Welcome to the Week 12 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our discord, click here.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs/Gabriel Davis
Allen continues to find tremendous success throughout the 2020 season. He’s thrown for 2,871 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on 364 pass attempts this season. He boasts 279 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Allen averaged 35.6 fantasy points per game in his first 3 contests of the season before struggling over his next 5 games. He’s posted 29.36 and 39 fantasy points over his last 2 games, suggesting he’s back on track to his early form. Allen gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are only allowing 228.7 passing yards per game, although they’re giving up 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve also given up 20 passing touchdowns in 2020. Furthermore, Los Angeles traded Desmond King at the deadline, diminishing their defense even further. The Buffalo Bills are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 53 points, and they boast the highest implied team total on the slate at 29.3 points.
Diggs continues to be one of the best receivers in the NFL, playing 91% of the offensive snaps for Buffalo this season. He’s recorded 73 receptions for 906 yards and 4 touchdowns on 101 targets. He’s scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of his 10 games this season, including 5 games with 20+ fantasy points. Diggs has turned a team-high 7 red zone targets into 5 receptions for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns, although he’s had multiple red zone touchdowns called back in 2020. He’s seen 1,030 air yards with a 10.2 aDOT, accounting for 34.9% of Buffalo’s air yards in 2020.
Davis has quietly performed well throughout the 2020 season, playing 63% of Buffalo offensive snaps due to injuries. He’s seen 31 targets, recording 19 receptions for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. Although Davis comes with quite a bit of risk, he also boasts plenty of upside, scoring 17 fantasy points against the Seattle Seahawks. He’s been used a surprising amount in the red zone, posting 3 receptions for 19 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 red zone targets. Davis quietly boasts 434 air yards with a 14 aDOT in 2020. The rookie’s accounted for 14.7% of Buffalo’s air yards this season. With John Brown already ruled out for this weekend, Davis is likely to draw the start and makes an elite option for his minimum price tag.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins/Dalvin Cook/Justin Jefferson
Cousins has seen mixed results this season, flashing upside in great matchups. Through 10 games, he’s thrown for 2,461 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He’s quietly been an elite option in Minnesota, averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game at home compared to 12.3 on the road. He’s also scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his 5 home games this season. Cousins gets an interesting matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who are allowing 245.5 passing yards per game and 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve also given up 16 passing touchdowns in 2020. The Minnesota Vikings are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 52 points, giving them an implied team total of 27.8 points.
Cook’s played 64% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps this season, flashing as the best fantasy back in the NFL. He owns 1,069 yards and 13 touchdowns on 201 carries, adding 25 receptions for 234 yards and 1 touchdown on 30 targets. Cook ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone carries (34), totaling 125 yards and 10 touchdowns. He hasn’t seen a red zone target in 2020, though. Carolina’s giving up 116.8 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry in 2020. They’ve allowed 14 rushing touchdowns through 11 games, making Cook one of the best options this weekend.
Jefferson’s been an elite rookie, playing 76% of the offensive snaps for Minnesota. He’s posted 45 receptions for 848 yards and 4 touchdowns on 59 targets through 10 games. Jefferson’s been a bit inconsistent, although he boasts games with 24.5, 42.6, and 33.5 fantasy points this season. Surprisingly, he’s seen only 2 red zone targets, posting 2 receptions for 16 yards and 1 touchdown. Jefferson’s recorded 767 air yards with a 13 aDOT, accounting for 32.1% of Minnesota’s air yards. He’ll see a bigger role in the offense and red zone if Adam Thielen is forced to miss this game for Covid. If Thielen plays, he’s an elite option in this stack, as well.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen/Hunter Henry
Herbert’s started nine games this season, flashing as an elite fantasy option, specifically for a rookie. He’s thrown for 2,699 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 350 pass attempts. He’s added 187 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Herbert’s scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his 9 games, including a 41.48 fantasy point performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He gets a plus matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who are allowing 238.7 passing yards per game and 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Surprisingly, they’ve only given up 15 passing touchdowns in 2020. The Los Angeles Chargers are +5.5 point underdogs in a game set at 53 points, and they own an implied team total of only 23.8 points.
Allen’s been unstoppable in 2020, playing 87% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps. He owns 81 receptions for 835 yards and 6 touchdowns on a league-high 112 targets. Allen’s posted 20+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’s coming off of a 38.5 fantasy point performance against the New York Jets. He’s turned a team-high 11 red zone targets into 8 receptions for 95 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s seen 829 air yards, although he only owns a 7.4 aDOT. Overall, he’s accounted for 27.5% of Los Angeles’ air yards. Allen will see elite volume in any matchup, making him a must-start in any Los Angeles stack.
Henry’s finally been healthy, playing 89% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps this season. He’s recorded 41 receptions for 435 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets through 10 games. Henry’s posted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two games, as well. He’s been a big part of the red zone offense, posting 3 receptions for 7 yards and 3 touchdowns on 9 red zone targets. He’s seen 574 air yards with an 8.7 aDOT this season. Henry’s accounted for 19% of Los Angeles’ air yards in 2020. Most importantly, Buffalo has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends. There are a few options that can be used to fill out this stack, but Henry makes the most sense, as he plays a tough position in fantasy and is in a great spot this weekend.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
