Ben and I [Bales] are working on adding Showdown success to our resumes throughout the 2021 NFL season. We’ll be posting Showdown Core Plays for every Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night game of the season. These Core Plays will go along with our usual mains late Core Plays that we offer.
In this article, Ben will focus on a few of his favorite plays for the showdown slate, while I focus more on the strategy I’m deploying in tournaments, specifically single-entry leagues. If you want more access to us, join our free Discord chat.
Ben’s Top Plays
Favorite Captain: Lamar Jackson
Jackson is far and away the top projection on this slate, and a tough fade at CPT in single entry contests. Las Vegas ranked bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to Jackson’s position a year ago, and simply don’t have the linebackers to contain him on the ground. I expect Jackson to feature a slightly heavier role in the run game with the uncertainty at RB, but that remains to be seen. He is the most expensive player on the slate for good reason.
Favorite Value: Patrick Ricard
This is a hilarious play that I’m writing up, but I believe he is worth the risk on DraftKings at just $200. The thing I like most about Ricard at this price is that I know he will be on the field a lot, even if he is mainly blocking. It’s also not like he’s never done anything, he scored a touchdown from the 1 yard line in Week 2 of 2020, and saw four targets as recently as their playoff game against the Titans. Using some game theory, if you aren’t planning on using Ty’Son Williams, why not take Ricard as a pure punt and hope he is the one that plunges it in from the one if they get in that scenario? It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Greg Roman scheme him some plays in this game with only Williams being there longer than a week, and at his price, one catch would be enough while allowing you to jam in an extra stud.
Top Overall Play: Mark Andrews
The case can be made for both Andrews and Brown in this match-up, but I have a tough time betting against Andrews on Monday night. I noted above the Raiders come into this season with one of the more un-inspiring LB units, which bodes well for Andrews in addition to Jackson. With Sammy Watkins and Hollywood Brown missing a lot of camp time, Andrews is the healthiest weapon at Jackson’s disposal and I would expect them to feed him coming off a big contract extension.
Bales’ GPP Process
We have an extremely interesting game tonight, as the Baltimore Ravens would normally be sizeable favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, although that isn’t the case as Baltimore’s dealing with several injuries before their first game. This feels like an obvious spot to use Lamar Jackson and Derek Carr together. It’s nearly guaranteed that Jackson will be the highest owned captain on this slate, meaning I won’t be using him there in GPPs. Instead, I believe it’s interesting to take a look at Ty’Son Williams as captain. For Jackson to “miss” in terms of fantasy tonight, Williams (or someone else) will need to steal the touchdowns. The new starting running back is an interesting option in this case, as his success will limit Jackson’s ceiling, giving you a massive edge over anyone that used the quarterback as their captain.
It’s important to note that there are other solid options for Baltimore in this game. Mark Andrews sticks out the most, as he’s likely to be the number one option in the passing attack. Marquise Brown can also be considered with Sammy Watkins as an intriguing option below them. Outside of this trio, you’d be making a dart throw on Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace, or James Proche, who could all see snaps as the WR3. I’m personally interested in utilizing Jackson and Williams together and focusing heavily on Las Vegas for the other four spots.
Essentially, I’d be betting that Baltimore utilizes a run-heavy approach, allowing Jackson and Williams to give them the lead. If that’s the game script, I’ll solely want to pair Carr with his pass-catchers. The first that sticks out is Darren Waller, who is close to a must-start for me on this slate. After him, you’re deciding between Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Bryan Edwards. Keep in mind, this is an extremely specific game script lineup you’d be banking on, which would essentially limit Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. I am worried that they will steal from each other tonight, and even if Las Vegas is winning, I believe there’s a scenario where neither of them hit value.
As always, more goes into Showdown slates than solely what’s written in this article. You can get access to us in our Premium Discord along with our Thursday, Sunday, and Monday showdown Core Plays and our normal main slate Core Plays through our premium package.
