Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Total: 42.5
Outlook: If Joe Burrow was starting for Cincinnati, this would be one of the most fun games of the weekend. Unfortunately, 2020 took even that away from us, and the appeal of this game in both real-life and DFS takes a major hit. I’ll start with Cincinnati because I have virtually no interest in them as a whole. Brandon Allen is not a good quarterback, and averaged under five yards per attempt in his Week 12 start. You could look at someone like Tyler Boyd in the slot as a one-off or run-back in a game stack, but I don’t personally play enough teams to get there.
Miami has a lot of question marks heading into Sunday, for starters we don’t even know who is starting at QB. My opinion here changes drastically on that decision. If it ends up being Ryan Fitzpatrick, which I think it will, it becomes one of my favorite tournament spots on the slate. A Fitz stack with both DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki would have a lot of appeal. Parker has smashed with Fitz at the helm over the last season and a half, and they have now connected for double-digit touchdowns. He has almost 30% of the teams Air Yards, and is one of my top plays in all formats if Fitzmagic starts. Gesicki is in a nut spot, as the Bengals have given up the most receiving yards in the NFL to his position. He got more involved last week, and is still top-five in Air Yards share amongst tight ends.
The backfield situation is murky. There could be a situation where Myles Gaskin gets activated and all of DeAndre Washington, Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida are out. If that’s the case, I would be interested in Gaskin in tournaments. Monitor the news up until lock on Sunday.
Cash Game Pool: Ryan Fitzpatrick (if starting), DeVante Parker
GPP Pool: Mike Gesicki, MIA RB situation?
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Total: 51.5
Outlook: This is an absolute smash spot for the Minnesota Vikings at home, and you could make the case for almost any member of their starting offense in all formats. The Jaguars have now allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Kirk Cousins has been on a tear in both real-life and fantasy scoring over the last month. Cousins needs a clean pocket to excel, and he should get one on Sunday. The Jaguars are bottom-three in QB Pressures this season and should be without their top pass rusher Josh Allen again in Week 13. They are also extremely banged up in the secondary, which makes it a clear stacking spot in GPPs. Especially with that 31 point team total. I slightly prefer Justin Jefferson to Adam Thielen for the big play ability, but I actually think Thielen will be lower-owned since he missed last weeks game. I will be in on the Cousins stack in three max contests.
Dalvin Cook needs no introduction. He has been one of the best fantasy running backs this season and has one of the most secure workloads in the NFL. Even off a down game in Week 12, he is arguably the top play at his position this week. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL. He is viable in all formats.
The only player I’m interested in for the Jaguars is James Robinson, and that’s who I am running back my Vikes stack with. He continues to boast a top-five opportunity share at the running back position, and like Cook, has an extremely secure workload. If they put up any points on Sunday, it’s likely Robinson is involved in some way.
Cash Game Pool: Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph
GPP Pool: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, James Robinson, DJ Chark
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Total: 45.5
Outlook: These late season Saints/Falcons game are typically ones we salivate about for DFS, but unfortunately that’s not the case in 2020. You’ll see below, I don’t have a single player in this game graded well enough for cash games. The 45.5 O/U is also lower than what you would typically expect. That’s what I like to call: the Taysom Hill effect. Some might be interested in Hill this week, but I would like to point out his 18 fantasy points last week was buoyed by two rushing touchdowns. Yes, he is a threat to run any close ones in, but I don’t want to roster a QB that needs to run in multiple touchdowns. The Falcons defense has actually been playing decent as well, and they just saw Hill two weeks ago. They should have a better idea of how to handle him this time around. Hill has relegated Alvin Kamara to a GPP-only play even in this delicious matchup. They’ve shifted to an even more run-heavy approach, which has breathed life into Latavius Murray. Michael Thomas has almost 50% of the teams targets with Hill at QB, making him a strong one-off in tournaments.
As for the Falcons, I just don’t have much interest personally. The Saints defense has been dominant down the stretch, and Julio Jones is once against banged up. Ridley has historically crushed the Saints secondary, and I like him a lot in GPPs. I prefer him to MT as a one-off in this game. Overall, I will be underweight on this contest.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: This game surprisingly has a 46 O/U, but doesn’t warrant much DFS consideration for me aside from some one-offs to fill in lineups. The Raiders laid an absolute egg last weekend against the Falcons, and have another early cross country game on tap in Week 13. The big discussion here will be what to do with Devontae Booker now that Josh Jacobs has been ruled out. I personally would be more interested in Booker if he was cheaper. He’s priced the same as David Montgomery, and is only $200 less than Jonathan Taylor. It’s likely that Booker ends up as chalk by the time we get to Sunday, and it’s chalk that I am completely fine fading. I am not saying to not play him if you want to, I just prefer Montgomery for the same price. I do think you could play both in the same lineup, however, if you want to go that route.
On the Jets side, I do expect them to be able to put up points against this Raiders defense. All of the receivers are in play for me, but I like Denzel Mims a lot at his price tag.
Cash Game Pool: Denzel Mims, Devontae Booker
GPP Pool: Henry Ruggs
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: This is one of the highest O/U’s of the weekend, but doesn’t appear to be a better game stack than that of MIN/JAX or CLE/TEN. Phil Rivers is not someone I roster in DFS, as I just don’t see him ever getting more than 25 or so points as an absolute ceiling. I am interested in some of his weapons, however, mainly Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman. Taylor missed las weeks game due to Covid, and most will forget he had his best game as a pro in Week 11. He carried the ball 22 times for 90 yards and added 4-24 in the air. He also had a touchdown called back in that game that would have sent him over the 100 yard mark. Houston is, in my opinion, the worst run-defense in the NFL. This very well could be the Taylor breakout game we’ve been waiting for all season, and I will be overweight in tournaments. Pittman’s ceiling I feel is capped due to his QB, but he saw another nine targets last week. I prefer him to TY Hilton, and his price tag is low enough he can be considered in all formats.
As for the Texans, a ton of ownership will be headed towards their WR group. Will Fuller has accounted for over 30% of the teams targets this season, and he is now suspended for the remainder of the 2020 season. This will push even more targets to Brandin Cooks, (already at 22% for the season) and Keke Coutee in the slot. I like both of them as cash game options, and this is definitely the cheapest they will be sans Fuller. Cooks is maybe my favorite play on the slate for his price. Given our interest in those two WRs, we can make a case for Deshaun Watson as well. I also want to keep an eye on Isaiah Coulter, who I think has potential. He should step into the WR3 role with Fuller out, and I won’t be shocked if he pops for a few big plays as the season winds down.
Cash Game Pool: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee
GPP Pool: Dehshaun Watson, Michael Pittman Jr, Jonathan Taylor, Trey Burton
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Total: 53.5
Outlook: This is my favorite game on the slate, and the best way I can break it down is by suggesting a game stack in tournaments. These are two horrific defenses, and I won’t be shocked if this game goes over the 53.5 implied points. The Browns profile as a run-first team, but they are going to have to score to keep pace with the Titans in this one. Like Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield is someone that needs a clean pocked to succeed. Good news is, the Titans are bottom-six in QB Pressures this season. They have no pass rush to speak of, and a beatable secondary. Jarvis Landry exploded last week vs the Jaguars, and he is my pick for a run-back in Titans stacks this week. He has talked about struggling with his offseason hip surgery this year, and how much healthier he has felt since the Browns bye week. Nick Chubb has also pulled away from Kareem Hunt in recent weeks logging over 70% of the snaps in Week 12. I like both him and Landry in tournaments, as well as Austin Hooper who will see no ownership at tight end.
The Titans are the money spot in this game, however, against a beatable Browns defense who will be without their top corner and safety. Ryan Tannehill has smashed as a home favorite for the Titans, and that’s the set-up we get in Week 13. I love him in stacks with both Derrick Henry and AJ Brown, just going all-in and getting all of the exposure to the 30 implied points for Tennessee. Speaking of Brown, his price tag should keep ownership in check. With Ward out, the Browns have nobody with a prayer of limiting Brown, and he is one of my favorite tourney plays on the slate. We also need to consider Anthony Firsker in all formats with Jonnu Smith out. Firkser was already running more routes than Smith, and the Browns are one of the worst defenses in the NFL at covering tight ends.
The path is cleared for Derrick Henry now that we have hit December. Searching for his 20th career touchdown in the month, I don’t expect him to have any issues with this Browns defense he carved up last season. Mike Vrabel also noted to the media this week that he wanted to use him in the passing game more…if that is actually the case…we haven’t seen anything yet. He is neck-and-neck with Dalvin Cook for the top RB play in Week 13.
Cash Game Pool: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Ryan Tannehill, Anthony Firsker
GPP Pool: Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Vegas Total: 45
Outlook: What says 2020 more than a Bears stack? Unfortunately, I think that’s where I’m headed in Week 13. We could see some inspired football form the Lions who will now be playing without Matt Patricia, but I’m not sure that it will make much a difference. They’re bottom-six in sacks this season, and will be playing this game without their top two corners in Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant. Mitchell Trubisky has shredded this team (actually) in his career including for 24 DK points in their Week 1 matchup. He is one of my favorite QB plays (actually) for his price and I’m strongly considering him in cash games. David Montgomery is extremely cheap on both sites, coming off a 25+ fantasy point game against the Packers. The Lions have surrendered the most fantasy points to running backs this season, and Monty’s usage has been extremely secure since Tarik Cohen went down. I don’t see the need to play him as chalk in tournaments, but he is at the top of my cash game board. If I’m playing Mitch, we have to consider his top receiver in Allen Robinson who is underpriced on both sites. His 28% share of the Air Yards is solid, and he did manage 5-74 vs this team in Week 1.
The Lions are almost unplayable for me at this point. Stafford has been so bad without Kenny Golladay, I can’t consider him on the road against this defense. You can take a shot on D’Andre Swift who nobody will touch due to him missing the last few games, but this is a fade spot for me. I
Cash Game Pool: Mitch Trubisky, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson
GPP Pool: D’Andre Swift
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Total: 48
Outlook: I don’t have this game graded high as a game-stack, but there are some extremely appealing pieces in all formats. The Rams continue to be a full-on RBBC with Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers. For that reason, I won’t have any exposure there but I do have interest in some of their receivers. Arizona has allowed the sixth-most receptions to the receiver position in 2020, and it sets up as a great spot for both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The Cardinals have bee flamed in the slot this season, which bodes well for Kupp. I also want to note that almost half of Woods’ routes have been in the slot, so the matchup is enticing for him as well. They are both underpriced on DraftKings, and will consider them in cash games leading up to Sunday.
On the Cardinals side, much as been made of Kyler Murray’s injured shoulder. I do agree that he is more hurt than they’re letting on, and it is affecting his play. While that aspect is tough to gauge, he has not been running the ball nearly as much since suffering the injury. I will likely fade him entirely on this slate against a tough Rams defense. One player I am interested in here is Kenyan Drake. Drake has been closer to the 2019 version of himself since returning from injury, and logged a season-high 25 touches in Week 12. Murray’s lack of rushing recently really helps out Drake, and he is one of my favorite pivots off the chalky 5K tier this week.
You can always consider DeAndre Hopkins in tournaments, and I also don’t mind a flier on Andy Isabella again this week with Larry Fitzgerald still out.
Cash Game Pool: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp
GPP Pool: Andy Isabella, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Total: 47
Outlook: Earlier in the season, this would have been a much more attractive game for DFS. The Seahawks have seemingly bailed on their efforts to #LetRussCook and with Daniel Jones out for the Giants, you worry about their ability to put up points even against suspect defense. We can still consider a Seahawks stack in tournaments. The matchup sets up better for Tyler Lockett on paper, but DK Metcalf continues to be the alpha in this offense. I think Metcalf can win in any matchup in the NFL, and am not scared of his matchup with James Bradberry. Metcalf is my favorite DFS play in this game by a wide margin.
It’s also worth noting that Carlos Hyde saw seven more touches than Chris Carson last week. This was Carson’s first game back from injury, and I assume that we will see much more of him in this game. He is in play as a one-off in tournaments.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Seahawks Stack, DK Metcalf
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Total: 48
Outlook: Coming off an abysmal MNF loss, this is a disaster spot for the Eagles on the road in Lambeau Field. Carson Wentz has taken the most sacks in the NFL this season, and continues to look broken in this hapless Eagles offense. Doug Pederson’s misusage of Miles Sanders is a joke, and renders him nothing more than a GPP flier even in a clear run-funnel spot. Dallas Goedert is the safest Eagles receiving option, but is threatened by the expected return of Zach Ertz. The Eagles are pretty much a full-fade for me, and I could see them getting steamrolled in this spot on the road.
I don’t often like to spend up on non running QB’s in cash games, but I’d be lying if I said Aaron Rodgers wasn’t an exceptional option this week. The matchup appears neutral on paper, but would anyone be surprised if the Eagles just fold in this spot and Rodgers lights them up for four or five touchdowns? He has 23+ DK points in his last six games, and I will be certain to get exposure to him this week. That exposure will come in a stack with Davante Adams, who could see lower than usual ownership due to a matchup with Darius Slay. Adams has owned Slay throughout their careers, and Slay was just dog-walked on Monday Night Football by DK Metcalf. We can also consider Bob Tonyan in a stack or as a one-off.
Aaron Jones gets a tough matchup vs this Eagles defensive line, and Jamaal Williams is quietly heavily involved. I don’t mind him as a leverage play, but my Packers exposure will come through Rodgers and Adams in Week 13.
Cash Game Pool: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Bob Tonyan
GPP Pool: Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Total: 47
Outlook: I haven’t been able to get a good read on this game all week, but I am surprised that the Chargers team total isn’t a bit higher. This hasn’t been the Patriots defense of old, and Justin Herbert has been good enough that we can consider him in tournaments in any matchup. I do expect Stephon Gillmore to shadow Keenan Allen as much as possible, but Allen runs enough routes in the slot to get loose from him for certain parts of the game. I do expect Bill to attempt to take Allen out of the game with bracket-like coverage, however, which further boosts the matchup for Austin Ekeler. Not only did Ekeler show no signs of injury in his first game back last weekend, he commanded 16 targets and 25 touches which is the most he’s ever had in any NFL game. He’s my clear favorite play in this game, and I want to be overweight to him on both sites.
As for the Patriots, does anyone know what to make of them offensively? Cam Newton does have a ceiling due to his rushing ability, but he isn’t really someone I’m targeting in Week 13. IN recent years, attacking the Chargers on the ground has been the move and that trend has continued into 2020. This sets up well for Damien Harris, but James White is still there to siphon usage away. I would prefer someone like Kenyan Drake to Harris, and will likely keep my exposure in this game limited to Ekeler.
Cash Game Pool: Austin Ekeler
GPP Pool: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
