Quarterback
Lamar Jackson- It should be no secret why Lamar Jackson is the best overall Quarterback play on this slate, he’s been the best fantasy player this season aside from Christian McCaffrey and is in an expected shootout with the Houston Texans — a game that now boasts a slate-high 51 O/U. I don’t think I will be able to get there on DraftKings, more on that below, but on FanDuel we should be able to get him in given that their pricing is a generally a bit looser.
Kyle Allen (DK)- It’s pretty much LJ or Kyle Allen for me on DK. Allen is this week’s top “value” QB in a home matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. Sure, the Falcons contained Drew Brees last week, but I’m willing to trust a 9 game sample over a one game sample, and Allen is cheap enough that he doesn’t need much to meet value…similar to Ryan Tannehill last week. Unfortunately, I think Allen will be pretty chalky come Sunday, so I will be full fading him in tournaments in favor of Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey- Does Christian McCaffrey need any introduction? He’s averaging 32 DK points per game this season and that’s with one extreme outlier game of 7.3 fantasy points. The Falcons defense looked a lot better last week than it has all season, but they still are one of the top matchups in the NFL and CMC posted another 29 fantasy points in Week 10 (after being stuffed inside the 2) and didn’t see a price increase. He’s leading the entire league in yards from scrimmage, and is the safest play in NFL DFS. I have played him pretty much every week that he’s been on the main slate in cash games and that won’t stop on Sunday.
Brian Hill- Hill is the easiest play on the slate this week as he should step into a full-time role with Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith both out. Hill was very productive in college and has flashed in the preseason, but the main reason we like him is the playing time. Volume is king in fantasy football, and the matchup helps as well — the Panthers are the worst team against the run this season according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric. I said on this weeks Game Theory podcast that I would have at least 95% Hill if I was making 150 lineups this weekend.
Miles Sanders (if Jordan Howard out)- It seems like the Eagles have serious doubts about Howard being able to suit up this Sunday, which would pave the way for a potential Miles Sanders breakout game against the New England Patriots. Behind Howard, the Eagles have Sanders, Boston Scott and Jay Ajayi who was just signed on Friday. We already know how high his upside is in the passing game, and he should command 15+ touches for a reallyc cheap price should Howard miss. If Howard is in, I may have to roll out 4 WR’s in cash, which is not something I typically do.
Note: Since I 100% plan on playing CMC along with Michael Thomas — more below — it’s unlikely that I will be able to spend up on a mid-tier RB. I would also include names like Josh Jacobs and Tevin Coleman in my cash game pool, but out of transparency, I’m not writing them up here because I don’t see how I fit either one in.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas- It’s not often that we are looking to spend $10K on a Wide Receiver in cash games, but Thomas has truly been on another level this season. He should easily end up the league leader in catches this season, and has a shot to set the all-time single season record in that category as well. Even with Alvin Kamara back last week Drew Brees fed him 14 targets, and now he gets pretty much the number one matchup in the NFL for a receiver with how good the Bucs have been on the ground compared to in the air. I’m going for the full-on stars and scrubs build with CMC + MT on both sites.
DJ Moore-If we plan on using Kyle Allen, I would like to stack him with a receiver in addition to Christian McCaffrey, and I don’t think that’s overkill at all due to the Panthers 27 point implied team total. Moore has logged 30 targets since the Panthers bye week, and has also topped 100 yards in each of the last two weeks yet remains under $6,000 on DraftKings.
Tyler Boyd- This game quietly has the fourth-highest total on the slate, and the Bengals should be in catch up mode being installed as 11.5 point underdogs. Boyd is still under-priced, but lead the team in targets last week with Ryan Finley at Quarterback, and it would make sense for him to pepper Boyd with quick looks again this week due to their instability on the offensive line.
Mo Sanu- Bales brought this up on the Game Theory podcast and I’ve really come onto it. For starters, he gets my favorite overall matchup to exploit against the Eagles secondary that has been abused each of the last two seasons, and Sanu has quickly moved into an every down role for the Patriots. He jumped from 5 to 14 targets in his second game with the team, and at the end of the day, aside from Edelman and Sanu, Brady just doesn’t have much to throw to right now…which is why they moved a 2nd round pick to get him from Atlanta.
Deebo Samuel (DK)- Deebo ERUPTED for 112 yards on 11 targets on Monday Night Football, and gets the infamous MNF discount with prices being released before that game ever happened. He draws an amazing matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, and with Emmanuel Sanders questionable and George Kittle out, he should be in line for another increased workload.
Tight End
Eric Ebron- Arguably the best place to attack the Jaguars defense this season has been over the middle of the field, with Tight Ends, and that sets up perfectly for Eric Ebron who is in line to see a ton of work with TY Hilton and Parris Campbell out for the Colts. This same situation arose last week, which resulted in Ebron leading the team in air yards on the back of double-digit targets. I will be looking to take advantage of Ebron while he is still cheap, if he has a good game he will see a nice price hike heading into their next game.
Note: I really, really like Darren Waller this week at home against the Bengals, at what appears to be too cheap of a price tag. I’m pretty locked onto Ebron right now, but both Waller and Greg Olsen are cash game playable as well.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
