Welcome to the Week 11 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
Winston’s seen limited snaps in 2020, but he’s expected to draw the start with Drew Brees injured. He threw for 5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions last season, making him an elite fantasy option. Winston threw for 300+ yards in 11 of his 16 games last season, including 10 games with 2+ touchdowns. He gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are allowing 310.3 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up a league-high 22 passing touchdowns to go along with 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt. The New Orleans Saints are 5 point favorites in a game set at 50 points. They boast one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 27.5 points. This stack would lose quote bit of value if Taysom Hill somehow draws the start over Winston.
Kamara is in the midst of an elite season for New Orleans, playing 68% of the offensive snaps. He owns 486 yards and 7 touchdowns on 104 carries through 9 games. More importantly, Kamara boasts 67 receptions for 648 yards and 4 touchdowns on 80 targets. He’s seen a team-high 25 red zone carries, posting 69 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s also turned a team-high 11 red zone targets into 8 receptions for 65 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kamara gets a matchup against Atlanta, who is allowing 99.7 rushing yards per game. They’ve only allowed 8 rushing touchdowns this season, although they’re giving up 4.3 yards per carry. Kamara isn’t a player that relies on matchups, though, as his versatility allows him to produce in even the toughest matchups.
Thomas is a player that should thrive with Winston at quarterback. He’s dealt with injuries this season, playing only 23% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps. He owns 10 receptions for 95 yards on 18 targets thus far. Thomas is coming off of a 149/1,725/9 line on 185 targets last season, though. He accounted for 41.3% of New Orleans’ air yards in 2019, recording 1,499 air yards with an 8.1 aDOT. Thomas ranked second in the NFL in red zone targets last season, posting 16 receptions for 145 yards and 8 touchdowns on 22 targets. He’s likely to return to form as the season progresses and will benefit from Winston’s gunslinger mentality. The biggest concern with Thomas continues to be New Orleans playing in uncompetitive games.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger/Diontae Johnson/JuJu Smith-Schuster
Roethlisberger’s looked great in his return to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Through 9 games, he’s thrown for 2,267 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions on 334 pass attempts. Roethlisberger is coming off of his two best games of the season, scoring 32.32 and 28.04 fantasy points against the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys. He gets another elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. They’re allowing 283.9 passing yards per game and a league-high 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve also given up 19 passing touchdowns in 2020. The Steelers are 10.5 point favorites in a game set at 46 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 28.3 points.
Johnson’s technically played in 8 games this season, although he’s played only 57% of the offensive snaps because of injuries. Overall, he’s posted 37 receptions for 426 yards and 4 touchdowns on 65 targets. Johnson’s posted 10+ fantasy points in each of his healthy games, though. He owns 5 red zone targets in 2020, posting 4 receptions for 38 yards and 3 touchdowns. Johnson’s seen 572 air yards with an 8.8 aDOT, accounting for 23.3% of Pittsburgh’s air yards. He’s been an elite option when healthy, and his injury concerns could continue to drive his ownership down.
Smith-Schuster’s seen mixed results while playing 80% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers. He boasts 54 receptions for 516 yards and 5 touchdowns on 70 targets through 9 games. He’s also coming off of two of his best games of the season, posting 22.7 and 21.3 fantasy points in those contests. Smith-Schuster’s turned a team-high 10 red zone targets into 7 receptions for 66 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. He’s only seen 17.8% of Pittsburgh’s air yards, recording 434 air yards with a 6.2 aDOT. Jacksonville has struggled against the slot, though, and Smith-Schuster makes an elite option in this offense.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow/Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd
Burrow’s seen plenty of ups and downs throughout his rookie season. He’s thrown for 2,485 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 370 pass attempts. Burrow owns 130 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, as well. Burrow flashed a few weeks ago with 38.64 fantasy points against the Cleveland Browns. He gets a plus matchup against the Washington Football Team, who are allowing only 194.7 passing yards per game this season. They have given up 14 passing touchdowns, though, while allowing 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt. The Cincinnati Bengals are 1.5 point underdogs in a game set at 47 points, and they own an implied team total of 22.8 points this weekend.
Higgins has quietly been one of the best rookie wide receivers in the NFL this season. He’s posted 40 receptions for 603 yards and 4 touchdowns on 61 targets while playing 70% of the offensive snaps through 8 games. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last 7 games, including a trio of games with 20+ fantasy points. Higgins owns 7 red zone targets this season, recording 5 receptions for 43 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s seen 25.1% of Cincinnati’s air yards this season. Overall, he owns 775 air yards with a 12.7 aDOT. Higgins is arguably the WR1 in Cincinnati, making him an elite stacking option with Burrow this weekend.
Boyd leads Cincinnati’s receivers, playing 78% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s posted 60 receptions for 625 yards and 3 touchdowns on 76 targets this season. Boyd’s recorded double-digit fantasy points in 7 of his 9 games, including 30.74 and 25.5 fantasy point performances against the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles. He’s turned a team-high 11 red zone targets into 7 receptions for 59 yards and 3 touchdowns. Boyd only owns 654 air yards with an 8.6 aDOT in 2020. He boasts 21.1% of Cincinnati’s air yards this season. Boyd is the other focal point of the passing attack, making him a great option with Burrow this weekend.
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