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Building Blocks
Patrick Mahomes
Football is back and the best QB in football needs no introduction. Mahomes led all players in DraftKings PPG last season, and is a tough fade in any game-script build installed as a home favorite where he has historically crushed. Kansas City has been unstoppable in Week 1 under Reid and Mahomes, and regardless of game outcome it’s tough to imagine him having a bad game. You can play several game angles in GPPs, but he’s the clear top option for me in all formats.
Mahomes averages 308 passing yards per game in his career in Week 1, along with a 18:0 TD:INT ratio.
Amon Ra St. Brown
If you read my season-long draft article, you know I’m expecting a massive season for St. Brown and it all starts tonight vs the Chiefs. If Travis Kelce gets ruled out, St. Brown will be the top projection tonight in terms of volume. Even if Kelce was healthy and in, you could build a case for St. Brown over him due to the near $2,000 discount on DK. He was low-key heavily utilized in the red-zone last season and seems due for some positive touchdown regression in 2023.
Post TJ Hockenson — he averaged over 20 PPR points per game and his volume makes him game-script proof in any match-up.
David Montgomery
All eyes are on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs after the Lions selected him in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, but I think that David Montgomery is going to see plenty of work tonight. I do expect Gibbs role to continue to grow as the season progresses, but it wouldn’t shock me if this game turns into a run-first lower scoring game rather than the massive shootout everyone expects. Historically, KC has really struggled against the run without Chris Jones in the lineup and it would make sense for them to get Monty going running the ball behind their elite offensive line. Monty is cheaper than Gibbs, and I think that the game-script could end up favoring his role as opposed to the masses expecting a pass-happy game-plan from the Lions.
Value Plays
Skyy Moore + Noah Gray
With Travis Kelce expected to miss tonight’s game, both of these guys take an increase in expected receiving production. I’ve been banging the drum all off-season for Moore as a strong season-long pick and I believe he will be one of the Chiefs full-time starting WR’s. Anyone locked into full-time snaps with Mahomes is in play, especially at his price-tag.
As for Gray, he has shown the ability to command targets in his limited routes and would likely be a full-time player with Kelce out. He isn’t as cheap as you’d think, but once we get confirmation on Kelce he could become viable in all formats.
Josh Reynolds + Kalif Raymond
There are tons of question marks in this Lions pass catcher corps after ARSB, and they’re going to need a nice game from one of their secondary players to win this contest. Both of these guys were involved plenty last season, and should occupy solid roles with Jameson Williams out due to suspension. Detroit also brought back Marvin Jones, but he is priced above $6,000 while Reynolds is below $3K and Raymond is near min-price at $800. Raymond will likely be the highest-owned due to that price-tag, but I think both he and Reynolds are strong values. Reynolds is a big body that could get involved in the Red Zone.
Build Paths
Here are some potential build paths I will be taking tonight:
CPT Patrick Mahomes + multiple KC pass catchers and David Montgomery
CPT David Montgomery + Patrick Mahomes and 2+ KC pass catchers
CPT St. Brown + Patrick Mahomes, Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
