Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill’s found plenty of success throughout the 2020 season. He’s thrown for 2,997 yards and 26 touchdowns with 5 interceptions on 379 pass attempts through 12 games. Tannehill’s also recorded 152 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground this season. He boasts a 6.9% touchdown rate to go along with a dominant 1.3% interception rate.
Tannehill’s averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game in 2020. He’s recorded 18+ fantasy points in 8 of his 12 games this season. He’s also recorded 30+ fantasy points in 3 of those games, including a 31.56 fantasy point performance against the Cleveland Browns last week. Tannehill’s flashed his floor at times, as well, although he’s been an extremely consistent option, who boasts elite upside, as well. A.J. Brown continues to be one of the best receivers in the NFL, specifically after the catch, but Tannehill has another outstanding option in Corey Davis. Davis has been enjoying a breakout season with Jonnu Smith (questionable) and Anthony Firkser also helping add to Tannehill’s passing upside.
Tannehill gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. They’re allowing 279.1 passing yards per game and 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt through 12 games. Jacksonville’s also given up 26 passing touchdowns this season. Furthermore, the Jaguars rank in the bottom-eight of the NFL in pressure rate (20.1%). The Titans are currently 7.5 point favorites in a game set at 52.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 30 points this weekend. The ownership will likely shift from the passing options to Derrick Henry, as many expect Tennessee to be leading late in the game. Tannehill is an efficient option, though, and comes with plenty of upside, especially in a matchup against a team that’s been absurdly inefficient in 2020.
Running Back
Wayne Gallman
Gallman’s found a surprising amount of success this season. He boasts 504 yards and 6 touchdowns on 109 carries. He owns 16 receptions for 72 yards on 21 targets in 2020, as well. In limited games, Gallman boasts 34 yards and 6 touchdowns on a team-high 17 red zone carries. He hasn’t been an efficient receiver, though, turning 4 red zone targets into 4 receptions for 1 yard without finding the end zone.
Gallman’s only played 35% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s seen a larger role in recent weeks with Saquon Barkley and Devonta Freeman dealing with injuries. Gallman’s recorded 15+ touches in each of his last 6 games. Over that span, he’s averaging 16.3 fantasy points per game. He posted double-digit fantasy points in each of those games, as well. Gallman will continue to play 50%+ of the snaps, as he’s proven he can contribute in all facets of the game, regardless of the situation.
He gets a quietly great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. They’re giving up 123 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry this season. Surprisingly, Arizona’s only allowed 11 rushing touchdowns through 12 games. New York’s offensive line gets a great matchup against Arizona’s defensive line in the run game, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Cardinals are also giving up 2.54 yards before contact per attempt, while Gallman ranks seventh in the NFL yards after contact per attempt (2.5). The New York Giants are only 2 point underdogs in a game set at 45 points, and they own an implied team total of 21.5 points. Gallman is a player that generally goes overlooked, but he makes a great option on a team that loves trying to control the clock with their rushing attack.
Giovani Bernard
Bernard’s struggled throughout the 2020 season. He possesses 253 yards and 2 touchdowns on 77 carries. He does own 36 receptions for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns on 46 targets this season. Bernard’s posted 45 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 red zone carries this season. He’s also recorded 5 receptions for 31 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 red zone targets in 2020.
Bernard’s played 48% of the offensive snaps with Joe Mixon dealing with injuries throughout the season. He’s been locked into major snaps without Mixon active, although he’s been a disappointment in the majority of them. Bernard’s flashed upside twice this season, scoring 22.8 and 20.6 fantasy points against the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns. Since then, he’s posted single-digit fantasy points in each of his last four games. His ability to play regardless of the game script makes him a high upside tournament option, specifically in an elite matchup.
Bernard gets arguably the best matchup on the slate against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is allowing a league-high 167.8 rushing yards per game. They’ve given up up 17 rushing touchdowns, while allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry, as well. Dallas is giving up a slate-high 3.21 yards before contact per attempt. The Cincinnati Bengals are 3.5 point underdogs in a game set at 42 points. They own an implied team total of 19.3 points. Bernard’s been terrible, but Dallas hasn’t been able to slow down any running backs in recent weeks. If Joe Mixon is ruled out this week, Bernard makes a high-risk, high-reward tournament option.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett
Lockett’s been a bit of a boom or bust option for the Seattle Seahawks. He owns 76 receptions for 834 yards and 8 touchdowns on 101 targets this season. Lockett owns a team-high 12 red zone targets, posting 9 receptions for 46 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’s recorded 1,050 air yards with a 10.4 aDOT, accounting for 28.9% of Seattle’s air yards this season.
Lockett’s a fixture of the Seattle offense, playing 90% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s been heating up, scoring 10+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. Most importantly, Lockett’s flashed as much upside as anyone in the NFL, scoring 40 and 56 of his fantasy points against the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. Surprisingly, he’s scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in 5 of his 12 games this season. He does own 20+ fantasy points in 4 games, though, making him an elite option in great matchups. One of Lockett’s biggest advantages is that he’ll virtually never be double-teamed by defenses because of his position in the slot and D.K. Metcalf on the outside.
He will face off against the New York Jets this weekend. The Jets are allowing 291.0 passing yards per game and 8.2 adjusted yards per game in 2020. They’ve given up 24 passing touchdowns this season, as well. Most importantly, Lockett gets a matchup against Arthur Maulet, who mans the slot for New York. He’s been targeted on 14% of his routes covered, allowing a 71% catch rate. Overall, he’s giving up 0.26 fantasy points and 1.07 yards per route covered this season. He’s graded out as a bottom-15 cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. The Seahawks are 13.5 point favorites in a game set at 46 points, and they boast an implied team total of 29.8 points. Metcalf is the player that will likely garner the ownership, and for good reason, but that allows us to play Lockett at lower ownership in tournaments.
Amari Cooper
Cooper’s seen plenty of ups and downs with multiple quarterbacks this season. He boasts 76 receptions for 891 yards and 4 touchdowns on 107 targets through 12 games. He’s turned a team-high 9 red zone targets into only 2 receptions for 3 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cooper’s also accounted for 26.3% of the Dallas Cowboys’ air yards, recording 1,006 air yards with a 9.4 aDOT.
Cooper’s played 82% of the offensive snaps for Dallas this season. He struggled when injuries hit Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, but Cooper’s found consistency in recent games. He’s posted 12+ fantasy points in each of his last 4 games, including a 26.2 fantasy point performance against the Washington Football Team. Overall, he’s posted double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his 12 games, and will continue to benefit from a healthy Dalton.
Cooper gets an elite matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. Cincinnati is allowing 257.3 passing yards per game and 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve given up 23 passing touchdowns, as well. Cooper is expected to get a matchup against LeShaun Sims, who ranks as PFF’s 11th-worst cornerback in the NFL. He’s been targeted on 18% of his routes covered, allowing an 80% catch rate. He’s giving up 0.41 fantasy points and 1.66 yards per route covered in 2020. Cooper’s a player that tends to go overlooked after the Prescott injury, but he still comes with plenty of upside, specifically in an elite matchup.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz
Schultz has seen mixed results throughout the 2020 season. He’s posted 48 receptions for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns on 70 targets. Schultz’s quietly seen a team-high 9 red zone targets, turning them into 5 receptions for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns. He boasts 483 air yards with a 6.9 aDOT in 2020. Overall, he owns 12.6% of the Dallas Cowboys’ air yards.
Schultz has played 82% of the offensive snaps this season, taking over as the starting tight end after an injury to Blake Jarwin. He’s struggled at times, although he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his 12 games. Schultz’s also flashed tremendous upside for the position, scoring 22.8 fantasy points against the Atlanta Falcons, although he’s struggled a bit since the injury to Dak Prescott.
Schultz gets an elite matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week, which has already been outlined above. The Bengals have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends, as well. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite in a game set at 42 points, and they feature an implied team total of 22.8 points. Tight end is one of the weakest fantasy positions, adding to the value of Schultz. He gets a great matchup and comes with more than enough upside to pay off his price tag, making him a solid GPP option this weekend.
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