What’s up Karma Nation and welcome into my first game-by-game breakdown of the season. This is my third season doing this article, so if you’ve read it before welcome back, and if you’r new, grab a seat! I will also be covering cash games for both FanDuel and Draftkings on Fridays, and doing an NFL Final Thoughts cheat sheet each week as well…let’s get it!
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Eagles 27.5, Redskins 17.5
Quarterback- We kick off 2019 with one of the more one-sided games of the weekend, with Super Bowl hopefuls the Philadelphia Eagles squaring off with the divisional opponent Washington Redskins. Case Keenum was able to fend off (at least in the Redskins coaches opinion) rookie Dwayne Haskins for the Redskins starting job, but he will have his work cut out for him against this loaded Eagles front, in an obvious pass-funnel spot. The Eagles game plan to take away the run, and they should 100% overpower this Redskins offensive line that will be playing without Trent Williams (holdout). For those reasons, I won’t be targeting Keenum in any format, however I do have interest in the Eagles side of the ball. The Eagles have Carson Wentz back healthy, and are counting on him big-time with Nick Foles (#BDN) walking to Jacksonville in free-agency. I, like many others, love this Eagles offense this season as they have done a fantastic job surrounding Wentz with weapons that should optimize his production. Wentz has historically smashed this Redskins defense, topping 300 yards against them in three of his last four games while tossing nine touchdown passes over that span. At only $5,700 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel, Wentz presents a very stable floor with a high-ceiling as a home favorite.
Running Back- Both backfields in this game are pretty messy to start the year, with both featuring pretty heavy committees. The Redskins got 2018’s prize pick Derrius Guice back (finally) in Week 3 of the preseason, and he looked good in what was his first NFL game action in over a year after tearing his ACL last August. The problem with Guice is his workload, as he still has to compete with Adrian Peterson with touches, while Chris Thompson will steal passing down work. Regardless, as I pointed out above, the Eagles prioritize stopping the run and with a more than suspect offensive line in front of them I will be avoiding this situation completely. For the Eagles, they selected draft Twitter darling Miles Sanders out of Penn State, who drew rave reviews up and down Eagles camp. I’m a big fan of Miles Sanders in real-life, but I have a hard time believing he will immediately step into a huge workload with Jordan Howard still being there after the Eagles traded for him in the offseason. I’m looking for Sanders to eventually take over the main role for the Eagles, but we should see Howard see the height of his work at the beginning of the season and this does set up for extremely positive game-script for him. All-in-all, I won’t be targeting these guys in DFS, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Howard troll if the Eagles are easily winning this game like expected.
Pass Catchers- This is where this game gets loaded, and I think you can take stabs here all over in tournaments. Given my lack of interest in Keenum or a full game stack, I won’t be targeting any Redskins pass catchers, but I will note that rookie Terry McLaurin is someone that I expect to have a promising rookie season. A 4.3 burner out of Ohio State, McLaurin easily won a starting job in training camp, and I don’t see any of these Eagles DB’s being able to keep up with him. Once Haskins takes over, McLaurin should thrive given their chemistry and Haskins ability to throw the deep ball. While Keenum is under center, I expect former Little League World Series star and slot receiver Trey Quinn to be the biggest fantasy asset.
Wentz options are where we are going to be looking in DFS, and I’m starting with DeSean Jackson. He broke a finger in camp, but all signs point to him being fully available for this game and few receivers in the NFL have as big of a positive impact on splits for their Quarterback than DJax does. I love Jackson’s upside against this Redskins secondary, and I can certainly see him breaking off at least one big play given that Josh Norman has just 4.66 speed. He’s a candidate for my main tournament team. I love J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, but it will be a while before we can use him comfortably in DFS with DJax, Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz hogging most of the targets. As for Ertz, I think he is a solid pivot in tournaments, but the Redskins actually did a pretty good job of limiting him (by his standards) in their two meetings last season.
Cash Game Options: Carson Wentz, Eagles D/ST
GPP Options: DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin
My Pick: Eagles -10
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 24
Quarterback- We head to a much more attractive game in both real-life and DFS, with Patrick Mahomes making his first start of year two as a starter against the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. Mahomes had one of his worst performances of 2018 against this Jaguars defense, posting “just” 20.8 DraftKings points that was boosted by a rushing touchdown. I don’t expect this Jaguars defense to be quite as good as it has been the past two seasons given some of their off-season departures, and with new OC John DeFilippo now in Duval County, the potential shootout factor jumps weekly given that they will be a much more pass-oriented offense compared to the past few seasons when they were firmly aboard the run the ball and play defense train. I never spend up in cash games for the highest-priced QB, but with this game carrying a huge 52 O/U in Vegas, I like the over and I like Mahomes in tournaments as part of a game stack. If I was playing one QB in this game, it would be Mahomes given his upside, but it’s pretty easy to see that newly brought in Nick Foles will be better for this Jaguars team than Blake Bortles dreamed of being. If you wanted to run a bit of a lower-owned game stack, you could use Foles as your Quarterback, but that probably won’t be the way that I personally go. Either way, this is one of the juiciest games on the slate by far.
Running Back- No teams backfield has generated as much chatter across the industry as the Kansas City Chiefs did this past off-season. Whether or not you were on #TeamDamienWilliams to begin with, the number one factor always remained that Andy Reid’s top back perennially produces in fantasy football. Darwin Thompson gained a ton of traction as the pass-catching back after Carlos Hyde was cut, only to see LeSean McCoy reunite with Andy Reid to muddy the situation up again. I expect that McCoy’s knowledge of Reid’s system will allow him to play in this Week 1 game, but I still think we see Williams get the bulk of the touches off the bat. It’s not clear enough of a situation for me to go there in DFS, however.
Fournette is the hot-button target in the backfields for this game, and after a promising preseason I expect him to be one of the most popular running back plays on this slate given his price across the industry. He has no real threat to his workload behind him, and after seeing an influx of targets during his time on the field with Foles in the preseason games, people are all-in on Fournette in this new Jaguars system. While he will be popular, I do think he is a great play and worthy of the ownership given that new scheme and coupled with how bad this Chiefs run-defense projects to be after ranking 32nd in run-defense DVOA in 2018.
Pass Catchers- Given our interest in a game stack, this section is going to be loaded with options in all formats. Starting with the Chiefs, Travis Kelce is my favorite overall option in this game outside of Fournette, and the lower-owned he comes in the better for us. Kelce has the best matchup on paper given that the Jaguars lost some guys on defense in the middle of the field, and he was the most productive player in their meeting last season as well. Tyreek Hill is expected to be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey which will all but eliminate him from my personal pool. Sure, he needs just a few big plays to pay off in tournaments, but Ramsey shadowed last season as well and held him to 61 yards… I don’t see the Jaguars letting him beat them over the top. If you wanted to take a stab at a Chiefs WR it would be Sammy Watkins or Mecole Hardman for me, both have much better matchups than Hill and have the speed to pop off a slate-breaking performance, especially if this total goes over like I think it can. On the Jaguars side, it’s mainly Dede Westbrook who will be getting attention, given his cheap price tag on all sites. The Jags were missing WR’s in their preseason games, but they really don’t have much outside of Westbrook anyways and Foles peppered Westbrook with targets. I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.
Cash Game Options: Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook, Sammy Watkins
GPP Options: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams
My Pick: Over 52
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Ravens 22.5, Dolphins 16
Quarterback- This next game is nowhere near as exciting DFS wise as the Chiefs/Jaguars game, but there are some very interesting plays, a few that I am particularly high on. Starting with the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, if you follow me on Twitter (if you don’t, you should) you’ll know that I am extremely high on Lamar Jackson this season. While I like him in real-life, and I think he is a lot better than 90% of people do, that doesn’t matter, and the reason I’m so high on him is for fantasy football. I went out of my way to rank him much, much higher than consensus in my personal seasonal rankings, and I truly think he has a realistic shot at being fantasy footballs number one QB this season. He gets an absolutely smash matchup in Week 1 against the tanking Dolphins, who will not be able to put any pressure on him in the pocket whatsoever. For the #Narrative crowd out there as well, this is virtually a homecoming game for him as he grew up in south Florida. At his price, given his rushing floor and matchup, I think he is playable in all formats on Sunday.
Ryan Fitzmagic beat out Josh Rosen for the Dolphins starting Quarterback gig, and while I think that it’s key for the Dolphins to see what they have in Rosen, I can admire what the Dolphins are doing, They are 100% tanking the right way, and they’re trying to be exciting while doing it. Sure, Fitzpatrick has some truly horrible games, but he also plays an aesthetically pleasing style of football that can make even poor teams at least bearable to watch. I also don’t think it would be smart to let the already gun-shy Rosen get creamed behind the worst offensive line in football. Anyways, I don’t see a repeat performance of last year’s Week 1 given the run-oriented, control the clock nature of the Ravens offense.
Running Back- If you’re planning on playing some Lamar Jackson in Week 1 like I am, an underrated move in tournaments is to stack him with his running back, Mark Ingram. I’m a huge Justice Hill fan, and I think that the later into the season we go the more likely he is to eat into Ingram’s workload, so the time to use Ingram in fantasy will be early on in the year, in positive expected game-scripts like this one. Jackson has so much value with his legs that you don’t need to pair him with a pass catcher, and you can simply plug in a low-owned Ingram alongside him as this Ravens team projects to be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. Much news was made of Kalen Ballage stealing first-team reps from Kenyan Drake early on in training camp, and the Drake going down with an injury. After that panic, Drake is expected to be fully healthy for this game and is expected to see “a lot of touches.” I can’t trust either in this matchup, and will be avoiding the situation as a whole.
Pass Catchers- Like I said above, given Jackson’s rushing ability you don’t need to stack him with a receiver and even if you wanted to I’m really not sure who you would trust. Miles Boykin had a smash camp, and dynamic Tight End Mark Andrews has great chemistry with Jackson, but playing time is an issue and I will be rolling with a naked Lamar or pairing him with Ingram in GPPs. As for the Dolphins, electric YAC specialist Albert Wilson is the main beneficiary of big-armed Fitzmagic winning the QB job, and he benefits from the departure of Kenny Stills as well. I don’t mind him as a punt play in tournaments, especially if you’re playing Lamar, but the Ravens defense will ultimately be the highest-owned option in this game.
Cash Game Options: Lamar Jackson, Ravens D/ST
GPP Options: Mark Ingram, Albert Wilson
My Pick: Over 38
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Browns 25.5, Titans 20
Quarterback- Anyone that has read this article the past two seasons knows that I present 100% unbiased analysis and takes, but as a Browns fan I could not be more excited for the season to start. For the first time in my life (literally) the Browns have made their way into relevancy, what a time to be alive. Marcus Mariota will have quite the tough task at hand in Week 1, traveling to Cleveland without one of the best offensive lineman in football in Taylor Lewan (suspended). This Browns pass rush is going to be fierce, and it should be a long day for the Titans line and for Mariota, who has a tendency to turn the ball over and run into sacks. Baker Mayfield took the NFL by storm over the final two months of the season in 2018, once new HC Freddie Kitchens took over the Browns offense. I’m extremely high on Mayfield this season in the Browns new air raid offense, but I respect this Titans defense and I won’t be going out of my way to target him in DFS in Week 1.
Running Back- Derrick Henry is another player that I was really high on coming into the season, but a leg injury ended up derailing his training camp and keeping him out for the last month. I do expect him to be rusty, but I also expect this Titans team to be towards the bottom of the league in pace, and if healthy, Henry is a candidate to lead the league in rushing attempts. I’m not on him in Week 1, but will certainly be on him in the future. Probably the best overall play in this game is Nick Chubb, who will benefit from the departure of Duke Johnson until Kareem Hunt (suspended) returns after eight games. Chubb fits the mold as a home favorite, with some of the best metrics in the NFL last season despite not even starting to begin the year. The Titans were average against the run in 2018, and I think Chubb is one of the top overall running back plays on this slate.
Pass Catchers- I expect this Browns secondary to be good this season, but even so I just don’t anticipate Mariota having much time to throw in this game and we already know that the Titans want to focus on running the football. Delanie Walker is the one piece I’m interested in here given his cheap price tag, and we have attacked the Browns with Tight Ends for what, a decade now? All eyes will be on Odell Beckham Jr making his Browns debut, and I do expect them to feature him to start the game given that it takes place in Cleveland and that Browns fans didn’t really get to see any of him in the preseason. He should have no problem dusting perennial let-down Adoree Jackson and while I prefer another high-priced receiver (see below) to him in cash games, OBJ is one of the top tournament plays on this slate. Given my lack of interest in Mayfield, I’m not really looking to take shots with any of the other Browns wideouts.
Cash Game Options: Nick Chubb, Browns D/ST
GPP Options: Odell Beckham, Baker Mayfield, Delanie Walker, Dion Lewis
My Pick: Browns -5.5
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Jets 21.5, Bills 18.5
Quarterback- This is one of the more uninspiring games of the Week 1 slate, as it features just two DFS viable plays in my player pool. One of which being Buffalo Bills Quarterback, Josh Allen. Allen features similar qualities to Lamar Jackson, while I think Jackson is better in real-life, it makes them both exceptional for fantasy. Allen lived and died by the throw the ball far and run mantra last season, leading the league in average depth of target and using his legs to win people fantasy leagues late in the year. The Jets secondary projects to be one of the worst units in the NFL, and I think that we can definitely look at Allen as a high-upside GPP option this week. I’m still bullish on Sam Darnold moving forward as he looked really crisp in Adam Gase’s up-tempo offense. This, however, is a really tough matchup, as the Bills ranked top-three in pass DVOA last season and I will pretty much be avoiding the Jets in this spot as a whole.
Running Back- Similar to other spots on this slate, there is simply too much going on in the Bills backfield for me to target it in DFS. Rookie Devin Singletary looked good enough for the Bills to let go of Shady McCoy, but he still has to compete with the corpse of Frank Gore for carries and TJ Yeldon on passing downs. Many readers will read this and think I forgot about Le’Veon Bell, I did not. I will simply be taking a stand and fading Bell this week, despite his relatively affordable price. We haven’t seen Bell in real game action in over a year, and this offensive line will not be as good or feature the continuity off the bat that he was accustomed to in Pittsburgh. There are too many other positive spots for Running Backs this week, and if Bell beats me I will eat crow next week, but I don’t think he offers more upside than other’s in his price range.
Pass Catchers- If you’re playing Josh Allen, the obvious stacking partner with him is John Brown, and despite everyone knowing that I don’t think we see anything more than 2-3% ownership on these guys even in tournaments. Brown’s deep threat ability matches up perfectly with Allen’s arm-strength and we will certainly be attacking this secondary all season long. The Jets receivers see the same tough matchup as Sam Darnold, and the Bills are strong both on the outside and in the slot which doesn’t bode well for Robby Anderson or Jamison Crowder. If taking a shot on one, it would be the big play ability of Anderson who has actually had success against Tre’Davious White in the past.
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Josh Allen, John Brown
My Pick: Over 40
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Vikings 25.5, Falcons 22
Quarterback- This is probably the number one game that I just can’t get an accurate read on, but we know for sure that there will be DFS options up and down throughout the game. Matt Ryan is someone that I’m really high on this season given the Falcons improved offensive line and positive schedule. Ryan features extremely positive splits in dome games — 7.8 Y/PA with over 18 fantasy points per game and will see all but three of his games indoors this season…including this one. The Vikings secondary looks to be even more beatable this season (more on that later) and with Dalvin Cook expected to be the mega-chalk at Running Back, going with a stack of the passing games makes for a great leverage play in GPPs. I’ve always had a soft spot for Kirk Cousins, as I think is better than a lot of people do, but I don’t know what to make of him in this new offense. Pass-happy John DeFilippo is out, and with the Vikings bringing in Gary Kubiak, Mike Zimmer has noted that the Vikings are prepared to focus on pounding the football despite featuring an offense with Cousins, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. If you think this game shoots out, which it certainly could, that puts Cousins in the tournament tier but I think I prefer Ryan either way.
Running Back- The Vikings have never been an opponent that we targeted Running Backs against, and that was the case again last season as the came in top-ten in run-defense DVOA. I’m expecting a big season out of now-healthy Devonta Freeman, but he’s nothing more than a tournament dart on this slate even given the potential game environment. As noted above, be prepared for the Dalvin Cook chalk train on Sunday and it could get ugly if you end up not playing him, at least in cash games. The Cook hype has grown by the day leading up to the season given this new run-heavy scheme, and the lid was popped off when Cook let loose for an 80 yard touchdown scamper in preseason Week 3. We also have picked on Atlanta with the worst of Running Backs over the past few seasons given their tendency to allow catches out of the backfield, and that trend remained the same in 2018.
Pass Catchers- This is where things get interesting, especially if looking for leverage and playing the passing games. I noted above that I preferred a certain WR to Odell Beckham in cash games this week, and that would be none other than Julio Jones. Typically, we look to spend up at Running Back, not receiver in cash games, but there is so much value at the Running Back position this week given that salaries are released so far in advance, I think we can take a different approach to begin 2019. But, more on that in Friday’s cash game article. Julio Jones will match up with Xavier Rhodes, who despite his reputation as an elite corner, was not that last season. Among CB’s that played over 14 games, Rhodes was bottom-11 in the NFL in coverage per Pro Football Focus, surely a recipe for disaster against someone like Julio Jones. Jones is coming off a season where he led the NFL in air yards, and is one of the plays I feel most strongly about in Week 1. If you’re stacking this game, you can surely get exposure to the likes of Austin Hooper or Calvin Ridley, but Julio is my main target on Atlanta and I will be overweight to the field.
On the Vikings side, we should see Adam Thielen gain some traction as a relatively chalky WR play, but like I said, I’m unsure of what to expect from this game given the Vikings new scheme. If you’re playing Thielen, I think you’re banking on the shootout and you would want other pieces of this game around him, and I don’t think I would personally look to play both Cook and Thielen together in cash games, I would side with just Cook. Stefon Diggs missed practice on Wednesday, so we need to monitor his status up until kickoff, but if he’s good to go he makes for a very interesting leverage play off of the higher-owned Thielen, especially if you’re going with the Ryan/Julio stack. Another dart throw I like in tournaments or a game stack is Vikings rookie Tight End Irv Smith Jr. An athletic beast out of Alabama, best comped to to Eric Ebron per PlayerProfiler should surprise some people to start the season and I think he could have a big red-zone role. We should see plenty of 12 personnel from the Vikings this season with no names Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson the main back-ups to Diggs/Thielen.
UPDATE: This was posted before the Julio Jones news broke that he “may not play this weekend without a new contract.” We will continue to monitor this throughout the weekend, if it gets announced he won’t play I will provide an update here and in my cash game articles — for now, my analysis remains the same.
Cash Game Options: Dalvin Cook, Julio Jones, Adam Thielen
GPP Options: Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Devonta Freeman, Stefon Diggs, Irv Smith Jr
My Pick: Falcons +3.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Rams 26, Panthers 24
Quarterback- While I can’t get an honest read on the above game, I feel pretty confident in saying I think that this game — set at a 50 O/U — is one of the top shootout candidates on this slate. Jared Goff’s home/road splits are enough to keep me away from him as a Quarterback play, even with a 26 point implied team total. But I still think the Rams will score more than enough points to be valuable in a game stack. The Quarterback I am interested in from this game is Cam Newton who survived a foot injury in Week 3 of the preseason and was not listed on the injury report this week. He has a built in 2-3 point rushing floor, and even though home favorites are what we are normally targeting, I don’t mind a home underdog in a game with massive shootout potential.
Running Back- Few players were dissected as much as Todd Gurley was this past off-season, after getting only 11 touches in the Super Bowl and then seeing the Rams trade up to draft Running Back Darrell Henderson. I, personally, think his knee is much worse than he or Sean McVay is letting on, hence them matching the offer for Malcom Brown in the off-season and trading up for Henderson, but if we are ever going to use Gurley it would be the first few weeks when he is at his healthiest…in a potential shootout. I won’t be touching him in cash games, or even my main GPP teams, but if you’re stacking this game you can surely take a shot. This sets up as an absolute smash spot for Christian McCaffrey. He excels in high-total games, this Rams defense was bottom-seven in the NFL in run DVOA last season and the best place to attack the Rams under McVay as been over the middle of the field. McCaffrey is my top overall running back play on this slate, and a fantastic play in all formats.
Pass Catchers- Even though I’m not interested in Goff, we are certainly interested in bringing back our Panthers stack with one of the Rams pass catchers. The Panthers ran a zone-heavy scheme again in 2018 which bodes well for both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp. They will be the two highest-owned Rams skill position players, so I don’t mind pivoting to Robert Woods for a fraction of the ownership, and Woods is just as good of a receiver. We have more chalk on the Panthers side as Curtis Samuel is extremely cheap on all sites, and just had one of the most hyped up camps in recent memory. I’m a huge Samuel fan, and I do think that he is a cash game option given his price, but I would much rather pivot to dynamic playmaker DJ Moore in game stacks in GPPs for 15-20% less ownership. Overall, I LOVE this game, and this will be one of my main tournament teams in Week 1.
Cash Game Options: Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel
GPP Options: Cam Newton, DJ Moore, Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
My Pick: Panthers +2
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chargers 25.5, Colts 19
Quarterback- We kick off the 4PM games with this, as it is the least enticing game of the bunch. The entire world was shocked to learn of Andrew Luck’s retirement, and while I didn’t think he would be ready to go given his calf injury, I had no idea that him retiring was even a possibility. This leaves the Colts with Jacoby Brissett, in a season where just a few weeks ago there were Super Bowl aspirations. He’s extremely cheap on all-sites after being priced for his usual backup role, but given the amount of value we have available to us I will be avoiding him altogether. Given that I’m not really on this game, and the Chargers should be winning this game easily, I will also be avoiding Philip Rivers against a tough Colts secondary, even as a home favorite.
Running Back- Prior to the Andrew Luck news, I think Marlon Mack was primed for another breakout season after closing 2018 in a workhorse role. Obviously, without Luck, the entire offense takes a step back but this won’t be like the last time Luck missed a season because the Colts have a much better offensive line, coaching staff, and overall talent. There will be weeks that Mack is a viable tournament option for me, but in a week where the Colts will probably be trailing on the road, I’ll look elsewhere in the mid-tier. The Colts aren’t the only team dealing with a star player missing, as Melvin Gordon continues his holdout and will miss the first game and most likely the foreseeable future. I’m not really buying the Justin Jackson hype, last season when Gordon was out Ekeler got double the touches, and pretty much all of the passing work and I think that we will see the same situation this season. The Colts allowed the most catches to Running Backs in 2018, setting up well for Ekeler in this spot, but my worry is that he is going to end up being pretty highly-owned. There are enough backs in his price range that I will be avoiding him in tournaments, but if you want to roster him in cash games feel free, even though I probably won’t. This matchup does set up well for him.
Pass Catchers- Given my lack of interest in Brissett, I will also be avoiding his pass catchers, even TY Hilton who we typically like to roster indoors in Indianapolis anyways. As for the Chargers, there are two strong options in Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, both of which I have tagged as cash game playable. The Colts were one of the most zone-heavy teams in the NFL in 2018, which sets up well for Allen and Henry to work over the middle of the field. They actually were the worst team against Tight Ends, which has set up Hunter Henry to be the highest-owned option at his position in cash games, and a tough fade. I prefer Keenan Allen as a lower-owned pivot off of Adam Thielen in all formats, in the same price range.
Cash Game Options: Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
GPP Options: none
My Pick: Chargers -6
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 26.5, Giants 19
Quarterback- The Giants foolishly limited Daniel Jones reps in the preseason to keep their fan-base at bay in their calls for Jones to replace Eli Manning as a starter, and I think that the team will pay for that for as long as they continue to roll with Manning at the helm. As a big-time road dog, I will not be targeting Eli Manning DFS, ever. Dak Prescott on the other hand is an interesting tournament option as part of a Cowboys onslaught. He provides a floor with his legs, and this Giants secondary is definitely going to be beatable. There’s also the incentive that Prescott is the next in line to get paid on this Cowboys team, and a few strong performances to start the year in easy matchups might get those talks moving a little bit faster.
Running Back- You know that Week 1 is weird when he have two of the best (maybe THE best) Running Backs in the NFL in the same game, and I’m really not super interested in either of them. Barkley is going to be the victim of how bad this Giants team is, we know that the volume will be there every single week, but I just don’t see how the ceiling for him is that high on a team this bad, even if he piles up short catches. He’s a freak, don’t get me wrong, but I’m going to most likely be underweight on him for the majority of these slates to start the year, unless he proves me wrong (which he very well could). Tony Pollard was set to be the highest-owned player on the entire main slate before Jerry Jones caved and made Ezekiel Elliott the highest-paid Running Back in the NFL. While that eliminates the problem of needing to jam in Pollard to seemingly every lineup, it also makes it tough to decide if you wan’t to trust Zeke. This matchup is exceptional for him, and I won’t be shocked to see him have a big game, but with him not getting any live reps, I will most likely be cautious of him to start the season, and wait until he rounds into his usual form. I will tag him as a tournament play for Sunday.
Pass Catchers- Despite my distaste for the Giants, my favorite overall play in this game is none other than a Giants player by the name of…Evan Engram. Engram is expected to take on a massive role this season for the Giants with Odell Beckham Jr out of town, and it’s important to remember that he had one of the best seasons for a rookie Tight End ever in 2017. Engram put up double-digit fantasy points in every game Beckham missed down the stretch last season with over 30 targets the Giants final four games of the season. He also torched this Cowboys defense twice last season, scoring a touchdown in each game with 5 and 7 catches. Engram is my favorite overall Tight End play on the main slate this season, and is the one reason why I think you don’t HAVE to eat the Hunter Henry chalk if you don’t want to.
I don’t see any must plays in cash games for the Cowboys in this game, but you can certainly stack either of Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup with Dak Prescott if you are going that route. Cooper looks healthy after missing most of training camp, and many, including our own DFS Karma analyst Bobby, think that Michael Gallup can take a huge leap forward in his second year. It’s worth noting that Gallup led the Cowboys in air yards last season by a wide margin, and was much better fantasy wise once Cooper was traded to Dallas. With Kellen Moore taking over as OC for this Cowboys team, I don’t anticipate the offense to be any different, but implementing some of Moore’s philosophies will be good for the offense as a whole, and we don’t have to approach Dallas as mainly — play Zeke and that’s it like we did most of last season.
Cash Game Options: Evan Engram
GPP Options: Cowboys D/ST, Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, Saquon Barkley
My Pick: Cowboys -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 27, Bengals 17
Quarterback- I was going to save this game for last because I’m so excited to write about it, but I can’t wait any longer so let’s get to it. This feels like it will be Andy Dalton’s last season in Cincinnati as new HC and Sean McVay tree member Zac Taylor finds his Quarterback of the future this offseason. For whatever reason, the Bengals are already dealing with massive offensive line injury problems again already this season, and that is going to take me off of Dalton completely on the road in Seattle. I think that this will result in Cincy attempting to get the ball out quick, and I don’t see Dalton posting a ceiling-type game in this situation and without star wideout AJ Green.
This truly is a perfect storm for the Seahawks in my opinion, which is why I am making the call to be overweight on them in both cash games and GPPs come Sunday afternoon. Last year I was extremely down on this Seahawks offense, but it seems like they have made a few tweaks to it to make it slightly more bearable, and regardless, this is as good of a matchup as it gets in Week 1 for any team. The Bengals bled fantasy points to opposing offenses in 2018, and Seattle will have one of the most narrow paths to volume to start the season…more on that below.
Running Back- I was already down on Joe Mixon from a season-long perspective given the Bengals offensive line woes, and then they went out and gave Gio Bernard a nice pay day. I think that, even if they are trailing big (which they should be), Mixon will get plenty of work in the passing game but he is nothing more than a GPP dart for me on this slate, and I most likely won’t have any exposure. One of the top plays on this entire slate for me is Seahawks Running Back Chris Carson, who is installed as a massive home favorite against a terrible defense. If I asked 100 people who had the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL last season, very few would guess Chris Carson which means very few of them would be right. Carson did nothing but separate himself further from Rashaad Penny in the preseason, and with him expected to see more targets this season as well, he’s one of the best plays per dollar on the main slate.
Pass Catchers- As I noted above, the reason I love this game so much is we seemingly know where the volume is headed. We know that Chris Carson is going to dominate work in the backfield, and we know that Tyler Boyd and Tyler Lockett are going to dominate targets for these two teams. It’s setting up the perfect game stack. Freak of nature, DK Metcalf, just had a knee scope and may not even be ready to play in this game, if he does, I’m not counting on him for much and with David Moore also out for Seattle, double-digit targets feels like a lock for Lockett this week. If you’re reading this — Russ/Carson/Lockett/Boyd…do it for me in at least one lineup. I feel very strongly about this spot this week and even if it doesn’t work out, you can make fun of me on Twitter afterwards. If you’re looking for a low-owned dart similar to Irv Smith Jr, Will Dissly fits the mold as he is locked in as the Seahawks top TE and again, the passes can’t ALL go to Lockett and Carson.
Cash Game Options: Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson
GPP Options: Russell Wilson, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Will Dissly
My Pick: Over 44
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 26, 49ers 25
Quarterback- This contest just screams game stack, and with the total sitting at a ripe 51, it’s honestly probably the most stackable game on this slate. New Bucs HC Bruce Arians loves to play at a fast-pace, and given the state of their defense they should be forced into shootouts almost weekly in 2019. The 49ers were bottom-seven in pass DVOA in 2019, and giving the projected environment of this game, Jameis Winston should be one of the highest-owned options on this slate at Quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the most interesting cases of Week 1, elite game environment, elite matchup, but also won’t see the ownership that Winston does because he threw some interceptions in practice and had a bad quarter in preseason? Listen to what I’m saying…one of the most turnover-prone Quarterbacks in the league is going to be chalk while his opponent won’t be because he had some turnovers in practice…does this make sense to any of you? I’m not saying Winston is a bad play, I’m tagging him as a cash game option especially on FanDuel, but I’m more than willing to drop to Jimmy G in tournaments, for way less ownership, while still stacking this game.
Running Back- I’m going to group the backfields together here, because they are going to be a mess when it comes to daily fantasy. It looks like the Bucs will have a three-headed monster with Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones and Dare Ogunbowale, and it’s just too thin for me to target in DFS even in the expected game-script. We have one less to deal with for San Francisco, with it looking like Tevin Coleman will occupy the “Devonta Freeman role” in this offense while Matt Breida takes on the “Tevin Coleman role”…phew, that was confusing. Anyways, we know that both of these guys are going to get touches and they both are likely to play well. For season long, they are both going to be options most weeks but outside of tournament fliers I will be avoiding them this week.
Pass Catchers- This is where this game gets crazy, especially if you’re stacking this game. I’m going to start with the 49ers, as they have a much clearer path to targets. Dante Pettis will head into Week 1 as the number one wideout, but he really did nothing in the preseason to give this coaching staff any confidence. This bodes well for George Kittle, who will remain the number one option and target for Garoppolo, and is neck-and-neck with Travis Kelce if you’re looking to spend up at Tight End this week. I haven’t been super impressed with Pettis or top pick Deebo Samuel, so if looking for a receiver I would side with Marquise Goodwin and his big play ability, since we are mainly looking to stack in tournaments anyways the risk is mitigated.
Few offensive situations have gotten as much hype/attention as the Bucs have this offseason, with over 200 vacated targets available with the departures of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries. Chris Godwin will move into the slot full-time, while Mike Evans, Breshad Perriman and OJ Howard round out the weapons for Famous Jameis. We are going to want exposure here when stacking this game, or using Winston, and how I would play it is that I think Godwin is the best play but also the highest-owned of them, so pivoting to Mike Evans makes the most sense overall. Howard himself is a great TE play, but he gets overshadowed by Engram, Henry and the spend-ups unfortunately for me. Definitely make a game stack of this game in tournaments, and with it being an afternoon game…you’re not drawing dead after some fullback or third-string Tight End scores the first touchdown of the season.
Cash Game Options: Jameis Winston
GPP Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida
My Pick: 49ers +1
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Lions 24.5, Cardinals 22
And just like that friends, we’ve made to the last game of Week 1. I’m going to cover this game differently than every other one this week, because I think there are only two ways to go about it: Game stack this SOB, or fade it entirely. This will be the debut of not only Kyler Murray, but of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. When salaries were first released around a month ago, it seemed like Kyler and the Cardinals were set to be massive chalk given their cheap price tags. Ohhhh, how things have changed. One and half quarters of poor football, running a vanilla offense that will be nothing like what we see on Sunday, and the masses are fleeing from this game like the plague. I will admit, it’s an unknown for sure, but the one thing that we do know is that…this Cardinals team will play fast. They will play really fast. Pace is one of the most under-utilized aspects of DFS, and despite the Vegas total dropping a few points because of those preseason games, if he know the Cardinals are going to play fast, then we know that the Lions will equally be forced into an up-tempo game style. We saw this situation with Chip Kelly in the past, not only do the players on the fast-paced team benefit, but their opponents do too!
I’m a bold fantasy player, I like to take stands regardless of chalk or ownership and trust my opinions and research. I think that this is going to be a fast-paced game, I think that it’s going to go over the total of 46.5, and I think that people are going to avoid it because of the fear of unknown. I could be completely wrong about the total, or how the game turns out come Sunday night, but the thing I won’t be wrong about is people opting “safer” games when the reality is, it’s the NFL, there is no safety! That being said, I’m going to stick to my guns and be overweight on this game and I like the following stack:
— Kyler Murray/David Johnson/Christian Kirk/Kenny Golladay
If any player gets ownership in this game, I think it will be Kerryon Johnson, and I’m comfortable being underweight there and focusing on the pasing game, especially since I like Chris Carson so much in the same pricing tier. We also don’t know who or if anyone will dominate targets for this Cardinals offense, so swapping out Kirk for a dart throw like KeeSean Johnson or Damiere Byrd makes a ton of sense. Both Johnson and Byrd had tremendous chemistry with Murray in the preseason, and Byrd played himself onto the team with strong performances. If you think I’m dumb, and don’t want to play this game, I totally get that. But, I think this is the perfect spot to be bold while others are fearful, and take advantage of something that has legitimate tournament winning upside should it work out in my favor.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
