Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Browns 21.5, Bills 19
Outlook: This slate is definitely unlike the last few, with some really attractive games that will dominate the DFS attention, low totals like this one between the Browns and Bills are not going to to generate peak interest. That doesn’t mean there aren’t viable plays, however, and we can start on the Bills side with rookie Running Back Devin Singletary. I’m tagging Josh Allen as a tournament play, because I truly think he is one each week, but we just haven’t seen the big-time ceiling from him that we saw down the stretch of 2018. Singletary on the other hand, looks like he has finally taken over the lead back duties from Frank Gore — coming off a season-high 24 touches. He also saw double the snaps as Gore, and the Browns come into Week 10 having allowed the 8th most rushing yards in the NFL. The mid-tier of RB is loaded this week, and I’m considering Singletary a great play in all formats in a game that should be close, which boosts his pass-catching floor even more.
The Browns defense has been much more giving on the ground and through the air when it comes to fantasy points, but I do think we can look at COle Beasley once again as a punt. He easily leads this receiving corps in red zone targets, and both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are fast, and should be able to at least keep up with John Brown this week.
As for the Browns, this Bills secondary has been entirely too good for me to even think about wanting to roster Baker Mayfield, who continued to look lost in this offense. Odell Beckham figures to be blanketed by Tre White despite reports that Mayfield wants to “force feed” him the ball in Week 10…that wouldn’t be a smart move. Jarvis Landry had a productive fantasy game last week and gets the clear best matchup of the bunch in the slot. He is still too cheap on DraftKings but ultimately probably won’t end up in my cash game pool.
It would be smart for the Browns to game plan around Nick Chubb in this one, and as a short home favorite, he is a great leverage play off of expected higher-owned players in his price tier. Kareem Hunt is set to return from suspension this week, but it’s unclear what his role will truly be and if anything, hopefully that just keeps people off of Chubb more.
Cash Game Plays: Devin Singletary
Tournament Plays: Cole Beasley, Nick Chubb, Josh Allen, Jarvis Landry
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Ravens 27.5, Bengals 17
Outlook: I can really see this game going multiple ways, but regardless, outside of the usual Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews plays there just isn’t much that I want to include in my personal player pool. The Ravens are coming off a massive win, in primetime, against the Patriots, and now have to travel to Cincinnati to face a horrid offense that has to be tough to get up for. Could this be a potential trap spot? Sure, but we also just have no idea what’s going on with the Bengals offense…rookie QB Ryan Finley is taking over for Andy Dalton this week and AJ Green is still out with an injury.
Jackson has massive rushing upside against this defense that he shredded for over 150 on the ground in their first meeting, and is arguably the top QB on the slate. I won’t be playing him in cash games personally, but I’m listing him as playable there because I wouldn’t blame anyone for spending up on him in Week 10.
Some seem to be interested in Tyler Boyd’s cheap price tag this week, but Green’s continued offense gives the Ravens all the more reason to shadow him with Marlon Humphrey, which they did in their first game against each other. There is a lot of value this week, and I don’t see any reason why I would be using Boyd in this matchup over those other guys in his pricing tier, but that’s just me.
Cash Game Plays: Lamar Jackson
Tournament Plays: Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 27, Titans 21
Outlook: This is one of my favorite games of the weekend, and I think you can find solid plays for both cash games and tournaments throughout. I’ll start with the Chiefs, where I think we can find one of the best leverage spots on the slate. This will be Patrick Mahomes first game back from what was a really scary knee injury, and I’m going to choose to be greedy while others are fearful here. I don’t see any way he ends up highly-owned on this slate with the AZ/TB and ATL/NO games taking everyone’s attention, so locking in Mahomes with Travis Kelce is probably my favorite overall tournament stack. The place to beat the Titans this season has been with Tight Ends, and Kelce is still due for positive regression with 9 targets inside the 10 yard line but just ONE CATCH on those passes…sign me up for one of the highest-upside stacks in NFL DFS at 5-6% ownership this weekend. You can also throw Tyreek Hill into the mix as well, but he should be matched up with Adoree Jackson who is a former track star, and is one of the few players in the NFL with a chance at keeping up with Hill.
How funny is it that this game has the Chiefs, but the cash game plays come from the Titans! Unfortunately, that’s what it’s come to this weekend with Ryan Tannehill appearing really under-priced to me. Tanny got an extremely raw deal in Miami playing for one of the biggest dolts in the NFL, Adam Gase, and has looked really good in three games as a starter for this Titans team. He’s posted 19+ fantasy points in every game, and his a home dog that should be forced to throw against a mediocre secondary. The obvious choice as a stacking partner is AJ Brown with both Delanie Walker and Corey Davis not expected to play, and for the first time all season I am strongly considering a Titans stack in cash…sheesh!
You can always play Derrick Henry at home, but my interest in Tannehill and his lack of involvement in the passing game has eliminated him from most of my builds.
Cash Game Plays: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown
Tournament Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Jonnu Smith, Derrick Henry
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bucs 28, Cardinals 24
Outlook: I’m going to break down this game, and the ATL/NO game, a bit differently because there are so many good fantasy plays and on this particular slate, these two games are going to dominate the ownership. Both of these teams are top-five in pace this season, and this is one of the more clear shootout spots out of the last three-four weeks of games, of course, it’s the NFL and anything can happen, but there should be points scored here.
Both Quarterbacks are playable in all formats due to that fact, and I actually have Jameis Winston graded out as third overall on this slate behind Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
I don’t really want to mess with the backfield in Arizona, but on the Bucs side, we have what should be our first Ronald Jones chalk slate of all-time? Jones saw season-highs in touches and snaps last week, and Bruce Arians officially said he was they “starter” for this week. He is priced at just $4,300 on DK, and is one of the top point per dollar plays on this slate.
The pass catchers is where this game gets crazy, because we are obviously going to be stacking this game up. Mike Evans should see Patrick Peterson coverage, but PP has been pretty bad in his early return to the lineup so if that keeps people away and ownership down, I’d like to buy. Chris Godwin on the other hand has the better individual matchup and I do slightly prefer him if choosing one.
On the Cardinals side, we know that the Bucs defense has screamed pass funnel this season, the problem is there’s no receiver that we feel super comfortable with here. I ultimately would side with Christian Kirk if choosing one, who will see time in the slot and it feels like his ceiling is infinitely higher than old man Larry Fitz at this point. The ideal stack from this game *for me* would be Winston/Godwin/Evans/Kirk in tournaments — gaining leverage off of everyone that plays Ronald Jones.
Cash Game Plays: Jameis Winston, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, OJ Howard
Tournament Plays: Larry Fitzgerald, Kenyan Drake
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bears 22, Lions 19.5
Outlook: I cannot believe how good Matt Stafford has been in this offense this season, but it keeps happening week in, week out and it’s getting hard to completely write off. This is a tough matchup, on the road in Chicago after traveling to Oakland last week, but Stafford has been good enough topping 20 fantasy points comfortably in 3 of his last 4, that I will list him as a tournament play. Their backfield just isn’t interesting enough for me with Ty Johnson and JD McKissick both seeing work, that I would focus on the receivers if looking to throw a dart in tournaments. Kenny Golladay is having a monster season thus far, and his secure red zone role has kept him afloat even in “down” weeks. He has scored 4 touchdowns inside the 10 yard line this season, a number that should honestly regress as the season goes on. Marvin Jones has also been great in recent weeks, but I don’t see Staff having a big enough game to support both of them, so choosing one would be the move for me personally, given the matchup.
Mitch Trubisky has been flatout horrible this season, and I’m not touching this Bears offense outside of David Montgomery. Even Allen Robinson was done in by this Bears offense last week, and I just can’t trust anyone that has to catch passes from Trubisky right now. Monty, on the other hand, has touch totals of 17 and 31 over his last two games, and has a sparkling matchup this week. The Lions have been crushed on the ground in recent weeks, and have now crept into the top-ten in rushing yards allowed for the season.
Cash Game Plays: David Montgomery
Tournament Plays: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, TJ Hockenson, Matt Stafford
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Saints 32.5, Falcons 18.5
Outlook: Similar to the Arizona/Tampa Bay game, this is a clear game stack spot, but I don’t feel nearly as good about it as I do that game. Matt Ryan is playing in the game, but we have seen the Falcons hit rock bottom as a team multiple times this season and there’s just no guarantee that they can even keep pace at all in this game — hence their 18.5 point implied team total. That would be why I only have three plays from this game listed in my cash pool.
The best overall play in this game in my opinion is Michael Thomas, who has been really consistent for the Saints this season and that should continue even with Alvin Kamara back. The Falcons are bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to receivers this season, and he qualifies as the best overall WR play on the slate. The big question in this game is what to do with Alvin Kamara, who will probably end up a bit higher-owned than we all expect on Sunday due to the matchup. It seems like the Saints want to ease him back in, which makes sense given how good Latavius Murray played in his absence, and that risk puts him in the GPP-only conversation for me.
Devonta Freeman should dominate the work for the Falcons again this week with Ito Smith out, and he may go overlooked with his price being right next to expected chalk plays like Devin Singletary and David Montgomery. I’m tagging him as a tournament play, but my favorite plays from the Falcons are Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper — both of which I think end up under-owned. Ridley will continue to see increased work with Mo Sanu out of town, and should benefit from Marshon Lattimore being locked onto Julio Jones. Nobody will be spending up for Hooper at TE, but we love to attack the Saints in the slot and he actually has seen a lot of work there since Sanu was shipped off to New England.
I much prefer Drew Brees to Matt Ryan, but even with the highest implied team total on the slate, I don’t feel great about him in cash games. There’s always a risk that Taysom Hill comes in and trolls for a touchdown in the red zone, and they could turn back to a more run specific game plan with Kamara back in the mix. If I had to rank the QB’s from these games this week — it would be Winston, Murray, Brees, Ryan in that order, with Ryan not even really on my radar.
Cash Game Plays: Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Calvin Ridley
Tournament Plays: Julio Jones, Alvin Kamara, Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Austin Hooper
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Colts 28, Dolphins 16
Outlook: The Dolphins somehow won a game last week — how bad are the freakin’ Jets? — but now head to Indianapolis without two of their best offensive players in Preston Williams and Mark Walton. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a ticking time bomb, just waiting to explode so that they can thrust Josh Rosen into this mess again, and the chances that he get benched any week are enough for me to avoid him in Daily Fantasy contests. I do have interest in athletic freak Mike Gesicki at the Tight End position though, who should be in line for more work with Williams sidelined. Gesicki is best comped to Vernon Davis per PlayerProfiler, and finally has began to showcase his talents over the last three-four games for the Dolphins. We often attack this Colts defense with Tight Ends due to their willingness to force plays to the middle of the field, and I am tagging him as an option for all formats due to his price.
For the Colts, we have no idea who is going to be playing Quarterback right now, which takes me off the situation completely aside from Marlon Mack. Mack seems like the easy play this week as a huge home favorite against the Dolphins, but it feels like come Sunday everyone is going to be ask themselves why they didn’t play him. He has touch totals of 21, 20, 21 coming out of the Colts bye week, and I think that number can rise by a few due to the likeliness that the Colts are up big coupled with the uncertainty at QB.
Cash Game Plays: Mike Gesicki, Marlon Mack
Tournament Plays: All the Above
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Packers 26, Panthers 20.5
Outlook: The Packers are in an amazing get right spot returning home after a miserable loss to the Chargers in LA in Week 9. We will start with the Panthers, however, whose offense we know revolves around the NFL’s yards from scrimmage leader, Christian McCaffrey. This is an elite matchup for him, and Packers are bottom-ten in the league in catches allowed to opposing Running Backs, and they have not been efficient at stopping the ground game either. He’s the best play on the slate, again, and there’s no debate.
DJ Moore is expected to be followed by Jaire Alexander, which makes Curtis Samuel my preferred pass catcher for the Panthers. Samuel has remained sub-$5,000 on DraftKings despite a 16 fantasy point game last week, and is certainly cash game playable at that salary…the problem is I can’t see myself rostering two players from the same offense in cash without having the QB, and that’s just not going to happen. Not to say Kyle Allen is a horrible play, but much better suited for tournaments than cash games.
As I mentioned above, I feel really good about this spot for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers himself has always played better at home. The Panthers best corner, James Bradberry, might miss this game due to an injury which would not only bump the matchup for Rodgers, but for Davante Adams who would be covered by him. Adams also happens to be severely under-priced on DraftKings, making Rodgers to Adams stacks one of my favorite stacks in GPPs. You can always play Aaron Jones in DFS, he has flashed his ceiling multiple times this season, but the presence of Jamaal Williams eliminates him from my cash game pool most weeks, when guys priced around him get all of the work.
Cash Game Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, Curtis Samuel
Tournament Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Kyle Allen, Aaron Jones
Los Angeles Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Rams 23.5, Steelers 20
Outlook: We close with one of the uglier games on this slate, and not just because it features a 43.5 O/U. The Steelers are just not a great team for DFS right now with Mason Rudolph running the offense, and this is a really bad spot for Jared Goff and the Rams offense. The Steelers defense hasn’t skipped a beat this season, and Goff is someone that has been really matchup dependent in 2019. We already know he struggles on the road, but he has been horrid under pressure and Pittsburgh actually ranks second in the NFL currently in QB pressures, while also coming in fifth-overall in sacks. Due to this, I will be avoiding the Rams offense outside of tourney darts on Cooper Kupp, who has been by far the best player on this offense this season and gets the best matchup in the slot. It would be wise for McVay to scheme even more quick looks to Kupp with his QB under siege this week, and I don’t anticipate him seeing much ownership in GPPs.
Rudolph’s low aDOT really dampens the picture for the Steelers in DFS, but I do love going back to Jaylen Samuels who hauled in 13 balls last week. James Conner was ruled out for this game, Benny Snell is still out, and now Trey Edmonds is banged up as well. It doesn’t matter how many rushing attempts Samuels sees, because he is going to be so involved in the passing game any rushing work is just gravy. He should be low-owned due to the massive price hike he saw after last week’s game. JuJu Smith-Schuster popped up on the injury report late this week, if he is out that would bump Samuels even more for me but if he suits up I don’t mind a low-owned dart with him in large-field tournaments.
Cash Game Plays: None
Tournament Plays: Jaylen Samuels, JuJu Smith-Schuster (if active), Cooper Kupp
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
