This is my first ever fantasy or DFS article…I hope you find it useful!  I’ve been lucky enough to be successful on DraftKings and FanDuel under the name MigTheTig.  You can also find me on Twitter at @MigTheTig

For a couple of seasons, I became obsessed with studying individual WR/CB matchups. While the defender in charge of actually covering the WR obviously matters (see Evans and Godwin’s matchups with PFF’s 2018 dead-last graded CB Ahkello Witherspoon and 5’9” slow slot corner K’Waun Williams), there’s also a good bit of statistical noise with WR/CB matchups. Too many DFS plays get dismissed when a WR is facing a “good” CB. Conversely, I see far too many mediocre WRs that happen to be facing off against a lowly graded CB get hyped up as DFS “smash spots.”

I’ve had some of my biggest weeks the past couple years by studying the pressure rates of opposing offensive & defensive lines. When a receiver has time for his routes to develop, especially if he also happens to be #Good, all bets are off for the CB trying to defend him (regardless of what kind of grade that CB holds).

Over the past decade, the average passer rating for a QB in a clean pocket is 98.5. For a quarterback that is under pressure, that rating drops to 73.3. That’s about a 25% drop in passer rating.  To put that in perspective, Tom Brady owns a career passer rating of 97.6, while most seasons, a 73.3 passer rating would rank in the bottom 3 for all starting QBs.  Once pressure hits the pocket, the plan for that particular play often times goes down the drain.

 

Here are Week 1’s Pressure Picks

 

Michael Gallup

Week 1’s largest O-Line pass protection advantage belongs to Dallas. People almost always look to play the WR1 in DFS, especially if stacking with the QB, but I’ll instead be pairing my Dak stacks with the talented 2nd year WR that he spent all camp and preseason with in Gallup.  Last year, Amari Cooper had an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 9.8 yards while Gallup owned a much deeper 13.9 aDOT. Dak should have all day to make some pretty throws to Gallup with Cooper not getting many reps at all this summer due to a heel injury and with a probable 50/50 split at RB this week.

 

Julio Jones

The Falcons took a big step forward in 2018 with their protection by finishing 5th in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency. They then selected two 1st Round Offensive linemen in this year’s draft adding to their depth and potentially even a starter already in Kaleb McGary.  PFF is projecting MIN to be a bottom 3 defense as far as creating pressure this year and if Julio Jones (NFL leader in yards per route run for the past 4 straight seasons) has time for his routes to develop, it won’t matter who’s covering him. Xavier Rhodes is projected to shadow Julio, but Rhodes graded out as the 101st best (yikes) CB in coverage last year out of 112 (according to PFF). Reports out of camp and preseason play haven’t been good for the once elite Rhodes, either.

 

DeSean Jackson

The Eagles have the top O-line for pass protection and its not even really close.  Sticking with the theme of receivers having time for their routes to develop, DJax had an absurd 18.9 aDOT last year in Todd Monken’s air raid offense but should certainly enjoy big upgrades at QB and O-line play in Philly. While the game script shouldn’t necessarily call for a ton of passing, I’ll take my chances with DJax turning one or more of his 4-7 targets into something special against his former team.

 

Travis Kelce

KC is NOT projected to have excellent protection going up against what should be an elite JAX pass rush (tied with PHI at #1 in my 2019 weighted pass rush metric). However, according to PFF, Patrick Mahomes was NFL’s #1 passer while under pressure last year. I like for Mahomes to look to Kelce early and often when on the move. Of course Tyreek Hill can always bust one deep on any defense, but I’ll gladly get my KC exposure from Kelce who should see his normal huge allotment of targets plus a few more when Mahomes needs a big body outlet while on the run.