Quarterback
Kyler Murray- We as a community have been slow to adjust, but we are getting 2019 Lamar Jackson-level performances out of Murray this season, yet he is still priced lower on DFS sites than Jackson was last year. On pace to nearly match Jackson’s record rushing yardage, while smashing him in the TD department, Murray has another strong matchup with the Buffalo Bills in this weeks’ highest O/U (56). He has been the definition of consistent, and the value/floor he provides with his legs is too great to pass up in a week we are packed with value.
Josh Allen- If you absolutely can’t fit Murray, the next highest-owned projection is in the same game in Josh Allen. Allen is another player with a legitimate rushing floor weekly, but does feature more passing game upside than Murray in my opinion. This game is the most likely to shoot out, and you save a few hundred by dropping to Allen despite still having access to a 35+ point ceiling.
Running Back
Aaron Jones- Jones looked fully healthy in the Packers Thursday night game against the 49ers, and had extra rest to get ready for this weeks game. Now he draws the Jaguars, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. He’s way too cheap on DK for his upside, both running the ball and in the passing game. Playing Jones provides access to the Packers massive 31 point team total.
Chase Edmonds- I made the case for using Edmonds on this week’s Game Theory podcast pretty clear…usually if you told us someone was $6,300 and is coming off a 28 touch game they would be massive chalk. However, that’s not the case here. Edmonds was chalk last week, and “let down” with only 11 fantasy points. That type of usage is hard to find, and while Murray could always steal touchdowns with his legs, I can’t pass up those touches and over 95% of the snaps for a $6K price tag.
Duke Johnson- Johnson is projected to be one of the highest-owned running backs on the slate with David Johnson out due to the concussion he sustained early last week. With DJ out, Duke logged 80% of the snaps in Week 9 while getting every single touch out of the backfield. This is also a revenge game narrative against his former team, that didn’t exactly end well when he was traded. There is supposed to be bad weather for this game, which could alter my stance here, but for now he is firmly in my cash game mix at his price tag.
Mike Davis- Davis is the free square of the week on both sites as much as I hate to say it. I don’t like when we get weeks like this, but the sites just didn’t account for McCaffrey’s injury situation and leaving him this cheap will force greater than 50% ownership here in cash games. He’s so cheap I will likely be overweight in tournaments as well.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen- Allen is a lock for me personally again this week, especially against a Dolphins defense that has schemed targets inside with two really good outside corners. Ranking second in the NFL in total targets (86) he clearly has a strong rapport with Justin Herbert. His $7,100 price tag still feels to cheap on DraftKings.
Terry McLaurin- I don’t love targeting receivers at the most expensive price tags we’ve seen them at, but the case for McLaurin can be made through volume. He’s not as safe as someone like Allen, but his 45% Air Yards share leads the entire NFL and his 77 targets rank top-ten for the season. The Lions struggle to generate pressure which should provide hope for Alex Smith, and they don’t have an intimidating secondary either.
DeVante Parker- I don’t love picking on the Chargers secondary, but you’re hard pressed to find a better target projection for the price than Parker this week. He’s averaged just five targets per game with Tua at QB, but the Dolphins will now be without Preston Williams (IR) in addition to Isaiah Ford (trade).
John Brown- I almost locked in Brown last week, and I was kicking myself Sunday afternoon as I watched him post a near 18 DK point performance. Note that this came on the back of 99 receiving yards, in a game in which he was tackled at the one yard line. One more yard would have netted him 10 extra DraftKings points and surely 15-20% more ownership at his price tag.
Other Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Tight End
Dallas Goedert / Noah Fant- I really wanted to write up Austin Hooper here, but the weather is legitimately scaring me off after we saw it affect that Cleveland/Las Vegas game so much. Goedert was healthy enough to log over two thirds of the Eagles snaps pre-bye week and has had a week to rest. With Zach Ertz out, he is probably my favorite tight end play on the slate and too cheap on both sites. That being said, the Broncos are willingly let Drew Lock rip the ball and without Courtland Sutton the targets are heavily consolidated between Jerry Jeudy and Fant.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
