Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Quarterback
Daniel Jones
Jones’ struggled throughout the season, although he’s shown flashes, as well. He’s thrown for 2,122 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions on 334 pass attempts through 10 games. Jones boasts 384 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground, as well. He’s a player that could see positive regression as the season progresses, as his 2.4% touchdown rate in 2020 is significantly lower than his 5.2% touchdown rate as a rookie last season.
Jones averaged only 12.4 fantasy points per game over his first 6 games, including a 19.36 fantasy point performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the New York Giants’ first game of the season. He’s averaging 19 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games, posting 18+ fantasy points in 3 of those 4 contests. New York is utilizing Jones’ legs more, as he’s rushed for 64, 92, and 74 yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The Giants receiving group has dealt with injuries throughout the season but are finally healthy. Although Jones won’t have Saquon Barkley or Devonta Freeman at running back, he’ll have nearly a full complement of receiving options, excluding Kaden Smith, who has been ruled out for Covid.
Jones gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this weekend. They’re allowing 254.7 passing yards per game and 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also given up the second-most passing touchdowns (22) in the NFL this season. The Giants are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game set at 43 points, and they own an implied team total of 24.3 points this weekend. Jones’ biggest struggles have been finding the end zone in 2020. This is an elite matchup for him, and he comes with far too cheap of a price tag for this slate.
Running Back
James Robinson
Robinson’s been one of the best running backs in the NFL this season. He owns 762 yards and 5 touchdowns on 172 carries through 10 games. He’s posted 31 receptions for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 targets, as well. Robinson ranks 19th in the NFL in red zone carries, posting 97 yards and 5 touchdowns on 21 red zone carries this season. He’s seen a trio of red zone targets, as well, turning them into 3 receptions for 29 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Robinson is one of the few workhorse running backs in the NFL this season, playing 68% of the offensive snaps for the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Chris Thompson now on IR, Robinson could see an even larger snap share. He’s been extremely consistent, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of his 10 games this season. He also boasts elite upside, scoring 34.7 and 30.9 fantasy points against the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins.
Robinson gets a matchup against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. They’re only allowing 105 rushing yards per game. They’ve also held their opponents to only 4.0 yards per carry while allowing 9 rushing touchdowns through 10 games. The Jaguars are 6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 49 points, giving them an implied team total of 21.3 points. The game script doesn’t truly matter for Robinson, though, as he’ll be involved in the game plan regardless of the situation. His ability to contribute in the passing game adds to his floor on a weekly basis, and he could quickly become an outlet option for Mike Glennon, who will be making his first start of the season this weekend.
Salvon Ahmed
Ahmed’s played in limited games this season but has found success. He owns 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 40 carries. He also added 6 receptions for 36 yards on 7 targets through less than 3 games. Ahmed’s recorded 9 red zone carries, turning them into 25 yards and 1 touchdown. He caught his only red zone target for five yards.
Amed’s only played 18% of the offensive snaps this season, although he played 66% and 76% of the snaps the last two weeks. In his 2 starts, he posted 12.4 and 16 fantasy points against the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. Matt Breida returned last week, but Ahmed was the clear lead back, even after suffering a shoulder injury early in the game. Myles Gaskin returned from the IR earlier this week, although he isn’t expected to play at the moment. If he’s active on Sunday, Ahmed isn’t a player that should be used this weekend.
Ahmed gets an interesting matchup against the New York Jets this weekend. They’re allowing 111.7 rushing yards per game in 2020. They’ve held their opponents to only 3.8 yards per carry, but they’ve given up 12 rushing touchdowns through 10 games. The Miami Dolphins are 7 point favorites in a game set at 44.5 points. They own an implied team total of 25.8 points. The Dolphins are likely to be running out the clock late in the game, as many opponents do against New York. This is a play that is dependent on injury news, though. If Gaskin is out, Ahmed makes an outstanding tournament option. If Ahmed is also out, Brieda will make a great play for the minimum price on this slate.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd
Boyd’s been enjoying an outstanding season through 10 games. He’s posted 69 receptions for 710 yards and 3 touchdowns on 87 targets. Boyd’s seen a team-high 11 red zone targets, turning them into 7 receptions for 59 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s seen 731 air yards with an 8.4 aDOT, accounting for 20.1% of the Cincinnati Bengals’ air yards in 2020.
Boyd leads Cincinnati’s receivers in offensive snaps, playing 78% of them thus far. He’s posted 15+ fantasy points in 6 of his 10 games, including a 30.74 fantasy point performance against the Cleveland Browns. Boyd’s recorded 25.8% of Cincinnati’s receptions, 26% of receiving yards, and 23.1% of receiving touchdowns on a 21.6% target share this season. The biggest concern for Boyd is the injury to Joe Burrow. After the injury to Burrow last week, Ryan Finley continued to show that he isn’t an NFL quarterback. Instead, Cincinnati will start Brandon Allen. Allen started three games last season, flashing the ability to at least get his receivers the ball in those contests.
Boyd gets a great matchup against the New York Giants, who are allowing 257.7 passing yards per game this season. They’ve only given up 15 passing touchdowns in 2020, although they’re allowing 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt. Boyd gets a matchup against Darnay Holmes, who’s graded out as the sixth-worst cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Holmes has been targeted on 20% of his routes covered, allowing an 80% catch rate. He’s giving up 1.56 yards per route covered in 2020, as well. The Bengals are 5.5 point underdogs in a game set at 43 points, and they own an implied team total of only 18.8 points. They’re likely to be playing from behind throughout this game, allowing Boyd to continue to be a focal point of the offense.
Julio Jones
Jones has dealt with multiple injuries this season, playing only eight games. He owns 45 receptions for 677 yards and 3 touchdowns on 58 targets. He’s seen 8 red zone targets, posting 4 receptions for 29 yards on them without finding the end zone. He’s recorded 684 air yards with an 11.8 aDOT. Overall, he owns 19.8% of the Atlanta Falcons’ air yards this season.
Jones has only played 56% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in 2020, although he’s locked into major snaps whenever he’s healthy. He’s played 75% or more of the offensive snaps in 6 of his 8 games this season. In those games, he’s averaging 6.5 receptions for 101 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 8.7 targets per game. He’s averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game in those contests. Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury, adding to his risk this weekend. Still, he’s an elite option if he suits up, especially in a great matchup.
Jones gets a great matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend. They’re giving up 273.6 passing yards per game and 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also allowed 16 passing touchdowns. Jones is expected to play the majority of his snaps against Damon Arnette, who has struggled this season. He’s only been targeted on 15% of his routes covered, allowing a 79% catch rate. Arnette is also giving up 1.97 yards per route covered and could struggle with Jones’ big-play ability. The Falcons are 3 point underdogs in a game set at 54 points, giving them an implied team total of 25.5 points. Jones always makes an elite option when he’s healthy, especially for this low of a price tag.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski’s seen plenty of ups and downs in his first season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Through 11 games, he’s posted 31 receptions for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns on 55 targets. He ranks second on the team, recording 5 receptions for 33 yards and 4 touchdowns on 9 red zone targets. Gronkowski’s seen 633 air yards with an 11.5 aDOT this season. He’s accounted for 16.7% of Tampa Bay’s air yards in 2020.
Gronkowski leads Tampa Bay’s tight ends, playing 78% of the offensive snaps this season. After struggling early in the season he’s posted double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games, including 17.2 and 18.8 fantasy point performances against the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers. Overall, Gronkowski’s turned a 13.1% target share into 11.1% of the team’s receptions, 13.5% of receiving yards, and 16% of receiving touchdowns.
He gets a plus matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing 221.6 passing yards per game in 2020. They’re also giving up 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt to go along with 14 passing touchdowns this season. Most importantly, Kansas City has struggled against tight ends throughout the season. Tampa Bay is a 3 point underdog in a game set at 55.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 26.3 points. Tight end is far from a consistent position, and Gronkowski comes with plenty of upside for his price tag.
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