Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Total: 46
Outlook: This total opened at a massive 54, and has since dropped to 46. A drastic decline. This has been caused by the expected weather in Cleveland, which looks to be as windy, or even more windy than their Week 8 game against the Raiders. This was set to be one of the best games on the entire slate, but given how low-scoring that Browns/Raiders game was we have to discount some of these options. I really liked the Deshaun Watson stack as leverage off a chalky Duke Johnson, but I think I’ll likely have to avoid it at this point. Speaking of Duke Johnson, he is one of the top running back plays of the week in a revenge game against his former team, where there is potential bad blood. More importantly, after David Johnson went down in Week 9, Duke out-snapped his back-up 50-5 while receiving all of the running back touches. David Johnson is out for this game.
With my lack of interest in the passing games, I would be focused on the Browns run game, but we have a lot of unknown here. Nick Chubb has yet to be activated from the IR, which is a big piece of news nobody is talking about. Should the Browns choose to hold him out another week, Kareem Hunt would be elevated to one of the top running back plays on the entire slate, and enter the cash game conversation. If he returns, it’s back to a two-headed monster and would leave both as GPP-only options even against a Texans defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
The one option I do like on the Browns is Austin Hooper, whose low aDOT counter-acts the wind concerns. The Browns will still throw the ball some, and Hooper has proved to have strong chemistry with Mayfield. I love his price point, and the wind will leave him virtually un-owned.
Cash Game Pool: Duke Johnson
GPP Pool: Austin Hooper, Browns RB situation (can be upgraded depending on news)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Vegas Total: 44.5
Outlook: A 44.5 O/U doesn’t jump off the page relative to other games on this slate, but I do think there are some quality DFS plays here specifically on the Eagles side. The Giants have quietly been a solid defensive unit this season, but the Eagles come into Sunday as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1 following their bye week. Carson Wentz hasn’t been someone I’ve rostered this season due to the state of the Eagles offensive line, but with Lane Johnson expected back the case can be made in tournaments. I would rather focus on his pass catchers, however, that being Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor in particular. Both logged over 70% of the snaps pre-bye week with Goedert touching 80%. Alshon Jeffery is expected back this week, but the Eagles are expected to ease him in and we have yet to see him this season, so we can’t be sure what to expect. The Giants have struggled over the middle of the field which bodes well for Goedert, as the Eagles are still without Zach Ertz. Reagor was one of my favorite rookies in this years draft, and commanded over 20% of the teams total targets in Week 8.
Miles Sanders is also back this week, and listed without an injury designation heading into the weekend. He has been a beast as expected in games he’s played this season, and I love him as a pivot in tournaments priced similarly to some higher-owned options.
The Giants will pretty much be a full-fade for me on most slates even with Devonta Freeman now on IR. Golden Tate is expected back which throws a wrench into our Sterling Shepard play from last week, but you can make the case for Evan Engram. We’ve yet to see a ceiling game from Engram, but the Eagles are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and it’s important to remember he’s dropped a few touchdowns.
Cash Game Pool: Dallas Goedert
GPP Pool: Jalen Reagor, Miles Sanders, Evan Engram
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Total: 50
Outlook: This is a smash spot at home for the Packers offense, coming off a mini-by after walloping the 49ers on Thursday Night Football last week. Note that over 30 of this games implied points are coming from the Green Bay side. I love stacking the Packers because we know where the usage is going, and that’s Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Jones logged 20 touches in that Thursday night game and has now had extra time to get healthy for this game. He is arguably the top running back play on the slate. Adams is too expensive for me for cash games, but remains locked in as the top receiving option on the slate. Rodgers with Jones and Adams is a fantastic tournament stack, that can be run back with either of James Robinson or DJ Chark.
Chark was given the undertaker.gif treatment from rookie Jake Luton, catching a 70 yard touchdown on his first pass attempt and dominating over 50% of the teams total Air Yards. Chark’s matchup improves greatly with stud CB Jaire Alexander out for this game. As for Robinson, he has one of the safest workloads in the NFL and the Packers have been extremely giving on the ground. It’s also important to note they’ve allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs, as Robinson has a secure passing game role. We could see Luton retreat to his check-down tendencies in a tougher matchup than what he saw vs Houston, which would boost Robinson’s floor even more. He is one of my favorite pivots at any position in Week 10.
Cash Game Pool: Aaron Jones
GPP Pool: James Robinson, DJ Chark, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers
Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Total: 46.5
Outlook: This total is a few points higher than the Eagles/Giants game, but I think we are looking at even less fantasy-viable options. The Football team are down to Alex Smith at QB, and while it remains to be seen who is better between him and Kyle Allen, it doesn’t inspire much confidence in the team offensively. Even in a strong matchup. The two guys that stick out above all else in this game are Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. McLaurin is quietly first in the NFL with a 45% stranglehold on the Football Team’s Air Yards through nine weeks. His price is up across the industry, but the targets and usage he’s been getting still make him a good bet even at an increased price tag. Gibson is a tournament-only play as he continues to get out-snapped by JD McKissick despite looking like the best back on the team with the ball in his hands.
The Lions are a mess right now. Matthew Stafford will be good-to-go for this game, but he will be without Kenny Golladay which I have noted is a huge downgrade for him splits wise. TJ Hockenson (who is banged up) and Danny Amendola (LOL) will be the focal point of this passing game with Golladay out. I say that without mentioning Marvin Jones, because he hasn’t seen as much volume as Amendola with Golladay out and has been entirely reliant on scoring touchdowns. I will likely avoid this situation entirely, but don’t mind Hockenson as a pivot at the tight end position.
As much as I want to write-up D’Andre Swift, I just can’t trust him outside of a GPP flier right now. He’s routinely getting under half of the Lions snaps, despite being the clear best playmaker on the team. The touches are there, but I’d like to see him stay on the field more before I elevate him to an upper tier play.
Cash Game Pool: Terry McLaurin
GPP Pool: Antonio Gibson, TJ Hockenson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Total: 50.5
Outlook: I noted that this week is a smash matchup for the Packers offense, and the same can be said for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We get everyone’s favorite narrative — #AngryTom — coming off a dismantling at the hand of the Saints in primetime. This is a good example of how we can let small sample sizes sway our thinking in DFS. Coming into the season, the Panthers were a team I wanted to attack every week in DFS. For the first few weeks, they were an extreme run-funnel and surprisingly good against the pass. That hasn’t been true over the last few weeks. They’ve been completely unable to generate pressure and it has finally started to do them in, it appears they are who we thought they were. The lack of pressure is big for Brady, who owns a QBR of just 54 under pressure. The tough part is knowing who to stack Brady with given their abundance of weapons. I think pretty much the whole offense is in play, but I’m going to lean heavily towards chasing the Antonio Brown game. He is cheap across the industry and was on the field a ton in that Saints game — logging five targets. A Brady stack will be one of my main GPP builds in three max entry for Week 10.
Now, I also love Leonard Fournette for leverage, and would be looking to get exposure to him even in non-Brady builds. He is a plus in the passing game, and the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. I expect him to continue to run ahead of Ronald Jones amidst fumble concerns, and he is a great pivot this week.
It’s funny that I’ve been gushing about the Bucs in this spot, but the only player I have graded as a cash game option is Mike Davis. That’s only due to price, as the sites seem to have forgotten that McCaffrey could miss this game. The matchup is not good, but Davis was a true bell cow in CMC’s early season absence and the volume alone makes him a free square at his basement price tag. You can even use him in Brady teams seeing that he has upside as a pass catcher.
I don’t love either of Robby Anderson or DJ Moore in this tough matchup, and would prefer to stick with Davis as my only Panthers exposure. If choosing one, I would go with Anderson who will avoid Carlton Davis coverage.
Cash Game Pool: Mike Davis
GPP Pool: Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Total: 48
Outlook: This might be my number one game to watch this weekend, with two promising rookies in Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa duking it out in Miami. Herbert is once again one of my favorite tournament plays in three max contests, feeling like he will go under-owned for what feels like the fifth week in a row. Miami has actually been really good defensively this season, but they have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks — see Kyler Murray last week. Herbert is extremely athletic and has 166 rushing yards on the season. With the Chargers backfield banged up again this week, this could further incentivize Herbert to keep it himself when in the red zone. Keenan Allen is the clear stack with Herbert, and one of the best standalone plays on the entire Week 10 slate. He’s now second in the NFL in targets, and should primarily avoid Byron Jones and Xavien Howard on the inside. Kalen Ballage and Josh Kelley will likely split work at RB again sans Jackson, and both are avoids to be despite the strong matchup.
It only took Tua two games to pull off a dramatic road upset, and it’s clear that the Dolphins are trying to win right now. They are playing with house money also owning Houston’s first round pick, and it’s clear that they think Tua gives them the best shot to make noise this season, and it’s much more than an evaluation period. His weapons are as gutted as possible, however, Myles Gaskin is still on IR and now Preston Williams is out as well. This should thrust DeVante Parker into a volume-driven role, and that makes him viable in all formats at his DFS price. I don’t love the matchup, though, so if he becomes chalky I will be underweight on him in tournaments — but still in on cash games. The backfield is too murky for me to go there with Gaskin down, but would look to Mike Gesicki in a potential Herbert run-back for leverage off of Parker.
Cash Game Pool: Keenan Allen, DeVante Parker
GPP Pool: Justin Herbert, Mike Gesicki
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Total: 56
Outlook: This is the best game of the weekend, and a clear game stack spot with two mediocre defense and fast-paced offenses squaring off. The Cardinals have given up over 300 passing yards per game in November, and were crushed on the ground by Tua and Russ Wilson over the last two weeks. This bodes well for Josh Allen, fresh off an eruption against the Seahawks. He is one of the top quarterback options on this slate, in stacks with either of Stefon Diggs or John Brown. Diggs should feast on a washed Patrick Peterson, while Brown has an even easier matchup and is coming off a huge 11 target game in which he looked fully healthy. I will avoid the Bills backfield with it becoming a full-on committee between Moss, Singletary and Allen. If stacking the Bills, I’m looking at Allen with one or both of Diggs/Brown.
The Cardinals are even easier to dissect because we know where the volume is going. Kyler Murray has been the fantasy MVP so far in my opinion, pairing remarkable consistency with upside on the ground like we’ve only seen a few times over the last few decades. He is the best QB option on the slate, and someone that I will personally be locking into cash game builds. I actually prefer Allen to him in tournaments, however, and will run it back with either of DeAndre Hopkins or Christian Kirk. Nuk has the tough matchup with Tre White, but he is as matchup-proof as any WR in the NFL. Kirk has been used a ton in the red zone, and his big play ability makes him a steal at his price tag in tournaments.
I also need to touch on Chase Edmonds, who is quickly becoming one of the best tourney plays on the slate after looking at projected ownership. He can get trolled by Murray’s legs, sure, but he played over 90% of the snaps last week and logged 28 touches. How often do we get someone at around $6,000 that’s getting that many touches? I don’t care that he had only 11 points last week and I plan on being overweight to him in Week 10.
Cash Game Pool: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Chase Edmonds
GPP Pool: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas Total: 54.5
Outlook: I prefer the Bills/Cardinals game to this one, but the more I’ve researched the more I see I should probably be heavier on this game. Pete Carroll/Sean McVay game has historically been shoot outs, and that was before the Seahawks actually wanted to pass the ball early on in games. This opens the door for game stacks, starting with Russell Wilson and his two pass catchers. The DK Metcalf vs Tyler Lockett debate is one that we will hear weekly for the rest of the season, and I will continue with my stance to always lean Metcalf. I wrote up Lockett as a cash game play last week, but noted I wanted to be much heavier on DK in tournaments. Lockett has the better matchup on paper, but a lot can be decided by what you think the Rams do on defense. I noted how well Metcalf has been in single coverage this season, so if we think Ramsey shadows him I will be looking at him heavily for leverage. Ramsey has said he won’t shadow, but that remains to be seen on Sunday. Lockett is projected for high-ownership again this week, and it’s tough for me to bank on one of them in cash games. Both are viable in all formats for me, but I would prefer Metcalf if I can afford him.
The Seahawks have been atrocious defensively allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It’s been a clear to stream whoever plays Seattle recently, and now that is Jared Goff who also happens to be at home. It’s tough for me to consider a QB on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL at expected high-ownership, but the matchup says it all. Goff is certainly in play, but my initial lean is I prefer guys like Herbert and Brady to him in Week 10. Cooper Kupp is another guy projected for moderate ownership, as Seattle has been creamed in the slot this season. I think he is viable in all formats, but I prefer Woods for less ownership. They project relatively similarly, and Woods has higher touchdown equity given he mixes in for a few rushing attempts (which he has scored twice on).
The backfields are a big-time avoid for me this week. The Rams have a full blown committee, while the Seahawks were headed that way in Week 9. DeeJay Dallas still found the end zone, but Alex Collins did get work and Travis Homer actually out-snapped Dallas.
Cash Game Pool: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp
GPP Pool: Russ Wilson, Jared Goff, Bobby Woods
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Total: 48.5
Outlook: Despite a 48.5 O/U, this game feels likely to be pretty much un-owned in DFS aside from Alvin Kamara. Even after a long week following a Thursday Night Football loss, the 49ers are still the most banged up team in the NFL and largely an avoid in DFS. It seems like Jerick McKinnon and JaMychal Hasty trade big games, and neither standout as DFS plays for Week 10. The one player you could make a case for is Brandon Aiyuk, who still gets a boost with the 9ers missing Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk has flashed chemistry with Nick Mullens, and mixes in for some rush attempts/red zone work as well.
I personally won’t be playing Drew Brees in DFS, but the case can certainly be made against this depleted defense with a 29 point team total. Alvin Kamara would typically be a cash game lock for me at home in this environment, but gets relegated a bit due to Aaron Jones price. That being said, I wouldn’t blame anyone for locking him in and ultimately have him graded as an all formats level play. The leverage here would be Michael Thomas, who people are completely avoiding due to historically-low price tags. This is still MT, and the 49ers secondary is still extremely injured, and he still saw 6 targets last week. $7,400 is a bargain compared to what he was priced last season, and I will have exposure to him in tournaments.
Cash Game Pool: Alvin Kamara
GPP Pool: Michael Thomas, Drew Brees
4PM GAMES WILL BE POSTED ASAP
