Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky
Trubisky’s seen mixed results through slightly less than four games after being benched against the Atlanta Falcons. He’s thrown for 802 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 132 pass attempts this season. Trubisky’s added 101 yards on the ground in 2020, as well. He owns the highest touchdowns rate (6.8%) of his career, but he’s also recorded the highest interception rate (3.8%) of his career this season.
Trubisky is only averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game this season. He’s posted 21.78 and 24.28 fantasy points against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in his only games with 30+ pass attempts, though. He boasts 3+ touchdowns in 2 of his 4 games in 2020, as well. Trubisky benefits from playing with one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Allen Robinson. There are a number of young options in the passing attack that continue to progress for Chicago, as well. Anthony Miller’s been a disappointing option in 2020, although he’s shown flashes. David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney are arguably the two biggest surprises in the offense, and they continue to add to the Chicago passing attack.
Trubisky gets an elite matchup against Detroit this weekend. The Lions are allowing 262.8 passing yards per game this season. They’ve also given up 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt, allowing 22 passing touchdowns in 2020. Detroit also struggles to pressure opposing quarterbacks, ranking in the bottom-10 of the NFL in pressure rate (19.9%). The Chicago Bears are 3 point favorites in a game set at 44 points, giving them an implied team total of 23.5 points. Trubisky had his best game against Detroit earlier this season, finding elite success in the fourth quarter of that game. He’s a solid salary relief option in tournaments on this slate.
Running Back
Nick Chubb
Chubb’s been elite through limited games this season. He’s posted 719 yards and 6 touchdowns on 115 carries through 7 games. He’s only added 6 receptions for 49 yards on 7 receptions this season, though. In limited games, Chubb’s turned 16 red zone carries into 67 yards and 5 touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, he hasn’t seen any red zone targets in 2020, although he’s proven he’s fully capable of producing in the receiving game when given the opportunity.
Chubb’s dealt with injuries this season, playing only 28% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps. In 6 healthy games, he’s averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game, scoring 20+ fantasy points in 4 of those 6 games. In limited snaps, Chubb’s turned 32.7% of the carries into 40.5% of the rushing yards and 54.6% of the rushing touchdowns. He ranks second in the NFL in YAC/Att (3.0) and attempts per broken tackle (7.7). He’s also seen 19+ carries in each of his last 5 healthy games, posting 100+ yards in each of those contests.
Chubb gets an interesting matchup against the Tennessee Titans this week. They’re only allowing 115.5 rushing yards per game in 2020. With that being said, they’re giving up 4.3 yards per carry this season, while allowing 12 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. The Cleveland Browns are currently 6 point underdogs in a game set at 54 points. They boast an implied team total of 24 points this weekend. Chubb is a player that relies on Cleveland winning, as Kareem Hunt tends to be more involved when they are playing from behind. With that being said, Chubb has performed too well to be taken off the field, and he posted 3 receptions for 32 yards in his last game. He’ll go overlooked because of his price and Vegas line but Chubb comes with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Damien Harris
Harris has performed well through eight games this season. He boasts 561 yards and 2 touchdowns on 110 carries. He’s also added 3 receptions for 37 yards on 4 targets in 2020. In limited games, Harris has recorded 51 yards and 1 touchdown on 13 red zone carries. Similar to Chubb, he isn’t involved in the red zone passing offense, failing to record any red zone targets this season.
Harris is far from a safe option, posting single-digit fantasy points in four of his eight games this season. He does boast upside for his price tag, though, scoring 19.2 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills. Harris is a player that relies heavily on scoring, as he rarely produces in the passing game. With an injury to Rex Burkhead, James White saw his role increase last week. That didn’t take away from Harris, though, and the bigger news was that Sony Michel didn’t see the field. It’s likely that Harris continues to work early downs, while White handles the passing work once again this weekend.
Harris gets a quietly outstanding matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. They’re only giving up 120.5 rushing yards per game, but they’re allowing the third-most yards per carry (4.8) in the NFL. Los Angeles has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season, as well. The New England Patriots are 1 point favorites in a game set at 47 points, and they own an implied team total of 24 points. New England continues to rely heavily on their rushing attack in games, and this week will likely be no different. If Harris finds the end zone, he’ll make an outstanding option in tournaments for his price tag.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson
Robinson’s found success in 2020 in spite of terrible quarterback play. He’s posted 71 receptions for 829 yards and 5 touchdowns on 108 targets in 11 games. Robinson’s seen 11 red zone targets, recording 5 receptions for 39 yards and 3 touchdowns. He owns 1,037 air yards with a 9.6 aDOT in 2020, account for 28.3% of the Chicago Bears’ air yards.
Robinson leads Chicago’s wide receivers, playing 86% of the offensive snaps thus far. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his 11 games in 2020. Robinson also posted 20+ fantasy points in 4 of those games, including a 31.3 fantasy point performance against the Indianapolis Colts. In roughly 4 games with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, he’s averaging 6.5 receptions for 76 yards and 0.8 touchdowns (19.3 fantasy points) on 11 targets per game. In Trubisky’s first game back after being benched, Robinson posted 27.4 fantasy points, scoring twice against the Green Bay Packers. He’s a player that will continue to dominate, regardless of who his quarterback is.
Robinson gets a great matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are allowing 262.8 passing yards per game and 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve also given up 22 passing touchdowns in 2020. Robinson gets the worst matchup on the field, as Amani Oruwariye has graded out as Detroit’s best cornerback, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). With that being said, he’s still a below-average option, allowing a 51% catch rate while being targeted on 14% of his routes covered. He’s also given up 0.22 fantasy points and 1.29 yards per route covered. Robinson is a receiver that moves around the formation quite a bit, though, and Detroit isn’t likely to shadow him. He’ll also see plenty of time across from Jeffrey Okudah and Justin Coleman, who have been two of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season.
Breshad Perriman
Perriman’s seen mixed results through seven games this season. He owns 22 receptions for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns on 36 targets. Perriman only posted 1 reception for 15 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 red zone targets this season. He’s seen 554 air yards with an outstanding 15.4 aDOT. Even in limited games, he’s accounted for 18.6% of the New York Jets’ air yards in 2020.
Perriman’s only played 47% of New York’s offensive snaps because of injuries this season. He’s scored 10+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games. More importantly, he’s averaging 3.7 receptions for 78 yards and 1 touchdown (18.5 fantasy points) on 6.3 targets per game over his last 3 contests. Perriman’s biggest game came with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but he was targeted eight times by Sam Darnold last week. He’s a big-play threat that can find success with either quarterback.
Perriman gets a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend. Las Vegas is giving up 265 passing yards per game and 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. Surprisingly, they’ve only given up 18 passing touchdowns this season. Perriman is expected to get a matchup against Damon Arnette, who’s struggled this season. He’s allowing an 80% catch rate while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. He’s also giving up 0.36 fantasy points and 2.02 yards per route covered, suggesting he’ll struggle with Perriman’s big-play abilities. Overall, he’s graded out as a bottom-15 cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. The Jets are 7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 47 points. They own an implied team total of 19.8 points this weekend. Perriman is a cheap option with slate-breaking upside.
Tight End
Robert Tonyan
Tonyan’s been a breakout star at the tight end position for the Green Bay Packers this season. Through 10 games, he owns 37 receptions for 458 yards and 7 touchdowns on 42 targets. Tonyan’s an elite red zone option, posting 5 receptions for 46 yards and 4 touchdowns on 5 red zone targets this season. He’s seen 365 air yards with an 8.7 aDOT, accounting for 11.8% of Green Bay’s air yards in 2020.
Tonyan leads the Packers’ tight end in snaps this season, playing 62% of the team’s offensive snaps in 2020. He broke out earlier in the season, scoring 33.8 fantasy points against the Atlanta Falcons. Tonyan struggled a few games after that before posting 17.7 and 15.4 fantasy points in his last 2 games. He’s turned an 11.5% target share into 14.2% of Green Bay’s receptions, 14.8% of receiving yards, and 21.2% of receiving touchdowns.
Tonyan gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are allowing 210.7 passing yards per game this season. More importantly, they’re giving up 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve only given up 14 passing touchdowns in 2020, although I contribute that more to game script than their pass defense. The Packers are 9 point favorites in a game set at 47 points, and they own an implied team total of 28 points this weekend. Tonyan is a player that is dependent on touchdowns, and will benefit from a great matchup this weekend. He’s a great option at a weak position.
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