New York Jets @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Redskins 20, Jets 19
Outlook: We kick off Week 11 with one of the ugliest games on the entire slate, Sam Darnold vs Dwayne Haskins. Darnold posted over 20 DK points in Week 10 for the first time since Week 6, and for only the second time this season. This is a quality matchup, but the low total and the role as a road underdog zap any major appeal in DFS. He’s definitely viable in GPPs if you are making a ton of lineups, and I will include him in my tournament pool, but he is far from a top play on this slate. It seems as if Haskins would have a strong matchup against the Jets, the clear way to attack them this season has been through the air, but we know that Gregg Williams loves to blitz and we can be sure he will be throwing the kitchen sink at a rookie QB this week. He’s cheap enough to consider, but will end up being someone I avoid in DFS.
Le’Veon Bell racked up 22 touches in Week 10 amidst concerns he wouldn’t even play in the game, and has probably the best overall matchup in this game aside from Jamison Crowder. The Redskins have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season along with the seventh-most catches out of the backfield. The matchup certainly plays into Bell’s strength, but he cannot be considered in anything other than tournaments when you factor in how bad this team as been. The risk with him is too great for me to stomach in cash games. On the other hand, I will be avoiding the Redskins backfield completely, the Jets rank second overall in rush DVOA and are fresh off allowing just one yard on the ground to Saquon Barkley. Derrius Guice is also due back this week, to further cloud the situation.
My favorite play here in all formats is Jamison Crowder, who gets an amazing matchup in the slot against his former team (REVENGE GAME!) and has clearly cemented himself as Sam Darnold’s favorite target. Robby Anderson has been one of the biggest disappointment’s this season, while Anderson has seen target totals of 9, 5, 5, 6 since Darnold returned from injury — finding the end zone in each of the last two weeks. We can also take a shot on Ryan Griffin as a cheap tight end play, who has moved back into the starting Tight End role with Chris Herndon once again injured, Griffin has four red zone targets this season — three of which were inside the 10 yard line.
I will note that I am considering Terry McLaurin in cash games on FanDuel due to his cheap price. If there is a matchup for Haskins to throw his first touchdown pass of his career, this is the spot to do so given the pass-funnel nature of the Jets defense. He has 12 targets over the last two games, and the most upside among the Redskins receiving corps.
Cash Game Options: Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin (FD)
GPP Options: Ryan Griffin, Le’Veon Bell
Denver Broncos @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Vikings 25.5, Broncos 15
Outlook: This game isn’t as ugly as the first game from a real-life perspective simply because the Minnesota Vikings are the only competent team of the bunch, but for DFS tournaments I’m really only locking onto two players here, and I will explain why below.
Dalvin Cook- Both the players I list here are going to be heavily involved in my tournament pool, and it’s because I see both of them coming in at 5% ownership or less on Sunday. This sets up as a MASSIVE Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison game with the Vikings installed as 10 point home favorites against a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the NFL this season. Kirk Cousins has played extremely well over the course of the season, but he is still without Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs should be blanketed by Chris Harris coverage on Sunday. Cook should be more involved in the passing game with Thielen not available, but this just profiles as a game where the Vikings will deflate the football and rely on the run game and defense to secure an easy victory. If they get ahead, we could see Mattison come in late in the game and he has provided some decent fantasy games this season, but Cook is the clear play for me here.
Courtland Sutton- I’m pretty much off the Broncos here, they still have Brandon Allen starting and traveling to Minnesota to face their defense is no easy task. That being said, the Vikings secondary and Xavier Rhodes in particular have not been very good this season, something Sutton can take advantage of. His nine targets inside the 20 lead the Broncos, and Allen made a point to get the ball to him in his first start, feeding him 8 targets against the Browns.
Cash Game Options: None (for now)
GPP Options: Dalvin Cook, Courtland Sutton, Alexander Mattison (extreme GPP dart)
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bills 23, Dolphins 18
Outlook: The Dolphins are pretty much not usable at all in this spot. The Bills have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, Ryan Fitzpatrick could seemingly be benched at any moment, and they have no ground game to exploit the Bills biggest weakness. The Bills, however, make for an interesting tournament stack, and if you plan on playing them, I think that’s the only way to do so.
Josh Allen finally had the big game I have been waiting for last week, but it came on the back of two rushing touchdowns and we just can’t bank on that type of production from him each week. This is one of the best matchups possible for him though, and if the game is actually as close as Vegas predicts I definitely think 22+ DK points is doable. Despite a lackluster fantasy output, Devin Singletary continued to gain more and more control of the Bills backfield logging over 60% of the snaps for the second consecutive week. I think Singletary makes for a really strong GPP play with him getting a lot of attention last week and then having a mediocre game, but I will note that this is a homecoming game for Frank Gore in Miami, so there is a slight chance they give the trusty veteran some increased touches.
John Brown has been one of the most consistent wideouts in the NFL this season hitting double-digit PPR points in all but one game. Cole Beasley continues to lead the team in red zone targets, and both are stackable with Allen/Singletary with the slight edge going to Brown due to his higher upside.
Cash Game Options: None (for now)
GPP Options: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, John Brown, Cole Beasley
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 27, Lions 19.5
Outlook: We got some pretty big news on Friday morning then it broke that Matt Stafford is set to miss this game, and the Lions will be without him for the second week in a row. This takes a lot of the shine off of this game, we can’t really trust the Lions offense with Jeff Driskel at the helm, and it also looks like Ty Johnson will be able to get cleared and play which eliminates JD McKissic as a punt option. I will actually tag Driskel as a tournament play, I expect Kyle Allen to be really chalky on DraftKings at his price — see below — so taking an even cheaper Driskel makes for strong leverage, and he does have some rushing upside.
This game does, however, contain my second favorite tournament stack on the slate…Dak Prescott to Amari Cooper! Prescott is right in the thick of the MVP race with Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson when you look at his numbers, and he’s having an exceptional fantasy season as well. He’s topped 20 fantasy points in all but two games, and has done so in three straight games. Even with this game being on the road, it’s still indoors which bodes well for the offensive performance, and the Lions have allowed the ninth-most passing yards and fifth-most receiving touchdowns in 2019. Darius Slay has been banged up for the majority of the season, and I don’t see anyone in this Lions secondary being able to keep up with Cooper. He also is in an amazing leverage spot, with everyone focusing on Michael Thomas, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at the top.
Cash Game Options: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper
GPP Options: Jeff Driskel, Zeke Elliott
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Saints 28, Bucs 22
Outlook: There’s three very clear game stacks to me on this slate, and this is definitely one of them and it will be no secret. Drew Brees had a down game in Week 10, but this is probably the best possible matchup to bounceback in with the Buccaneers ranking first in the NFL in rush DVOA while also coming in bottom-six against the pass. Jameis Winston is also always a boom or bust GPP play, with a big chance to “boom” on Sunday with stud corner Marshon Lattimore out for the Saints in the secondary.
Alvin Kamara is certainly playable every week, but the presence of Latavius Murray and the overall matchup with the Buccaneers is enough for me to stay away here. Ronald Jones is a great option in tournaments after he was chalk in Week 10, people will ignore him due to a price hike but he not only controlled the snaps for the Saints last week, but he was much more heavily involved in the passing game than we ever would have thought he was going to be.
Since we are so interested in the Quarterbacks, we are going to want their receivers. I’ll start with Michael Thomas who is all the way up to nearly $10,000 on DraftKings, but still cracks my cash game pool based on his consistency alone. The Saints target tree is pretty slim outside of Thomas, Kamara and maybe Jared Cook…so MT is clearly the guy you want to pair up Brees with or run back a Winston stack.
Speaking of Winston, Mike Evans was blanketed by Lattimore earlier this season resulting in a no catch performance, can we say revenge? With Lattimore out we could see Winston look to exploit his backup early and often, and we already know that Evans will continue to see heavy usage in the red zone due to his size — he ranks third in the NFL in targets inside the 10 yard line. Chris Godwin draws a plus matchup on the inside as well, and I see it as a situation where you want the one that will be lower owned. Stack this game up and move onto the next one…this may be a popular game in cash games, but for me Thomas is really the only one I’m considering as of now for my main team.
Cash Game Options: Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
GPP Options: Jameis Winston, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Ravens 27, Texans 23
Outlook: This is my favorite game for tournaments in Week 11 and it’s not even close, I will 100% be overweight to this game and I’m looking to stack it on both sides. Even with the Ravens defense back healthy and playing extremely well, Deshaun Watson is probably the only QB on this entire slate that can rival Lamar Jackson’s upside, which immediately shoots him up my list at projected low ownership. Jackson on the other hand is the best Quarterback play on this slate, but that’s no secret to the readers of this article. The Texans will badly miss JJ Watt (and Jadeveon Clowney for that matter) in this game as the attempt to contain Lamar, which should be a near impossible task.
I will be avoiding the backfields here and focusing on the passing games, the reason I love stacking the Ravens so much is that you know the ball is going to either Hollywood Brown or Mark Andrews when Jackson does throw it. As long as both are healthy, I like pairing them both with him and running it back with DeAndre Hopkins…who is projected for around 3% ownership. How often do we get a receiver of his caliber at that type of ownership in a game with a 50+ O/U?
The Texans should get Will Fuller back this weekend, which could help open things up for him more against a tough defensive opponent like the Ravens.
Cash Game Options: Lamar Jackson
GPP Options: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Colts 23, Jags 20
Outlook: This profiles as a better real-life game than fantasy, both teams are still in the running for the AFC South divisional crown and both could really use a win here. Nick Foles is set to take back his job from Gardner Minshew, but you have to wonder what we can really expect from him in his first action since the first half of Week 1. Jacoby Brissett is also back this week for the Colts after Brian Hoyer filled in last week, but you have to imagine that the Colts are going to want to grind the clock and let Marlon Mack shoulder the load. Brissett is ailing, the Colts receivers are really banged up with TY Hilton and Parris Campbell both out, and I just have hard time seeing a scenario where tons of points are put up here.
Leonard Fournette is in the Dalvin Cook-tournament tier. He should be relatively under-owned with everyone either going up to Christian McCaffrey or down to the lower tier, and he should be rested following a bye week. He’s logged 20+ touches in 6 of 9 games. You could make the case for Marlon Mack as a GPP play, but I am more likely to play Fournette in the same game, or spend up for a low-owned Dalvin Cook on DraftKings due to his pass-catching upside with Adam Thielen out.
If everyone can think back to when Dede Westbrook dominated the targets from Foles in the preseason, and all of the hype that was surrounding him coming into the season, that’s about to be thrust back into the picture…and what a matchup to do so. We often target this Colts defense over the middle of the field due to their zone-heavy scheme, and Westbrook has been the Jags primary slot receiver in 2019.
On the Colts side, I actually really like a play here and you may be shocked to find out it’s Eric Ebron. They will need their Tight End’s to step up with arguably their two best receivers down, and he is coming off a 12 target game against the Dolphins. The Jaguars defense has been especially leaky to his position this season, and he’s cheap enough that I can consider him a top play in all formats.
Cash Game Options: Eric Ebron
GPP Options: Dede Westbrook, Leonard Fournette
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Panthers 27, Falcons 22.5
Outlook: This game sets up as a shootout when looking at the teams and the Vegas total, but I can’t help but get a weird feeling about it after seeing what the Falcons were able to do to the Saints offense last week. Regardless, we don’t have many attractive high-total games on this slate and we are going to be forced into considering players here for all formats. Matt Ryan posted just 15 DK points in his first game back from injury, and even with the high O/U I won’t be considering him a top play this week with Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott relatively close in price.
Kyle Allen on the other hand? yeah, let’s talk about him. For starters. he is projected to be one of the highest-owned Quarterbacks on the slate due to his price of just $5,300 on DraftKings. I always like to save money in cash games at QB, to emphasize stars and scrubs builds, but there’s absolutely no way I would be considering him in GPPs if he is, in fact, that high-owned. Tourneys are all about upside, and Allen has topped 20 fantasy points just once this season…his first start, against the Arizona Cardinals.
We already know that Christian McCaffrey is the best overall play on the slate, so I want to focus on Brian Hill here who is probably the top overall value play, for both sites, but isn’t projected to be the highest-owned player? What’s going on? I feel like we dream of getting these cheap, workhorse running back situations and we should have that this week with Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith both out for the Falcons. He’s way under-priced for what his role should be, and if he is only 40% owned on Sunday I plan on being well overweight.
All of the Panthers receiving options are great plays in all formats — DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen. They each have found success with Allen under center and even though the Falcons defense looked great last week, I’m not willing to completely buy into a one game sample size. For DFS tournaments, I would rank them in that order, while for cash, I would flip flop Olsen and Samuel.
Since I’m far less likely to roster Matt Ryan than the field, I’m far less likely to roster his receivers and instead will solely be focusing on Brian Hill from this team. Julio Jones can shred any defense, and he would receive a substantial bump if James Bradberry ended up being inactive. Calvin Ridely and Russell Gage can also be filtered into game stacks, Gage in particular is interesting due to his role as the slot receiver with Mo Sanu gone and his extremely cheap price tag on both sites. He’s logged 14 targets over Atlanta’s last two games.
Cash Game Options: Kyle Allen, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen
GPP Options: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell gage
New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Patriots 24, Eagles 20.5
Outlook: This game is especially interesting to me for DFS because I feel like it’s going largely overlooked. The Eagles secondary has been one of my favorite targets this season, which sets up especially well for Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu. The Eagles are still a very good defense against the run, so I will be avoiding Sony Michel, though I could see taking a tournament shot on James White for his pass catching ability. Brady never seens to gain the attention of DFS players, but he is certainly capable of big weeks in close games…as you can see the spread on this game is just 4.5.
Edelman is in the Amari Cooper pricing tier making him a great leverage play with most people going all the way up to Thomas or focusing on the Bucs receivers, while Mo Sanu actually has cracked my cash game pool. He played every offensive snap for the Patriots in this second game with them seeing 14 targets!
It’s tough to want to go out of your way to target the Patriots defense on an 11 game slate, but one play in particular that stands out is Miles Sanders, who should be in line for his biggest workload yet with Jordan Howard looking doubtful. There’s not much behind Sanders, and the place to beat the Pats this season has been on the ground and throwing to the running back — catching the ball out of the backfield has been Sanders biggest strength so far in his career. He’s extremely cheap, and I could see playing him along with Brian Hill in cash games or GPPs. Hopefully this is his coming out party.
I also think you can take a shot on Nelson Agholor for his price with Alshon Jeffery out, but I’m not rushing to do that with their matchup..he should at least be relatively low owned.
Cash Game Options: Mo Sanu, Miles Sanders (If Jordan Howard out)
GPP Options: Julian Edelman, Nelson Agholor, Tom Brady
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: 49ers 28, Cardinals 17
Outlook: This is a really interesting GPP game with the 49ers defense being pretty banged up and some really low price tags across both sites on the players of interest. Kyler Murray put up 23 fantasy points against this vaunted defense a few weeks ago and now he’s set to catch them on a short week. Murray has high upside week in and week out due to his rushing ability, and he’s certainly going to come in low-owned on Sunday. There were reports that Kenyan Drake leapfrogged David Johnson this week in practice, and he is stackable alongside Murray and with Christian Kirk. Kirk exploded for a massive 30+ fantasy point game last week as chalk, but will be largely avoided in tournaments this week given the difficulty of the matchup. After the Ravens and Cowboys, the Cardinals might be my favorite GPP stack of the week and they are going to come in around 3% owned.
On the 49ers side, the main plays we are looking at are Deebo Samuel and Tevin Coleman. I won’t say that Jimmy Garoppolo is a bad play, but he is missing George Kittle and potentially Emmanuel Sanders…that mixed with the offensive line uncertainty is enough for me to remove him from my pool. Coleman gets a plum matchup against the Cardinals run-defense that has allowed the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL. He also gets the benefit of playing without Matt Breida.
Samuel exploded for over 100 yards on Monday night football and is not priced accordingly on either site. Even if Sanders is active, he could very well be limited and Deebo is cheap enough for me to consider him in all formats. You can also look at Kittle’s backup Ross Dwelley, but with Eric Ebron and Greg Olsen both sub-$4K on DK he is a tournament only dart for me.
Cash Game Options: Deebo Samuel, Tevin Coleman, Ross Dwelley
GPP Options: Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Raiders 29.5, Bengals 19
Analysis will be posted Saturday night, along with NFL Final Thoughts
Cash Game Options: Tyler Boyd, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs
GPP Options: Hunter Renfrow, Joe Mixon, Derek Carr
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
