Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team
Vegas Total: 46.5
Outlook: Despite a mediocre (2020 standards) O/U, this Cincy/Washington games provides plenty of fantasy goodness. Joe Burrow has impressed early on in his NFL career, and flashed upside with his legs which he quietly showcased at LSU. Washington has already allowed four touchdowns on the ground to opposing QB’s, and this is a potential ceiling spot for Burrow should this offensive line hold their ground. While Burrow is completely playable as a one-off in cash games, my favorite stack with him per usual is Tee Higgins. Higgins has completely usurped AJ Green as the alpha in this offense, and Tyler Boyd should be locked onto Jim Moreland who has been one of the the best coverage corners in the NFL this season.
Joe Mixon has been ruled out for this game, given the amount of value on this slate I won’t call Gio Bernard a cash game play, but he will be firmly in my GPP pool.
As of the Redskins, this is the best matchup Alex Smith has literally seen in years. The Bengals are allowing 28 points per game on defense and rank bottom-four in QB pressures. We can’t count on him to push the ball down the field, but I am interested in a few of his weapons. Starting with the backfield, I think both of Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic are tournament viable this weekend. Gibson has broken through his four touchdowns over the last three weeks, and would benefit from the Football Team being up in a game — they are 1.5 point favorites in this contest. I actually will probably bump Gibson to the cash game pool in my Final Thoughts sheet. While he has a higher ceiling, I can’t ignore McKissic’s 14 and 15 targets over the last two weeks. Smith is willingly checking the ball down to him when he’s in the game, and it’s not like he wasn’t a prolific pass catcher in college.
Terry McLaurin still leads the NFL with a 41% share of the teams Air Yards, and has still been the favorite non-McKissic target of Smith. The Bengals secondary has been absolutely abused over the last month, and they are now allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. I was all-in on Scary Terry in Week 10, and will be going back to the well this week. Logan Thomas also checks the box, as the Bengals have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to his position this season.
Cash Game Pool: Joe Burrow, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas
GPP Pool: Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic (DK), Tee Higgins, Gio Bernard
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: Despite nearly the same O/U as the first game discussed, there is much less fantasy goodness to be found here. I just don’t see how the Jaguars can stay in this game, and I fully expect the Steelers to roll their way to 10-0. This is a smash spot for the Steelers offense, and if I had any confidence in the Jags putting up points I would be in on the Steelers stack. All of Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool have a case to be made for them in tournaments. Of the four, Johnson sticks out above the rest for cash games given his double-digit target floor. James Conner logged over 85% of the snaps last week after we saw the back-ups get more involved vs Dallas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score in this game, but there are so many backs I like in the mid-range I will likely be avoiding him altogether.
On the Jaguars side, I would mainly be looking at James Robinson as a tourney pivot. The Steelers run-defense has been pretty leaky sans Devin Bush, and Robinson has one of the most secure workloads on the slate. The Steelers will bring the heat with blitzes on Sunday, and Robinson could see a target increase as a safety blanker. If looking for a run-back with a Steelers stack, it would have to be DJ Chark who has seen his volume come to life with Jake Luton under center.
Cash Game Pool: Diontae Johnson
GPP Pool: JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Robinson
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Vegas Total: 49
Outlook: On the surface this game is ugly, but this 49 O/U cannot be ignored. The Texans lack of defense will continue to push them into shootouts weekly, and this is a potential ceiling spot for the Patriots offense. They’re the most run-heavy team in the NFL, so we don’t necessarily like that for DFS, but the Texans also have maybe the worst run-defense in the NFL. All of Cam Newton, Damien Harris and Jakobi Meyers are in play for me from New England this week. Meyers’ in particular should be pretty chalky, he is under $5K on DK and is now leading the team in targets with 37.
The Patriots defense hasn’t been very Patriot-like due to injuries and opt-outs. They actually rank bottom-ten in sacks, which is huge for someone like Watson who is constantly under pressure. I like Watson as much as I do Cam in tournaments, and he can be deployed with either of Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks. Cooks gets the slightly better matchup, and gets a revenge narrative against his former team.
Duke Johnson is positioned for bell cow usage again in Week 11, and is my favorite play from this game. Likely to go overlooked after last weeks disappointment against the Browns, Johnson still logged every rush attempt for the Texans. He will be on the field nearly 100% of the time this week, and is underpriced for that level of work.
Cash Game Pool: Duke Johnson, Jakobi Meyers
GPP Pool: Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson, Texans WRs, Damien Harris
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Total: 49.5
Outlook: Reeling after a midseason offensive sputter, this is a get-right spot at home for the Ravens offense. They’ve lacked creativity at times on offense, and reportedly other teams have been able to call out their plays prior to the snap. I’m curious to see how they look this Sunday, and while I won’t be targeting any of them in cash games, this is a great three max stack opportunity. We know where the volume will go once it’s leaves Jackson’s hands, and that’s Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews. I’ve been chasing that Hollywood Brown smash week all season, and I can’t stop trying to capture it in this matchup. Brown is neck-and-neck with Terry McLaurin with a 41% market-share of the Ravens Air Yards, and his frustration with the offense should continue to incentivize them to get the ball to him early and often. The Titans are bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season, signaling a potential eruption.
I’m not as enthused with the Titans side of this game, and I typically value Ryan Tannehill stacks when he is favored at home. That being said, one of the best potential tournament plays on the slate is Derrick Henry. I actually toyed with including Henry in my cash game article, citing what he was able to do this Ravens run-defense in the playoffs last season. The Titans line is really banged up, but the Ravens will also likely be without both Brandon Williams AND Calais Campbell for this game. Be sure to check Final Thoughts, but the idea of Henry is really starting to grow on me. Either way, I’m planning to be overweight.
Cash Game Pool: None (for now)
GPP Pool: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, Derrick Henry
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Total: 46.5
Outlook: This is a tough one to break down, seeing as it’s Friday and we have no idea who is starting for the Panthers at Quarterback. I’m actually hoping it’s PJ Walker, but I will update my thoughts on the Panthers when we get that news.
As for the Lions, they were struck with the injury bug this week, already missing Kenny Golladay they will now be without both D’Andre Swift and Danny Amendola as well. Swift was coming off a career-high snap rate and usage, and was primed for a massive week against a bottom-five run-defense. We will see both Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson involved this week, but I personally think Peterson logs more of the work and he is the one I would be taking a stab on in tournaments. It’s not really my brand to play old running backs that lack pass catching upside, but the matchup speaks for itself and I doubt he ends up with much ownership.
The passing game is a complete mystery after Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson, who are both in play. Jones TD-dependent nature warrants him more for tournaments, while Hockenson is in line for what should be his best usage of the season. He is priced in the basement on DraftKings, and is my favorite tight end play on the slate in all formats (not on FD).
Cash Game Pool: TJ Hockenson
GPP Pool: Marvin Jones, Adrian Peterson, Panthers?
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: There’s a possibility for some more sketchy weather in Cleveland this Sunday, regardless I think this may end up as a pretty sloppy game. Baker Mayfield continually has struggled under pressure in the NFL, and the Eagles come into Week 11 third in sacks. I’m pretty much off the Browns offense here, but I could see Austin Hooper being used more heavily as a safety net for Mayfield. They showed strong chemistry earlier this season, and the Eagles are bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to the position. You can always make the case for Nick Chubb in tournaments, but Kareem Hunt’s presence will lower his ceiling and the likelihood of the Browns winning took a massive hit when Myles Garrett was ruled out.
Speaking of Garrett being out, this is a massive bump for the Eagles chances of getting on track offensively. Miles Sanders has posted some huge games in tough matchups this season, despite getting trolled twice on touchdowns in Week 10, I’m in on him in tourneys once again this week. The absence of Garrett boosts Carson Wentz chance of throwing from a clean pocket, which would do wonders for his fantasy production. Both Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert are primed for big weeks here, and I like both in all formats. Reagor is patiently waiting for his first big NFL game, and he led the team in Air Yards % last week. Goedert is a recency bias play, as everyone will avoid him after a chalk disappointment last week despite the even better matchup vs Cleveland.
Cash Game Pool: Jalen Reagor
GPP Pool: Austin Hooper, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Total: 49.5
Outlook: With the news that Taysom Hill is expected to start at Quarterback, this game becomes a complete wildcard. For starters, his rushing ability and price thrusts him into play in all formats on DK, while his tight end positional eligibility renders him a must play on FanDuel. What this does, however, is add uncertainty to the rest of the team. He will surely take away from Alvin Kamara on the ground and in the red zone, and we have no clue what he will do throwing the ball. That being said, this is one of the best game environments on the slate, and Hill’s presence as starter will severely knock the ownership on both Kamara and Michael Thomas. I like Kamara as leverage off of Hill in tournaments.
The Falcons are fresh off their bye and as healthy as they’ve been in weeks. I do expect them to put up points in this game, and wouldn’t be shocked to see them win the game if Hill indeed plays QB. With Calvin Ridley back healthy, neither him nor Julio Jones are cash game plays, but both are fantastic ceiling-GPP options. I don’t expect either to rival Davante Adams in ownership, and despite the lower O/U, I think this is a better fantasy game. You can do the Todd Gurley thing if you want, but there is an abundance of mid-tier RB plays that stand out in Week 11.
I think the game stack is in order here, but I will be way underweight on Hill in tournaments if I play him in cash games. I like the Falcons side with a Kamara run-back — or Kamara as a one-off in my three max entries. Him vs Derrick Henry is a legit question right now.
Cash Game Pool: Taysom Hill
GPP Pool: Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
Vegas Total: 45.5
Outlook: Afternoon games will be posted by 2PM!
Cash Game Pool: None (For now)
GPP Pool: Salvon Ahmed, Jerry Jeudy, DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Changers
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: Even with the Jets coming off their bye week, this is a get-right spot at home for the Chargers offense coming off a tough loss to the Dolphins. The Jets are allowing 30 points per game on defense, and Justin Herbert has thrust himself into the spotlight averaging over 23 fantasy points per game. He is one of my favorite QB options on the slate, and can be easily paired with target hog Keenan Allen. Allen has been pretty chalky the last few weeks, but it seems like he is getting less buzz than usual in one of his best matchups to date. The backfield situation has been a mess in LA, but Kalen Ballage (LOL) has worked his way into a lead back role with Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson both out. Anthony Lynn said he wanted to get him even more involved this week, and this is a guy with 17 or more touches in each of his last two games. The Jets have been abused both on the ground and by pass catching backs, and Ballage can do both. He is surprisingly one of my favorite point per dollar plays on the Week 11 slate.
With Sam Darnold still out and a murky backfield, I’m mainly looking for run-back options for my Herbert stack. I can’t overlook Denzel Mims emergence, but Jamison Crowder should be healthy post-bye and gets a much better matchup in the slot. I expect Crowder to be under-owned on Sunday.
Cash Game Pool: Kalen Ballage, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen
GPP Pool: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Hunter Henry
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: This game features a monster O/U of 51, but I’m having a hard time getting excited about any of the plays. The Colts defense has been legitimately suffocating this season in terms of fantasy points allowed, and they should be fresh coming off a mini-bye following their win over the Titans last Thursday night. This is one of the toughest spots to date for Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Adams has the most secure workload in the NFL, but the Colts have been able to completely scheme WR1’s out of games this season. We still have to consider Adams viable in all formats due to his volume alone, but I’m likely to be underweight on the Packers as a whole.
If I’m underweight on the Packers, I’m certainly going top follow suit with the Phil Rivers-led Colts offense. Green Bay has been a legitimate run-funnel defense with Jaire Alexander active, and we still have what will be a committee in the backfield for the Colts. As much as I love Jonathan Taylor, his fumbles have cost him some playing time and we should see Nyheim Hines lead them in snaps and touches again this week — unless something changed at practice over the last ten days.
Michael Pittman fully broke out from a playing time standpoint in that Thursday night game, and I will be excited to see that continue this week. The matchup is much worse than the Titans secondary, but you could consider Pittman a GPP play at his price if you feel that strongly about him.
Cash Game Pool: Davante Adams
GPP Pool: Aaron Jones
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: This is a smash spot at home for Kirk Cousins, who has quietly become one of the heaviest home/road splits QB’s in the NFL. He is significantly better at home in Minnesota, and I love him as a leverage play in stacks with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, or both as leverage off of Dalvin Cook. Speaking of Cook, he is virtually the safest running back play on the slate. He has went over 21 touches in each game since returning from injury, and has one of the safest red zone roles at any position. Both of Jefferson and Thielen are amazing plays, while Jefferson gets the edge in cash games due to price. He has more yards than Thielen this season even if you subtract his best game, while Thielen continues to be a target hog and has remained top-five in Air Yards share. It looks like Irv Smith will miss this week as well, which does give Kyle Rudolph a bump up in all formats.
Even in a great matchup, the Cowboys are a tougher sell for me with Dalton at QB. I actually think he is a capable game manager in real-life, but he lacks the ceiling I want from my DFS quarterback. The Vikings are still bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, however, which vaults Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb into play at basement-level price tags. Cooper has been Dalton’s go-to in games he’s played, but the Vikings have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the slot. I like both in tournaments, or as run-backs in Vikings stacks.
The Zeke Elliott situation is one of the top question marks on the slate. If I had any confidence in his health I would be all-in at this price tag. Unfortunately, it sounds like he himself even has questions about his hamstrings, so I will likely avoid him in favor of other similarly priced backs.
Cash Game Pool: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson
GPP Pool: Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, CeeDee Lamb, Zeke Elliott, Kyle Rudolph
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
