Welcome to the NFL DFS Slate Breakdown! This is a new article I will be writing this season, offering my favorite plays position-by-position. I will be discussing my top cash game plays, GPP targets, pivots and stacks! This article will also feature data tables produced by Sam Scherman, that I use heavily in my decision making each week. If you’re a fan of my content (thank you) I highly recommend purchasing access to my Core Plays for both main slates and showdown, and joining our FREE Discord!
Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live NFL Trends
Quarterback
Kyler Murray- Murray is one of my favorite GPP QB’s on the Week 1 slate, and I’m encouraged that he is projecting for lower ownership than the other two QB’s in his price range, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Murray was extremely banged up to end the 2020 season, and played sparingly in the preseason. Have we forgotten what this man can do on a football field? There was a stretch last season, where Murray was a must-play in all formats of DFS. Weeks 5-10 in 2020 resulted in 30.3, 28.9, 41.1, 41.9, and 30.9 DK points…not bad eh? He is fully healthy heading into this game, and the Titans once again project to be a defense with little to no pass rush. This game features the highest O/U at 52.5, and we have tons of value to spend up. I am close to locking in Murray on my main team as we approach the weekend.
Jalen Hurts- Hurts is projecting for heavy ownership this weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. This game features one of the higher O/U’s at 48. Hurts was someone that we were excited about for DFS purposes a year ago. We only saw him for four games, but he topped 60 rushing yards in three of those and added two scores on the ground in the fourth. Atlanta is under new coaching, and will look to deploy a blitz-heavy approach on defense in 2021. We have seen quick, mobile QB’s like Hurts excel against the blitz in the past, and he himself was above-average against the blitz during that four game stretch. He is clearly one of the top values on this slate at his price, and can be used in all formats on both sites.
Ryan Tannehill- On the opposite side of Murray and that massive O/U, Tannehill is in a great spot at home. If you look at the chart at the bottom of this article, you’ll notice these two teams both rank top-three in pace of play. Those that choose to stack this game will likely go with the mobility of Murray, leaving Tanny even lower-owned in just as good of a spot. He also was extremely good at home in 2020, averaging over 25 DK points per game in Nashville. I’m pretty sure I’ve already sold you on him, but I’ve yet to mention the severe mismatch the Titans wideouts have over an undersized Arizona secondary. Both outside CB’s stand below 6 feet, and Robert Alford didn’t even play football last season. Julio Jones and AJ Brown are going to feast, and I’m really hoping that the Titans come out and attack early and often through the air. An underrated part of Tanny’s game is his athleticism, and the Cardinals allowed the most rushing yards to QB’s a year ago…something to keep an eye on. He is my favorite OVERALL play at this position.
Mac Jones- I feel like I’m entirely on my own island when it comes to Mac Jones love in Week 1, and that’s fine by me. People have assumed that the Patriots are going to run a slow, gross offense, but this is what I will file under the “unknown” section for this season. Sure, that’s what we ASSUME will happen, but we are wrong about many things especially prior to Week 1. I mean, would it really shock you to see Bill let his shiny new toy, that beat out Cam Newton in camp, let it rip against a former employee of the Patriots in Brian Flores. Jones is installed as a home favorite — and his 23 point implied team total is higher than the likes of Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Jameis Winston heading into the weekend. Over the last month of the season in 2020, the Pats ran no-huddle over 50% of the time. Clearly the coaching staff trusts Jones, so don’t be shocked if they are a bit more aggressive than we anticipate. At his price tag, you can truly play anyone you want around him and I view Jones as viable in all formats.
Pivot: Matt Ryan- “Matty Ice” is coming off a season where he led the NFL in pass attempts. Despite a new coaching staff in Atlanta, we can project more of the same for Ryan and the Falcons offense. They should be more creative under the more forward-thinking Arthur Smith, who was the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans in recent years. Not only should they be a better offense as a whole, but they head into 2021 with Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman as their main running backs…tell me again how Ryan won’t be at least top three in pass attempts again? This game projects to be high-scoring, and with everyone focused on the mobile Jalen Hurts, don’t overlook Ryan on the other side vs a defense that has always funneled more usage to the air due to their above-average defensive line.
Running Back
Three-Headed Monster- For those who have read my “Building Blocks” article in past seasons, you’ll know where I’m going here. In cash games, it’s optimal to spend up at the running back position and we are awarded with three quality options in Week 1 — Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. Not much needs to be said about these three, they are three of the best playmakers in football and are all going to feature heavy workloads in Week 1. McCaffrey and Cook are both in elite match-ups, while Kamara has regularly seen a massive passing game role when Michael Thomas is out. Overall, I think people will overthink things in cash games and focus on the mid-tier at RB. McCaffrey is going to be the highest-owned of the three, and that makes sense given he is the top projection on the slate. There is so much value at receiver that it’s easy to jam in AT LEAST two of these three in your cash game lineup. I, may even attempt at playing all three. In tournaments, I will likely anchor my team with one of these three and look to spend up at WR.
Raheem Mostert- Given that I likely won’t be spending up for more than one RB in my tournament builds, I will be exploring the mid-tier in this article starting with Raheem Mostert. Mostert is not typically in my player pool, but his cheap price elevates him onto my radar in this spot vs the Lions. I’m well aware the Lions have attempted to make changes on defense in the off-season, but the last time we saw them on the field they allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. San Francisco is installed as touchdown road favorites, and we are projecting a run-heavy game plan from Kyle Shanahan with game-manager Jimmy Garoppolo at QB and a spread this large. Rookie Trey Sermon is the only threat to Mostert to begin this season, and I’m expecting them both to be fed on Sunday afternoon. Mostert is the only player from that game in my player pool, and I think he is especially viable on FanDuel.
Antonio Gibson- Gibson is one of the players I’m most bullish on this season, and I absolutely love his price tag on both sites. Coming off a promising rookie season, Gibson is poised for a massive leap forward after essentially being a “part-time” player. Despite logging under 40% of the teams snaps, Gibson turned in over 1,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns. Coach speak has said to expect a “massive” role for Gibson this season, and even with JD McKissic stealing third-downs, there is room for Gibson to be heavily-involved on early downs. He’s getting a QB upgrade in Ryan Fitzpatrick, and we know that they will throw him the ball, thanks to Scott Turner calling plays. He is underpriced for his upside even in a tough match-up, and is a great tournament play at this price tag.
Pivot: Miles Sanders- Sanders is projecting for sub-5% ownership, despite providing exposure to one of the top overall game environments of the weekend. Last season, everyone loved Miles Sanders but now the entire industry has cooled on him. Sanders is going to dominate early down work, and is a definite factor in the passing game. Boston Scott has the reputation as the pass catching back, but Sanders out-targeted him 52-36 last season. I’m not scared of the Falcons run defense whatsoever, and this is another solid leverage play in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins- Given my interest in this game, I’m sure you could of guessed what’s coming here at WR. Despite a shortened offseason heading into 2020, Murray and Hopkins clicked immediately and Nuk came away second in the NFL in targets (160) and over 33% of the Cardinals Air Yards. While the Cardinals secondary is horrendous, the Titans doesn’t look much better on paper at the moment with first round CB Caleb Farley unable to win a starting job in camp. We have him projected for the highest WOPR (opportunity rating) this week and he is my top overall play at his position.
AJ Brown/Julio Jones- And…given my comment that Ryan Tannehill is my favorite QB on the Week 1 slate…I’m going to be all-in on his wideouts in AJ Brown and Julio Jones. I discussed in the Tannehill blurb that these two are absolutely going to manhandle these undersized CB’s for Arizona. They are two of the most physical WR’s in football, and I’ve fully talked myself into the Titans SMASH this week. Both are viable, and they can be double-stacked in this expected game atmosphere as well. Jones in particular is hilariously too cheap if he is, in fact, healthy. He has a history of Week 1 destruction and it wouldn’t shock me to see the Titans feature their new All-Pro early.
Jakobi Meyers- I’ve already professed my love for Mac Jones, so why not take a look at his top wideout in tournaments? Meyers is really underrated in my opinion, and is coming off a season where he was inside the top-15 in football in yards per route run. He’s going to be the primary slot receiver, and can pose as a nice safety net for Jones in his first NFL start. Inside is also the best place to attack this Dolphins secondary, with the likes of Xavien Howard roaming the outside. Even if you don’t trust Mac Jones (I do), Meyers is in play as a one-off.
Marquez Callaway- Callaway is your chalk special for this weekend, as the new Saints WR1 is priced at just $3,400. I say WR1 facetiously of course, but with Michael Thomas out, and only Alvin Kamara left to command and actual target share, we have to anticipate Callaway being heavily involved. Everyone that watches football saw him haul in two TD’s from Winston on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago, and that will only add to his ownership on Sunday. This is the type of play that I think is 100% viable in cash games, but is worth a fade if the ownership gets crazy in GPPs.
Rondale Moore- As the slate currently stands, Moore is my top overall value play on DraftKings where he is the minimum price of $3,000. Even though I already wrote up one Cardinals WR, I simply cannot ignore this price tag. Moore is projected to be the full-time slot receiver for AZ this season, and will mix in for some carries as well. He’s an electric playmaker, and is not your typical min-priced punt. I believe him to be an optimal cash game play in Week 1.
Note: Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole are both currently out of practice for the Jets and on the Covid list. If one, or both, miss, I will 100% be upping the Jets WR’s and someone like Elijah Moore could emerge as a top value.
Pivot: DK Metcalf- I discussed stacking Russell Wilson on our NFL DFS Picks video this week, and it has become apparent that Metcalf is going to fly way under the radar in Week 1. Seattle is coming into this season with a new OC in Shane Waldron, and they are expected to play faster, emphasizing no-huddle and quick passes. This bodes well for the entire offense, but especially Metcalf and his teammate Tyler Lockett — who accounted for 79% of the WR targets from Wilson in 2020. The Colts don’t have anyone that can cover Metcalf, and he has one of the highest ceilings on this slate despite around 5% projected ownership. These are the plays I love making in tournaments, and with his ceiling, you can use him as a one-off in any lineup as well as in a stack.
Tight End
Tight End is the toughest position for me to dissect this week. Given the plethora of receiving value, you would think I would be interested in the upper-tier for tournaments. Mark Andrews isn’t on the slate, and I hate the game environment for George Kittle, leaving Travis Kelce as the lone option that intrigues me. I do like the spot for Kelce, but can’t say I will be rostering him on any of my 3-5 teams. Be sure to check my Final Thoughts cheat sheet this weekend for my updated player pool at tight end.
Kyle Pitts- Pitts is projecting for the highest-ownership this week, making his NFL debut. I’ve heard many debates about the success of rookie TE’s this off-season, but we simply cannot place those limitations on Pitts. First, he is a TE in name-only, he is the WR2 in this offense behind Calvin Ridley, and is going to be treated as such. Secondly, no other tight end in NFL history has been drafted in the top-five, so why are we going to compare him to any other tight end? He is an enigma, and the high-usage projections for him are very real and warranted. He will be absolute chalk due to his price tag, and for that reason, it’s tough for me to be lukewarm on him this week. Of course, I will be rostering him in my main team (for cash games), but I typically like to get weird at this position in GPPs due to the volatility overall. He is a top play, but someone I will likely be avoiding outside of cash games and game stacks.
Tyler Conklin- Conklin was one of my favorite deep sleepers this season, and that was before the Irv Smith injury. Minnesota runs a ton of two tight end sets, and he already had a path to heavy playing time. With Smith injured, Conklin is cleared for takeoff in a great match-up with the Bengals. Cincy was a team we regularly targeted with TE’s in 2020, a season in which they ceded the third-most receiving yards to the position. He topped 25 routes in four of his last five games and I expect him to be involved in the red zone with Kyle Rudolph and Smith absent. Last season I called the Logan Thomas first game TD days before it happened…and my proclamation for Week 1 2021 is we will see Conklin in the end zone on Sunday afternoon.
Ben’s Top Five Stacks
Kyler Murray-DeAndre Hopkins-Julio Jones-AJ Brown
Ryan Tannehill-Julio Jones-AJ Brown-DeAndre Hopkins
Sam Darnold-DJ Moore-Robby Anderson-Elijah Moore
Matt Ryan-Calvin Ridley-Kyle Pitts-Miles Sanders (can also use DeVonta Smith)
Russell Wilson-DK Metcalf-Jonathan Taylor
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
