Ben and I [Bales] are working on adding Showdown success to our resumes throughout the 2021 NFL season. We’ll be posting Showdown Core Plays for every Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night game of the season. These Core Plays will go along with our usual mains late Core Plays that we offer.
In this article, Ben will focus on a few of his favorite plays for the showdown slate, while I focus more on the strategy I’m deploying in tournaments, specifically single-entry leagues. If you want more access to us, join our free Discord chat.
Ben’s Top Plays
Favorite Captain: Antonio Brown
AB is someone I couldn’t quit last season, and I’m going back to the well in both season long and DFS this season. He should be more acclimated after having a full offseason in the Bucs system, and is coming off a 2020 season where his usage was pretty even with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans down the stretch. WR’s are always my favorite plays in the CPT spot, and his 58.5 receiving yard prop is actually a yard higher than teammate Chris Godwin. Despite the close prop and projection, he is over $4,000 cheaper in CPT salary. Locking in this ceiling for a cheap price allows you to do whatever you want with the rest of your roster.
Favorite Value: Gio Bernard
Bernard is a standout play on DraftKings at only $2,000. He missed time this preseason, but we got word on Wednesday that the Bucs will be 100% healthy on offense heading into Thursday night’s game. Bernard projects for all of the third-down work for Tampa Bay this season, and will look to fill the “James White” role for Brady in Bruce Arians 2021 offense. Arians threw to his running backs at a top-five rate in 2020, and this is especially valuable on the full point PPR DK scoring.
Top Overall Play: CeeDee Lamb
It’s no secret I’m a massive fan of Lamb, and dubbed him one of my must draft players for 2020 season long leagues. He’s coming off a promising rookie season, and is expected to take a leap into WR1 territory with Dak Prescott fully healthy. Dallas will be at a disadvantage with Zack Martin out against a fierce Bucs pass rush, that ranked second in QB Pressures a season ago. Lamb will be operating primarily in the slot, and could be the main target for Prescott on Thursday if he is under pressure early. He also draws the best match-up on paper, with Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis presenting tough match-ups for the Cowboys outside WR’s. Lamb provides one of the highest ceilings on Thursday’s slate.
Bales’ GPP Process
Ben and I are on a similar page for this game. The game total is set at 51.5 points, meaning I don’t want to focus on defenses here the way some people tend to do on showdown slates. My favorite captain is also Antonio Brown. He’s oddly cheap for what should be a massive role in the Tampa Bay offense after Bruce Arians stated he wants him to get back to his Pittsburgh form. The ownership should be spread out between the receivers, as there are six that can be considered on this slate. If Brown is one of the lower-owned of those six, he could be a key to taking down a GPP tonight.
With the game projecting for plenty of scoring, both quarterbacks make sense tonight. Dak Prescott and Tom Brady are two players that sit in the top-five of Vegas odds to lead the NFL in passing yards. Each player adds safety to your lineup.
There are two players that stick out as clear values in tournaments to me on this slate. The first Ben outlined above in Gio Bernard. He’ll work as the pass-catching back for Tampa Bay, and he could take the form of James White in Brady’s offense. The second is a bit riskier of a play. OJ Howard will return to the lineup after suffering a major injury in 2020. He’s priced as if he will barely see the field, though. In only 4 games last season, Howard totaled 11 receptions for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 targets (37.6 DK points). His health is a bit of an unknown, making him a boom or bust option on this slate. With that being said, he’s priced cheaper than Cameron Brate and over $3k cheaper than Rob Gronkowski. We know Howard boasts elite big-play potential for his position, and he’s a sneaky option because of uncertainty surrounding his early-season role.
As always, more goes into Showdown slates than solely what’s written in this article. You can get access to us in our Premium Discord along with our Thursday, Sunday, and Monday showdown Core Plays and our normal main slate Core Plays through our premium package.
