to his recent play, but this is an exceptional matchup and he’s one of my favorite RB plays for Week 14.
I can’t sell myself on Philip Rivers with how bad he has played this year, but we can also look at someone like Keenan Allen in tournaments. My favorite option here, however, is Mike Williams who is under $5,000 after topping 100 yards last weekend, but still has managed to not score a single touchdown this season. We know that he can get you double-digit points even without scoring, because he’s done it multiple times this season, and he is still too cheap that I will consider him in all formats.
This Chargers defense wasn’t able to stop Rookie Drew Lock early on last week, but they played better as the game wore on and with Derwin James back healthy I think they will continue to improve as the season ends. Gardner Minshew replaced Nick Foles mid-game last week, but I just don’t want to go out of my way to roster any of the Jaguars receivers unless you (for some reason) were stacking this game. I do like Leonard Fournette in tournaments, who is projecting for sub-10% ownership this week despite the best matchup on the Jaguars. The Chargers are also top-ten in DK points allowed to the position, and Fournette has been usable weekly based on his volume alone. He’s been heavily involved in the passing game this season and I will be even more interested in him than normal due to his expected low ownership. He’s cheap enough on FanDuel that we can play him in cash games.
Cash Game Options: Mike Williams, Melvin Gordon
Tournament Options: Leonard Fournette
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Patriots 26, Chiefs 23
Outlook: Saving the best game for last, we have a rematch of last years AFC Championship Game while it also features the highest O/U on the main slate. I’m very excited to watch this game in real-life, and I think it’s pretty clear how I plan to play it for DFS. I think there are two Patriots players you can consider in cash games, and other than that it’s a great game stack in tournaments. Even though the Patriots defense has been dominant this season, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson both managed big fantasy days against them, meaning Patrick Mahomes can easily do the same. Travis Kelce would make the most sense as a stacking partner with Tyreek Hill expected to be shadowed by Stephon Gillmore, but if there’s one player that can get away from Gillmore it would be Hill due to his speed. All of the Chiefs project for low ownership despite the total of this game, and playing them together with the two Patriots I have listed is probably my top move here.
To Sam’s dismay I will not be playing any Tom Brady this weekend, but I will be heavily invested in both Julian Edelman and James White. Everyone on the world saw Tom Brady yelling at his receivers last weekend on Sunday night, and if the Patriots are going to win this game it’s going to be through the guys they trust — enter: White and Edelman. The Chiefs have allowed the most DK points in the NFL to Running Backs this season, and would it shock you to learn that White is second-overall this season in red zone targets? Edelman actually takes the crown with the most red zone targets — see why I’m interested here? And has as consistent of a volume tree as there is. He’s seen 10+ targets in seven straight games, but is not priced as such on either site.
Cash Game Options: Julian Edelman, James White
Tournament Options: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill
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Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
