Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow
Burrow’s seen mixed results through nine games as a rookie. He’s thrown for 2,485 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 370 pass attempts. Burrow also owns 130 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground this season. His touchdown rate surprisingly sits at only 3.2%, although he boasts an outstanding 1.4% interception rate.
Burrow’s posted 17+ fantasy points in 7 of his 9 games this season. He flashed elite upside against the Cleveland Browns, throwing for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns with 34 yards and 1 touchdown (38.64 fantasy points) on the ground a few weeks ago. Burrow is coming off of his second-worst performance of the season, although that’s far from surprising in a difficult matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. There’s a chance Joe Mixon returns to the lineup this weekend, adding another dimension to the passing attack. Tee Higgins continues to progress, turning into the Cincinnati Bengals’ WR1 with Tyler Boyd manning the slot. There are plenty of question marks around whether A.J. Green will see the positive regression he’s due for, and if he does, that will only positively impact Burrow’s fantasy outlook.
Burrow gets an interesting matchup against the Washington Football Team this weekend. They’re allowing a league-low 194.7 passing yards per game in 2020. With that being said, they’re giving up 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt, suggesting teams simply haven’t needed to throw the ball against them. Washington’s also allowed 14 passing touchdowns in 2020. This game is a pick ’em set at 46.5 points, giving the Bengals an implied team total of 23.3 points. They’re a team that tends to rely heavily on Burrow’s arm, and he comes with elite upside for a low price tag on this slate.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott continues to be a workhorse option for the Dallas Cowboys, posting 572 yards and 5 touchdowns on 150 yards through 9 games. He owns 36 receptions for 238 yards and 1 touchdown on 49 targets, as well. Elliott 27 red zone carries this season, posting 74 yards and 5 touchdowns on them. He does own a league-high 13 carries inside the five-yard line. Elliott’s turned 4 red zone targets into 3 receptions for 14 yards and 1 touchdown.
He leads Dallas’ running backs, playing 78.8% of the offensive snaps this season. That leads all running backs in the NFL by over 8%, as well. Elliott’s season is essentially night and day with and without Dak Prescott in the lineup. With Prescott, he’s averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game, scoring 17+ fantasy points in each game. Without Prescott, he’s averaging only 9.3 fantasy points per game, scoring double-digit fantasy points only once.
Elliott gets a matchup against an average Minnesota Vikings run defense this weekend. They’re giving up 115.7 rushing yards per game, although they’ve allowed a league-low 5 rushing touchdowns. Minnesota is also allowing 4.1 yards per carry. With that being said, Dallas’ offensive line has a slight advantage against Minnesota’s defensive line in the run game, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Cowboys are +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 48.5 points, and they only own an implied team total of 20.5 points. Andy Dalton is expected to return this week, though, and Elliott recorded 8 receptions on 10 targets in their only full game together this season. The latter is one of the league’s elite running backs, and he comes with far too low of a price tag for his talent and 20+ touches per game.
Nyheim Hines
Hines is a bit of a boom or bust option for the Indianapolis Colts. Through 9 games, he owns 177 yards and 2 touchdowns on 45 carries. He also boasts 33 receptions for 265 yards and 4 touchdowns on 41 targets. Hines’ only seen 11 red zone carries, recording 33 yards and 2 touchdowns. He ranks second on the team with 8 red zone targets, turning them into 5 receptions for 35 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Hines’ only played 32% of the offensive snaps for Indianapolis this season. He’s flashed, though, scoring 28.5 and 21.2 fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games. He also posted 27.3 fantasy points in his first game of the season. Frank Reich has stated that he’s going to ride the hot hand this season, and that has been the case thus far. Luckily for Hines, he’s a versatile option that has flashed more often than struggling rookie Jonathan Taylor and a one-dimensional Jordan Wilkins.
Hines gets an elite matchup against the Green Bay Packers this weekend. They’re only allowing 110.8 rushing yards per game. With that being said, they’re giving up 4.6 yards per carry and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in 2020. Most importantly, Green Bay is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs at 54.3 yards. Their inability to cover the running back will play into Hines’ strength, allowing him to stand out as the option for Indianapolis this weekend. The Colts are -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 51 points, and they boast an implied team total of 26.8 points. Keep in mind, this play is somewhat of a roulette game that comes with quite a bit of risk. It’ll keep Hines’ ownership low, though, and this is a matchup he can take advantage of.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas
Thomas has struggled through only three games this season. He owns only 10 receptions for 95 yards on 18 targets. Thomas does own 4 red zone targets on limited snaps, recording 2 receptions for 13 yards. He saw 1,499 air yards with an 8.1 aDOT in 2019. He boasted 41.3% of the New Orleans Saints’ air yards last season and should see a similar share when healthy.
Thomas’ played only 17.2% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps due to injuries this season. He’s playing roughly 80% of the offensive snaps when healthy in competitive games, though, and he’s the clear-cut WR1 for New Orleans on a weekly basis. Oddly enough, Thomas owns 4.7 fantasy points 2 of his 3 games, posting 10.1 fantasy points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s struggled with Drew Brees under center, but he is expected to play with gunslinger Jameis Winston this weekend. Although Thomas’ efficiency is likely to drop with Winston at quarterback, it’s hard to believe his ceiling doesn’t immediately increase with Winston’s mentality at quarterback versus Brees’.
Thomas gets an ideal matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this week. They’re allowing 310.3 passing yards per game and 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. They’ve also given up a league-high 22 passing touchdowns this season. Thomas will spend the majority of this game against Kendall Sheffield, who has graded out as PFF’s worst cornerback in the NFL this season. He’s been targeted on 24% of his routes covered, allowing a 74% catch rate. Sheffield is also given up 2.79 yards per route covered in 2020. The Saints are -5 point favorites in a game set at 50 points, and they boast an implied team total of 27.5 points. Even with his struggles, Thomas is one of the most expensive receiving options on this slate. He’s in a perfect spot to break out this week, though, even with Winston’s question marks.
Diontae Johnson
Johnson’s one of the biggest question marks in the NFL because of his injury history. Technically, he owns 37 receptions for 426 yards and 4 touchdowns on 65 targets through 8 games. Johnson’s posted 4 receptions for 38 yards and 3 touchdowns on 5 red zone targets, as well. He boasts 23.3% of Pittsburgh’s air yards, recording 572 air yards with an 8.8 aDOT.
Although Johnson’s played in 8 games, he’s only seen 53.3% of the offensive snaps because of injuries. He’s played 75% of the snaps in 6 of those 8 games, averaging 6 receptions for 71.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns on 10.3 targets per game. Johnson saw only 3 targets against the Baltimore Ravens, although he played 77% of the offensive snaps. Excluding that game, he’s averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game in his other 5 contests. He posted 23+ fantasy points in 3 of those 5 games, as well.
Johnson gets a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are allowing 283.9 passing yards per game in 2020. They’re giving up a league-high 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt, allowing 19 passing touchdowns, as well. Johnson is expected to play the majority of his snaps against Sidney Jones, who has been Jacksonville’s best cornerback this season. He’ll also see time against C.J. Henderson, who struggled as a rookie thus far. Johnson gets the worst matchup of the Pittsburgh Steelers receiver group, helping keep his ownership low. The Steelers are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 47 points. They own an implied team total of 28.8 points this weekend. There are quite a few mouths to feed for Pittsburgh, but Johnson continues to see volume when he’s healthy. His injuries generally keep his ownership low, as well, although he consistently produces when healthy.
Tight End
Logan Thomas
Thomas has quietly performed well for the Washington Football Team this season. He’s posted 28 receptions for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns on 52 targets through 9 games. Thomas has turned a team-high 8 red zone targets into 7 receptions for 57 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s seen 447 air yards with an 8.6 aDOT this season, accounting for 22.7% of Washington’s air yards.
Thomas leads all of Washington’s tight ends, playing 86.4% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. He’s posted 10+ fantasy points in 4 of his 9 games, including 3 of his last 4 contests. Thomas has seen 12 targets in 2 games with Alex Smith, suggesting he’ll continue to be targeted after he struggled with Kyle Allen at quarterback.
He gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. They’re allowing 265.1 passing yards per game to go along with 21 passing touchdowns this season. The Bengals are giving up 7.7 adjusted yards per game in 2020, as well. Furthermore, they’ve struggled against tight ends, ranking near last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to the position. This game is a pick ‘em set at 46.5 points, and Washington features an implied team total of 23.3 points. Tight end is one of the weakest positions in the NFL, making Thomas an outstanding option on this slate.
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