Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers- Normally I have a very clear QB pool by Friday night, but that’s not the case this week. We have a bunch of guys in good matchups, but nobody that stands out above the rest. I typically only want guys that add a rushing floor, but with little to no rushing QB’s on the slate, (assuming Kyler is still banged up) increases my interest in someone like Aaron Rodgers. He’s been remarkably consistent this season, and isn’t overly expensive at $6,800 on DK.
Mitchell Trubisky- I laughed at myself for discussing Trubisky on this week’s Cash Process podcast. As we approach the weekend I think he remains my favorite QB option assuming Allen Robinson is good-to-go. Not only has he thrown for 3+ touchdowns in 4/6 career games against the Detroit Lions, he does have the ability to run the football as is extremely cheap on both sites. Literally almost every good game he’s ever had has come against this team, and they are down their top two corners again this week. They have no ability to rush the passer, so he should have time to pick out open receivers down the field. Locking in his value allows you to spend up on anyone you want, sickening, but maybe the move in cash game builds this week.
Other Options: Ryan Tannehill
Running Back
Derrick Henry- We have two star RBs to spend up for on this slate between Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry, so the choice between them is crucial. I think you can fit in both if you want to, especially on FanDuel, but if picking just one I lean slightly towards King Henry. The Browns run-defense looks good on paper, but they haven’t really faced a lot of capable running backs. In the few non-weather games they did face good backs, such as Antonio Gibson, they were trampled on the ground, The Titans should have no issues hitting their 30 point team total vs this suspect defense and that alone puts Henry at the top of my wish list. Few players in the NFL have a role as secure as Henry, and we know that he loves playing in December. He will be searching for his 20th career touchdown in the month on Sunday.
Austin Ekeler- Ekeler is always a better play on DraftKings where we get a full point per reception, but we simply can’t overlook his workload. It was his first game off a major injury and he logged nearly three fourths of the running back snaps while seeing an insane 16 targets. Those targets equated to over 30% of the entire teams total last week. We can’t project that again for Week 13, but it’s clear he is going to be involved heavily in the Chargers game plan. The Patriots have struggled vs the run this season, and with a weak linebacker group the matchup is a plus. I like him in all formats.
David Montgomery- Much will be made of the Devontae Booker vs David Montgomery debate this weekend, but I think it’s clear for me personally that Monty is the better play. There’s a stigma around Montgomery in the DFS community that he is bad at football. While I won’t argue that fact, I would question anyone thinking Booker is significantly better. Secondly, their prices are exactly the same. We get no discount by using Booker, and it’s only more fresh in people’s minds since the Josh Jacobs news broke on Friday. The Detroit Lions have given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season, and there’s no question marks. We don’t know exactly what Gruden and the Raiders will do without Booker, but we do know that Monty is getting nearly all the work, with some targets and goal line duties against a soft defense. Montgomery is a great cash game play, but can certainly be faded in tournaments.
Other Options: Dalvin Cook
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson- Reports seem clear that his injury shortened practice on Friday will have no threat to his status on Sunday. If that’s the case, this is an eruption spot against the Lions who have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards in the NFL this season. Still without both Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah, they just don’t have anyone to matchup with someone at the talent-level of Robinson. I like Trubisky a lot in this spot, and Robinson is underpriced on both sites.
Brandin Cooks/Keke Coutee- Will Fuller is out for the rest of the year due to a suspension, clearing up over 30% of the teams Air Yards. This is the cheapest we will probably get these guys the rest of the season. I have no issues with either of them or even playing them together, but Cooks is a near lock for me on both sites. He already had over 20% of the Texans targets with Fuller active, so we should see that number jump closer to 35% with him out. Coutee also has been on the field a lot more recently, and will be the primary slot receiver.
Robert Woods- Woods is a standout play at his price this week against the Cardinals. He’s vacuumed up 27 targets over the last two weeks, and has one of the best matchups possible on paper. The Cardinals have been shredded in the slot all season, and while many view Cooper Kupp as the Rams slot receiver, over 45% of Woods’ routes this season have come in the slot. I can see both Kupp and Woods thriving this weekend, Woods being slightly cheaper and can mix in for a rush attempt or two.
Denzel Mims- I expect most to look at Coutee for value, but I do think Mims is a solid option at just $4,100 on DraftKings. He has exactly 10 DK points in each of his last three games, and the Raiders are not a good secondary. They also will be without star safety Jonathan Abram this weekend, so I do the Jets to put up *some* points. I think the big game is coming for Mims as the season winds down, and would be willing to bet on it being this week at this price tag. Ownership should be relatively low.
Other Options: Davante Adams, AJ Brown
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph- With Irv Smith out again this week, we can look at Rudolph for value. Rudolph will be involved in the red zone, and this is a way to get cheap exposure to a 30 point team total.
Anthony Firkser- Firkser was already running more routes than Jonnu Smith, and now with Smith out for Week 13, the path is cleared for take off in terms of playing time. He has one 100+ yard receiving game already this season, and the Browns have given up the sixth-most fantasy points and second-most touchdowns to tight ends.
Other Options: Bob Tonyan
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
