Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL GPP plays for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers continues to dominate in 2020. He’s thrown for 2,253 yards with 24 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions on 280 pass attempts through 8 games. Surprisingly, Rodgers only owns 61 yards on the ground this season. He does boast an 8.6% touchdown rate, which is the second-highest of his career.
Rodgers posted 23.5+ fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games thus far, including a trio of games with 30+ fantasy points. He’s also coming off one of his best games of the season, throwing for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns (31.9 fantasy points) on only 31 pass attempts against the San Francisco 49ers. Rodgers will be playing with Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams for the first time since Week 6. Each player adds different dimensions to the Green Bay Packers offense, allowing Rodgers to be more dynamic, although Adams and Jones are the two focal points. Unfortunately, he will be without Allen Lazard once again, although Rodgers has flashed elite upside with less throughout the season.
He gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. They’re allowing 280 passing yards per game in 2020. They’ve also given up 17 passing touchdowns while allowing a league-high 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Green Bay is currently a -13.5 point favorite in a game set at 50 points. They boast the highest implied team total on the slate at 31.8 points, adding to the overall upside of the offense. With that being said, the spread will likely keep Rodgers’ ownership low, as he may not be needed late in the game. He’s a great pivot off of Jones, though, who is currently expected to be a chalky option at running back.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette
Fournette has seen mixed results throughout this season. He owns 225 yards and 2 touchdowns on 51 carries. He boasts 22 receptions for 141 yards on 27 targets through 6 games, as well. Fournette has taken a backseat to Ronald Jones in the red zone, recording only 8 carries for 21 yards and 1 touchdown inside-the-20. Once the Tampa Bay Bucs get inside the five-yard-line, the split becomes significantly closer to 50/50.
Fournette’s dealt with injuries this season, limiting him to only 30.7% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. He’s led the running backs by a relatively wide margin in offensive snaps over the last three weeks, though. Over that span, Fournette owns 208 yards on 42 touches compared to 100 yards and 1 touchdown on 31 touches for Jones. Most importantly, Fournette is the passing down back, recording 6+ targets in each of his last 3 games, scoring 10+ fantasy points in each of those games.
Fournette gets a great matchup against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. They’re giving up 115 rushing yards per game this season. They’ve also allowed their opponents to average 4.6 yards per carry while scoring 12 rushing touchdowns in 2020. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Tampa Bay has one of the biggest line advantages against Carolina on the slate. The Bucs are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 50.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 28 points. Fournette isn’t a safe option because his role is relatively unknown with Jones also playing a major role in the offense. Still, Fournette has been playing more snaps and comes with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Antonio Gibson
Gibson flashed through eight games as a rookie for the Washington Football Team. He owns 391 yards and 5 touchdowns on 90 carries. He’s added 22 receptions for 182 yards on 26 targets, as well. Gibson’s taken over as the top red zone option, posting 75 yards and 5 touchdowns on a team-high 16 red zone carries. Surprisingly, he’s only seen one red zone target this season.
Gibson’s played 44.6% of Washington’s offensive snaps this season. He’s also scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games, including a pair of games with 20+ fantasy points. Gibson saw his biggest workload in Week 7 against the Dallas Cowboys before suffering a shoulder injury last week. His continued success as a rookie suggests he’ll find more and more snaps as the season progresses, although that’s far from a given with J.D. McKissic so involved in the passing game.
Gibson gets an outstanding matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are giving up 148.1 rushing yards per game this season. They’ve allowed a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns to go along with 4.8 yards per carry in 2020. Detroit is also giving up 2.50 rushing yards before contact this season, while Gibson remains one of the most elusive running backs in the NFL. Washington is a +3.5 point underdog in a game set at 46.5 points, and they own an implied team total of 21.5 points. Gibson continues to deal with an injury, adding to his risk, but his ability to make defenders miss along with Detroit’s struggles to hold their ground off the snap, make him one of the most intriguing running backs in tournaments on this slate.
Wide Receiver
John Brown
Brown has dealt with injuries throughout the 2020 season. He owns 23 receptions for 314 yards and 2 touchdowns on 40 targets through 7 games. Brown’s turned a team-high 7 red zone targets into 5 receptions for 45 yards and 1 touchdown. He’s seen 500 air yards with a 12.5 aDOT. Overall, he owns 19% of Buffalo’s air yards in 2020.
Brown’s only played 61.9% of the Buffalo Bills offensive snaps this season. He owns 10.5% of the team’s receptions, 12% of receiving yards, and 10.5% of receiving touchdowns on a 12.9% target share. Brown’s been a boom or bust play thus far, scoring 18+ fantasy points in 3 of his 7 games while posting fewer than 10 fantasy points in the other 4 contests. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season, though, posting 8 receptions for 99 yards on 11 targets against the Seattle Seahawks. He gets another elite matchup this weekend.
Brown will face off against the Arizona Cardinals, who are allowing 244 passing yards per game in 2020. They’ve given up 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt to go along with 14 passing touchdowns this season. Most importantly, Patrick Peterson is expected to shadow Stefon Diggs, leaving Brown to face off against Dre Kirkpatrick on the outside. Kirkpatrick has graded out as a bottom-five cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. He’s allowing a 76% catch rate while being targeted on 20% of his routes covered this season. Kirkpatrick has been dealing with an injury, as well, suggesting he could draw the start at less than 100% in this game. Buffalo is a +2 point underdog in a game set at 56 points. They own an implied team total of 27 points this weekend. Most importantly, they’re likely to be throwing the ball from the beginning to the end of this game as underdogs, adding to the upside of Brown, who will benefit from a passing-heavy game plan.
DeVante Parker
Parker has seen mixed results through eight games this season. He boasts 36 receptions for 431 yards and 3 touchdowns on 49 targets. Parker’s only seen a pair of red zone targets this season, scoring on both. He does own 24.8% of Miami’s air yards, though, recording 470 air yards with a 9.6 aDOT.
Parker leads the Miami Dolphins receivers, playing 76.7% of their offensive snaps this season. He’s turned a 20% target share into 20.9% of Miami’s receptions, 22.9% of receiving yards, and 23.1% of receiving touchdowns. Ultimately, he leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while ranking second in receiving touchdowns. Parker could take on a larger role in the offense with Preston Williams landing on IR, as well.
Parker gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. They’re allowing 240.3 passing yards per game and 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Los Angeles has also given up 16 passing touchdowns in 2020. Most importantly, they’re allowing 31.8 points per game over their last 5 games. Parker moves around the Miami formation but is expected to spend most of his time against Casey Hayward Jr. That will likely keep his ownership low, although Hayward hasn’t been a shutdown this season. The Dolphins are -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 48 points, and they boast an implied team total of 25.3 points. Parker could be the focal point of the offense moving forward, and should be able to take advantage of a quietly great matchup.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson continues to enjoy a breakout season, posting 34 receptions for 360 yards and 5 touchdowns on 49 targets through 8 games. He boasts a team-high 11 red zone targets, recording 6 receptions for 28 yards and 5 touchdowns on them. Hockenson owns a 7.6 aDOT, recording 372 air yards this season. Overall, he’s seen 14.9% of Detroit’s air yards.
Hockenson has played a position-high 71.3% of the offensive snaps for the Detroit Lions. He’s turned a team-high 17.6% target share into 18.7% of Detroit’s receptions, 16.2% of receiving yards, and 33.3% of receiving touchdowns. Hockenson’s role in the red zone is where he gets the majority of his upside, as he’s the biggest touchdown threat on the team.
He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Football Team, who feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends. Overall, they’re only allowing 185.6 passing yards per game and 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They have given up 11 passing touchdowns in 2020, though. The Lions are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 46.5 points, and they own an implied team total of 25 points. Hockenson has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL this season, but he’s likely to go overlooked because of his expensive price tag. He’s a great tournament option because of that.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
