Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Eagles 25, Hawks 23
Outlook: This should be a really good real-life game, but on a slate where there are just a few attractive games, we will be looking here for DFS plays in all formats as well. Russell Wilson is right in the thick of the MVP race with Lamar Jackson, and this is another great matchup for him against a clear pass-funnel defense for the Eagles. The rational thing for the Hawks to do here would be to game-plan around their passing game and exploit the Eagles biggest weakness, but we can’t always assume that NFL coaches will do rational things. Seattle is fifth-overall in rushing attempts per game this season which is cause for concern, but the ceiling is still there making Wilson an exceptional tournament play. Wentz has struggled mightily down the stretch of this season, and with a few really good plays in his pricing tier I will not be targeting him in DFS this weekend, even with Agholor and Alshon Jeffery expected to be good to go.
I’m not as interested in Chris Carson this week due to the matchup, though I could see fitting him into a Seattle stack alongside Russ and Tyler Lockett. The thing we need to address the most here is the Eagles backfield, as Jordan Howard still has yet to be cleared for contact as of Friday afternoon. Last week we saw Miles Sanders step in for over 80% of the snaps, but that was with Jay Ajayi having just been signed. There have been some reports that Ajayi could see a significant role on Sunday, and perhaps he even takes over as the lead back with Sanders occupying his normal pass-catching role. I’ve seen this movie 100 times when it comes to Doug Pederson, and it does feel like he will mix in Ajayi if Howard misses. I’m going to tag Sanders as cash game playable if Howard misses for now, but I don’t feel great about playing him and will discuss it further in mu cash game article.
The Seahawks passing game is clearly the spot I want to attack in this game with both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf lining up in elite spots. Lockett got to heal up over the Hawks bye week and should be ready to roll against a really giving secondary. Metcalf in particular interests me in tournaments, he’s tied for fifth in the NFL in targets inside the 20 yard line this season and has a massive size advantage over both of the Eagles outside corners. I’m assuming they also used the bye week to get Josh Gordon acclimated, and we should see him on the field more this week than in his first game with his new team. The Eagles receivers have been a disaster this season, and I’m solely focusing on Zach Ertz in this spot. The Seahawks have been gashed by Tight Ends all season, and this sets up as what could be a vintage Ertz game and the best part is, he’s priced really cheap based off some of his past games this season. Take advantage of the dip this week.
UPDATE: It looks like Howard is out, while I like Miles Sanders I do think that Ajayi will be involved and I will be underweight on this situation as a whole.
Cash Game Plays: Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders (if Howard out)
Tournament Plays: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Browns 28, Dolphins 17
Outlook: Anthony Carson has long awaited a Cleveland Browns chalk stack week, and that day has finally arrived as the Dolphins travel into Cleveland. As you can see, the Browns have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 28, and rightfully so against the team that has allowed the 6th most total yards and 30 touchdowns on the season.
I want to take a moment and remind people that we can’t pick and choose when people are good or bad, and really this happens in every spot every day. Baker Mayfield has had a bad season by his terms certainly, but for the first few months of the season all that we heard all over Twitter and the internet was how he is a bust, and horrible, despite setting the rookie touchdown record last season. Now he has three straight good games against good defenses, and everybody is silent. If you are loud when someone is struggling, then you should keep the same energy on the other side! Anyways, the Dolphins are last in pass DVOA this season meaning this is Mayfield’s best matchup, at home, installed a big favorite. He’s one of the top QB plays on the slate.
I think I’m going to end up more on the passing game here due to pricing, but I think both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are interesting GPP plays. They will definitely be lower owned than the receivers, but there’s no reason that Chubb can’t outscore Kamara or Zeke Elliott on this slate. Hunt is intriguing based off his mid tier price.
We know that if we are stacking Baker it’s going to be with Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry. Beckham has a really cheap price tag for his ceiling and finally gets a positive matchup, while Landry has been red hot and gets to face his former team for the first time since getting traded. I lean Beckham since they are close in price, but think both are strong plays.
I actually think the Dolphins will keep this game close as well due to all the players missing for the Browns on defense. I would be looking to run back any Browns stack with DeVante Parker or Mike Gesicki, and I think you can take a stab at someone like Kalen Ballage in GPPs as well. There’s minimal to no good value on this slate, and Ballage’s matchup is better than most think, especially with Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon and Larry Ogunjobi all out for Cleveland.
Cash Game Plays: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Mike Gesicki
Tournament Plays: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Devante Parker
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bears 23, Giants 17
Outlook: This game is an absolute dumpster fire, and to top it off we don’t even know if we will be getting Mitch Trubisky or Chase Daniel at Quarterback for the Chicago Bears. I would be lying to you if I said I was excited for this game, but there a few plays I have interest in for DFS. David Montgomery has actually seen continually less snaps over the last month, and I’m not sure I can trust Allen Robinson with the Bears QB situation, so I will provide analysis on the two plays I’m targeting in this game below.
Saquon Barkley- It’s pretty evident that the Giants are a bad team, and I was burned by Barkley in his last game against the Jets, but I just can’t seem to quit him. The Bears have been dusted by pass catching backs all season — remember Latavius Murray week? And Barkley is particularly good in the passing game if he is being used right. They also have struggled to defend the run since Akiem Hicks went down with an injury, and it’s clear that anyone spending up for RB this week will be on McCaffrey or Kamara.
Golden Tate- Tate is one of my favorite lower-owned plays on this slate, particularly on FanDuel where is is price at $6,400. Evan Engram is set to miss this game for the Giants, and even with Sterling Shepard back he should see some more looks than usual. He draws Buster Skrine in the slot this week, who has been one of our favorite targets with opposing wideouts for the last few seasons. I don’t see him getting much attention this week making him a great leverage play on both sites.
Update: Looks like Trubisky is starting, which might be the the worst possible thing for the Bears
Cash Game Plays: Golden Tate (FanDuel)
Tournament Plays: Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate (DK)
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bills 21, Broncos 17
Outlook: This is probably my least favorite game on the slate, and it actually shocks me that I have a player here listed as cash game viable. That alone should tell you all you need to know about this slate. That player happens to be Philip Lindsay, who took over as the true number one back in Denver in their last game touching the ball 18 times. The Bills scheme their defense to allow yards on the ground while shutting down pass attempts, and at his price point I think Lindsay can be considered in all formats especially when you bake in his pass-catching ability.
Brandon Allen is definitely too raw for me to consider in DFS, and Courtland Suttons seeing Tre White shadow coverage is enough to keep me away from him. The Broncos defense has been really strong this season so this doesn’t set up as a spot for me to use Josh Allen, John Brown, however, has been so consistent that I will never X him out of my GPP options.
Lindsay is one of my favorite plays on the slate, but other than that I am moving on.
Cash Game Plays: Philip Lindsay
Tournament Plays: John Brown?
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Saints 28, Panthers 19
Outlook: This game features the third-highest O/U on the slate, but it doesn’t set up for as sexy as a game stack as the SEA/PHI game with Wilson + Lockett or Metcalf + Ertz or the TB/ATL game with Ryan + Julio and Ridley + Godwin for me, and honestly, I would have it below my favorite stack of the week as well which I will discuss in a game below. There are some great DFS plays within this game, however, and the good thing about these teams is that we know where the production generally comes from.
For the Panthers, it’s all Christian McCaffrey. He leads the league in scrimmage yards by a wide margin and I don’t need to go into details on why he is continually the top play on the slate. The matchup is tough, but even with Kyle Allen throwing four interceptions last week he was able to hit 33 DraftKings points. If there was a week to fade him, I do think it’s this one, and that is something I will dive into more in my cash game article.
We also have DJ Moore who has topped 90 yards in each of the last three games, and should get a nice bump in matchup with Marhson Lattimore expected to be out again this week.
On the Saints side, it’s Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, both of whom are great plays in all formats. Kamara does have to compete with Latavius Murray, but since returning from injury he has seen roughly 25% of the targets with PPR totals of 15 and 22. Thomas has a tough matchup with what has been a really good Panthers secondary this season, but he has been the best receiver in the NFL and I think he will end up lower owned than guys like Julio Jones and Odell Beckham this week, further boosting him from a leverage perspective.
Cash Game Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara
Tournament Plays: Michael Thomas, DJ Moore (if Marshon Lattimore out), Curtis Samuel
Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Lions 22.5, Redskins 19
Outlook: You’ll notice that we have a ton of ugly games this weekend, but the good thing about DFS is that everyone has the same games to pick from each slate and we are all going to have to roster some pretty ugly (not literally) players in our contests. Matt Stafford is out again for the Lions in Week 12 which gives us another look at Jeff Driskel who has posted 19 and 27 DraftKings points in the two games Staff has missed already. He’s averaging almost 50 yards on the ground for those games, and is going to crack my cash game pool due to this matchup and his price, he’s even cheaper than Baker Mayfield on a slate where we desperately need savings. If you’re looking to stack with him, I would lean Kenny Golladay over Marvin Jones always — Jones has 8 touchdowns catches on the year, but let’s not forget 4 of them came in one game against the Vikings. Golladay leads the team in targets since Driskel has taken over and I think he always has a higher ceiling, which is what I want in GPPs.
I’m going to continue my fade of the Washington Redskins offense for the continuation of 2019. It’s clear that Dwayne Haskins is raw and not ready, the offensive line is horrible, and what weapons does he have to throw to aside from Terry McLaurin? However, if you want the “trash can” play of the week as AC would call it, I think you can take an extreme GPP shot on Derrius Guice. It was a pretty split three-headed “monster” between Adrian Peterson, Guice and Wendell Smallwood in Guice’s first game back last week. That being said, he took a screen pass to the house in the second-half, and it’s only a matter of time before the Redskins hand over the reigns to him and see what he can do as they enter end of the season evaluation mode. The Lions run-defense has been crumbling in recent weeks, and Guice is projected for 1% ownership.
Cash Game Plays: Jeff Driskel
Tournament Plays: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Derrius Guice (dart throw)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Falcons 27.5, Bucs 23.5
Outlook: This is the only game on the slate with a total over 50, and just one of three with one eclipsing 48. What that means is that this is going to be the highest-owned game by far, and everyone will be stacking it up in tournaments. I think there are some cash game viable plays here, but I generally do agree that the best way to play this game is to stack it in tournaments or avoid it altogether for ownership purposes. The Falcons defense has been so good since switching defensive play callers that I have no doubts they can shut down Jameis Winston, and I think I would be comfortable betting the under here.
The Falcons are going to draw the main attention against a Bucs defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns through the air this season, Matt Ryan is one of the best Quarterback plays on the slate at home, indoors where he has always played better, but I personally have a tough time playing him over Russell Wilson who projects to be lower-owned. Brian Hill will take over for Devonta Freeman again this week, but I foolishly locked him in last week not really weighing how little the Falcons run the ball. The Bucs run-defense has been dominant this season and I will be avoiding Hill in DFS this weekend.
The Falcons are incredibly easy to figure out through the air with Austin Hooper injured, it’s Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Both are playable in all formats for me in Week 12, Julio in particular, is someone that I would like to be overweight on, It’s been a while since we had one of those classic 200+ yard Julio games and if it’s going to come, it has a strong chance of being this week.
If you think the Falcons are easy, it’s even better for the Bucs as we know that the production comes from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Like I said, I like the under here, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Winston struggle, but these are two of the best receivers in the entire NFL. If running back a Ryan-Julio-Ridley stack I think I will side with Godwin over Evans.
I plan on having a that exact stack, and then pretty much full-fading the game in every other GPP lineup I make for ownership purposes, pray for me!
Cash Game Plays: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan, Russell Gage
Tournament Plays: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Raiders 25, Jets 22
Outlook: This is my favorite tournament game on the slate, and I think there’s a good chance that I, and readers of this, get it at pretty low ownership. The Raiders have historically been pretty awful when having to travel cross country for early games, and their biggest asset this season has been running the ball with Josh Jacobs, something the Jets should be able to stop. The Jets have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season, so counting on Derek Carr to go win you a game on the road is a big reason why I think the Jets win this game. I never have interest in Carr due to his severe lack of upside, but the secondary on the other hand is not good, and both Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams get sparkling matchups — they are both good run back options with my favorite stack on the slate…
Which happens to be Sam Darnold. He has 20+ fantasy points in each of his last two games, and now gets a bad Raiders secondary at home. Oakland has allowed the 7th most passing yards this season along with the third-most touchdowns, while Darnold has been rounding back into form recently after missing extended time due to mono. Jamison Crowder has been the biggest beneficiary of Darnold’s recent play, but he popped up late on the injury report this week so we need to monitor his availability. This could finally be the Robby Anderson week we have been waiting for, he is cheap, and the Raiders have had a severe problem with defending deep threat receivers this season which just happens to be Anderson’s strength. Oakland is third to last in QB pressures, meaning Darnold should have time to pick out Anderson down the field.
They also have allowed fantasy points to Tight Ends at an alarming rate, while Ryan Griffin has been solid in the absence of Chris Herndon. He has a secure role, especially in the red zone, and is one of the top TE plays for DFS. If Crowder is in danger of missing this game, I would end up adding Demaryius Thomas to the cash game pool.
I have yet to mention Le’Veon Bell who I think is solid play at his price point, but I’m so in love with the passing games in this one that I’m going to be well overweight there, which will probably leave me underweight on Bell…which could end up burning me…
Cash Game Plays: Ryan Griffin
Tournament Plays: Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder (if in), Demaryius Thomas, Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Le’Veon Bell
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Steelers 23, Bengals 16
Outlook: Of all the bad games on this slate, this one truly could be the worst with both teams being banged up and their offenses just being bad in general. Mason Rudolph is set to be without both James Conner and Jaylen Samuels, and I can confidently say we won’t be interested in either him or Ryan Finley in DFS.
We can look at the Steelers backfield in tournaments, with both Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell set to see increased work. We should see Snell take over some early down work, with Samuels being a big pass-catching threat especially with JuJu Smith-Schuster out for this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if Samuels led this team in targets this week, and he is a great leverage play off of other higher-owned options in his price tier on DraftKings. Vance McDonald should also see increased usage, he saw 7 targets in the Steelers last game and will be one of the higher-owned Tight Ends on this slate.
The Bengals are a tough team to analyze right now with how bad their offensive line has been, and with AJ Green and Auden Tate both likely out for this game. The only play I’m considering here is Tyler Boyd who spoke out about his lack of involvement in the Bengals last game. The Steelers have struggled to defend slot receivers this season, and with Tate likely to miss, the Bengals could force the ball to Boyd early and often on Sunday afternoon.
Cash Game Plays: Tyler Boyd, Vance McDonald
Tournament Plays: Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Titans 22, Jaguars 19
Outlook: I cannot believe that there’s only two afternoon games this week and THIS slop is one of them, but it’s clear the NFL wants to prioritize viewers for the Cowboys/Patriots showdown in this same time slot. The Titans have been known to win ugly and grind out their opponents under Mike Vrabel and I expect that to happen again this week at home. They grinded out a win on the back of Derrick Henry over the Chiefs in their last game, and I expect a similar game plan in Week 12. The Jaguars run-defense has crumbled in recent week, they rank bottom-three in run DVOA and Marlin Mack was absolutely shredding them prior to getting hurt in Week 11. Henry has logged 17 or more touches in every home game this season and is one of the best RB plays on the slate, even with limited pass game involvement.
The Titans secondary has struggled even more so than earlier this season with Malcolm Butler out, which bodes well for outside receivers DJ Chark and Chris Conley. They both cracked my tournament pool this weekend, but the main target on the Jaguars has to be Leonard Fournette — especially on FanDuel where he is under-priced. The Titans have surrendered over 60 catches to opposing backs this season which bodes well for Fournette who has seen 6+ targets in five of his last six games. I unfortunately don’t think Henry will be a secret this week, which means we can look to Fournette as a pivot in our large field or single entry GPPs.
Cash Game Plays: Derrick Henry
Tournament Plays: DJ Chark, Chris Conley, Leonard Fournette
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Patriots 26, Cowboys 20
Outlook: Like I said above, the NFL has set it up for this to be the marquee game of the day, the problem is that I think it’s a much better real-life game than fantasy game. The Patriots defense has been dominant this season, and the clear way to beat them has been on the ground which the Ravens proved to us a few weeks ago. Given that, I think the Cowboys will come out and run the offense through Zeke Elliott per usual. It’s pretty clear when you watch the games that Tony Pollard is more effective weapon than Zeke right now in this specific offense, but the Boys are tied to Zeke given the huge contract they handed him in the offseason and this will be a game to get out of him what they paid for. It’s not really that I think Dak Prescott will have a bad game, but I don’t see any reason to play him in DFS over someone like Russ Wilson in this matchup.
Tom Brady popped up onthe injury report late in the week, and is listed as Questionable for this game. He’s not someone I typically play in DFS, but if he actually got ruled out that would negatively affect the Pats offense. The big news here is that it looks like there’s a very real chance they will be without both Mohamed Sanu AND Phillip Dorsett due to injuries. That will lock in both N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Myers to big playing time increases, with Julian Edelman and James White expected to dominate the targets. Harry is particularly interesting to me at his punt price tag, he was my favorite WR in this past draft and should get a chance to shine on Sunday on national TV.
Cash Game Plays: N’Keal Harry, Phillip Dorsett (if active)
Tournament Plays: Zeke Elliott, Julian Edelman, James White
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
