Quarterback
Baker Mayfield- I’ll come right out and say that Mayfield has certainly been a disappointment this season, but he also has fallen victim to one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, and is also coming off three straight positive fantasy games — point totals of 17, 17 and 21 against three really good pass defenses in the Broncos, Bills and Steelers. This will be his best matchup to date against the Dolphins who rank dead-last in pass DVOA this season, and the Browns actually currently own the highest implied team total on the slate at just over 28 points. He’s priced down due to these recent bad matchups, and now feels like the perfect time to jump on the train as a huge home favorite.
Jeff Driskel- I think Matt Ryan will end up as the highest-owned Quarterback on this slate, but I don’t see myself getting up to $6,700 in salary. So, if I don’t roll with Baker Mayfield, dropping down a few hundred to Jeff Driskel makes sense in a smash matchup with the Washington Redskins. Driskel has posted two really nice fantasy games in relief of Matt Stafford, buoyed by his rushing ability, and the Lions are installed as three point favorites on the road this weekend. I LOVE rostering rushing QB’s in cash games, which is why I often side with Lamar, Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson…but Driskel is actually really athletic and he is certainly not priced appropriately for this particular matchup, even with it being a gross game.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey- There’s no question that CMC is the top play on this slate once again, but the more that I have researched and written this week, the more I have realized that I think this will be the first weekend in a long time that he isn’t on my main roster. We have been awarded tons of amazing value over the past few weeks, and this week…it’s just not there. There’s really nobody under around $5,000 on DraftKings that I have any confidence whatsoever in, and while it’s certainly easy to play him if you want to, it does take a toll on the rest of your roster. It’s entirely up to you, but for me personally, I have liked my early builds better without him…not to say he’s a bad play, because he isn’t.
Alvin Kamara- The reason I feel so comfortable moving off CMC is that we get Alvin Kamara over $2,000 cheaper in the same matchup that McCaffrey posted over 30 DK points in last week despite a historically bad performance by his QB. Latavius Murray is definitely a concern, but Kamara has still seen over a quarter of the Saints targets since returning from injury and the Panthers have remained dead last in run DVOA for 2019. This is one of the best possible matchups for a Running Back right now, and that $2K goes a long way on this Week 12 slate.
Derrick Henry- Henry is a personal favorite of mine, I was well higher on him than the rest of the industry for season-long this season, and the time may have finally come to roster him in cash games on DraftKings. He isn’t in my FanDuel pool this week because he is MORE EXPENSIVE than Alvin Kamara there this week, yes…you read that correctly. He’s over $8K on FD and under $7K on DK…that automatically sticks out to me. Not only that, but the matchup is really good at home against the Jaguars who rank bottom-four in run DVOA this season. Henry has 17 or more touches in every home game this season, and I could see the Titans coming out and riding him to victory on Sunday.
Philip Lindsay- I expect Miles Sanders to be the chalk mid-tier RB this week, but I don’t trust Doug Pederson at all and I think that Jay Ajayi is going to be involved in the game plan this weekend, That has me pivoting to Philip Lindsay, who Sam discussed on out Thursday Game Theory podcast. The way to beat the Bills has been on the ground this season, and Lindsay actually saw 18 touches in the Broncos last game. He’s just $200 more than Miles Sanders this week, and I would certainly take the under on any chance of 18 touches for Sanders…so I’m going to take a stand with Sam and choose Linday if I’m living in this tier.
Kalen Ballage- If you really want to punt, it should be with Kalen Ballage NOT Patrick Laird. Look, I really have no clue what the Dolphins are going to do here, but the Browns run defense has not been good this season and they now are without Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi and Olivier Vernon. People seem to be overlooking that Ballage saw 6 targets last week, so if I’m throwing a dart to try and go stars and scrubs, I guess it’s going to be with him.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones- The Bucs have been the biggest pass-funnel defense this season, and this type of spot sets up perfectly for Julio Jones, who will also benefit from Austin Hooper being out again this week. It’s not often that I spend up at wide receiver in cash games, but I think that getting in one of Julio or our next player is relatively easy by dropping from CMC to Kamara like I stated below. I also have played around with a double-spend up at WR because I feel so strongly about these two guys this week…
Odell Beckham- I think Odell Beckham having one touchdown is probably the biggest surprise of 2019 so far, but this is definitely the spot to get him going. He’s under-priced relative to the ceiling of a player of his caliber, and he has faced an absolute gauntlet of top corners this season. This is the best matchup he has been in all season and it would make sense for the Browns to want to get him going in front of the home crowd, and he makes for an easy stack with Mayfield should you be playing him at QB.
Tyler Boyd- I just can’t quit Tyler Boyd, but if there is a week for him to go off…it’s this one. The Steelers have a really good defense, but the one place to beat them this season has been in the slot. They coughed up 4-43-1 on 7 targets to Jarvis Landry in their last game, and per Pro Football Focus over 60% of the touchdowns they’ve been given up have been credited in the slot. Boyd spoke out about not getting the ball enough after last week’s loss, and if the Bengals are smart (BIG IF) they will get him the ball early and often in Week 12 in a prime matchup.
Russell Gage- Gage has target totals of 9, 5 and 4 over his last three games without Mo Sanu, and sadly had a touchdown called back last weekend. He gets the same positive matchup as Julio Jones, and has a clear path to crushing his salary based expectations should this game stay close.
Phillip Dorsett/N’Keal Harry- It seems pretty apparent that Mohamed Sanu will miss this game for the Patriots, which should leave Dorsett and rookie N’Keal Harry alongside Julian Edelman this weekend. Dorsett has quietly been really productive this season, and he should be pretty high-owned at his price tag if Sanu does in fact miss. Harry, however, is a promising rookie who should see an increased role if Sanu is sidelined. He played much more than Jakobi Myers in his first ever NFL game last week, but I will note that Tom Brady is now questionable for this game and if he misses, I will most likely move off of both of these guys.
Tight End
Once again we will be looking to save at Tight End, especially since we’ve already established the lack of value. I will note that Zach Ertz sticks out as way too cheap to me on FanDuel, and I will be locking him into my optimal build there in a solid home matchup with the Eagles. On DK, however, I’m going to need to save as much as possible at that gives me four names to consider…Ryan Griffin, Vance McDonald and Mike Gesicki.
If you watched our Game Theory podcast this week, or also ready my game-by-game breakdown, you know that I’m all in on the Jets stack this week. The Raiders rank bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to Tight Ends, and Griffin has 18 targets over the last 4 games including tons of red zone looks.
McDonald will be the chalkiest of the bunch, the Steelers are reeling on offense right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner set to miss this game, the Bengals are putrid defensively and Vance saw seven targets in their last game against the Browns.
Gesicki is someone we have come onto late in DFS, he has always been super athletic and has seen 18 targets over the last three weeks. With Preston Williams done for the season, he should continue to see extended looks and the Browns have been giving to TE’s for multiple seasons.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
