What’s up Karma Nation! This is a weekly article I will be doing this season on Monday’s, breaking down where I landed on my main teams, reviewing them, and then covering the things that most stood out to me from the games. Let’s get it!
DraftKings
Main Lineup: Kyle Allen, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Smith, Nelson Agholor, Keenan Allen, Greg Olsen, Christian McCaffrey, Buccaneers
Main Lineup Score: 212.34
Did I Hit Cash Games? Yes.
What Went Wrong? Obviously I had my biggest weekend of the season so far, and was really a Keenan Allen touchdown on that last drive away from a huge GPP score with my cash game lineup as well. Even though things went about as good as the could of in terms of roster construction, I actually regret not playing more volume. I felt really good about this week all week, I actually posted in discord on Sunday morning that I was upping my volume in DraftKings, and I did, but probably not enough. Very few times a season in any sport do I feel like I did before that slate, and I need to be able to trust myself a bit more. Last week was a great example that the work you put-in throughout the week pays off, and it certainly did in Week 3.
The only other thing I want to touch on, even though it didn’t matter, was me feeling so confident in Devin Smith in cash games. I got sucked into him a bit and it’s important to remember these back-up WR’s have a very low floor, even though the 5 points from Smith at his price didn’t kill me, on other weeks it certainly could.
What Went Right? A lot went right for me this week, and it started with jamming in min-priced Kyle Allen, who was not as highly-owned as he should have been. Once you were able to plug in him + an extremely cheap Nelson Agholor, you had a clear path to jamming in three stud Running Backs, which was not a popular build as most people sided with Chris Carson or Rex Burkhead as their 3rd back, opposed to someone like Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey.
Another big win for me was spending down at Tight End, I was deciding between Austin Hooper and Greg Olsen (see Final Thoughts) and boy was I tilting after Hooper went nuts during the 1 o clock hour. It ultimately didn’t matter as Olsen found the box twice himself, but it was big for me that Zach Ertz had pretty much his floor game. That’s not going to happen every week, and I was completely fine with wanting to play Ertz in cash games, but it shows why I choose to save at Tight End 9/10 weeks.
FanDuel
Main Lineup: Kyle Allen, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Nelson Agholor, Larry Fitzgerald, Marquise Brown, Greg Olsen, Christian McCaffrey, Patriots
Main Lineup Score: 161.34
Did I Hit Cash Games? Yes.
What Went Wrong? I had a great week on FanDuel as well, and moved to 3-0 on the season in cash games which sets up nicely to have a really big season there overall. Similar to DK, not a ton went wrong, but I think I made a big mistake paying up for defense and not trying to get up to Keenan Allen in cash games. Allen was arguably my favorite play on the entire slate, and D/ST scoring is so volatile that spending up for defense in cash games is rarely a smart move.
What Went Right? A lot went right for me here as well, the biggest thing was the fact that the Kyle Allen to Greg Olsen stack was around 5% collective ownership, pretty much in all formats. FanDuel has much softer pricing than DK most weeks, so the need to roster a min-priced QB just isn’t there like it is on DraftKings. I felt very strongly about Allen and that paid off, but I also felt very strongly about Daniel Jones, and he was the same price there…should I have played him instead?
Takeaways
1. Phillip Dorsett Rocket Ship Emoji- One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Antonio Brown fallout will be Phillip Dorsett, who shot back up to over 90% of the snaps in Week 3 and responded with a 6-53-1 line, after going 4-95-2 in Week 1, also without Brown. He’s not going to continue to score touchdowns at that rate, but any receiver with a near every-down role in this Patriots offense is going to have value.
2. Continue Attacking ARZ- I aggressively have attacked this Arizona defense in each of the first three weeks, and after a min-priced Kyle Allen carved them up for 25 DK points, I think the secret is finally out to the masses. This team has a poor defense, and they play so fast of on offense that the extra possessions for the other team are resulting in massive fantasy games, oh yeah, and they get the Seahawks this week. Russell Wilson is averaging 35 passing attempts this season, and he hit 50 (!!!) against the Saints in Week 3, he averaged just 25 per game in 2018.
3. Kerryon Usage Rising? Johnson truthers were ecstatic when C.J. Anderson was finally cut by the Lions this past week, paving the way for Johnson to finally breakthrough from a usage standpoint. I had my concerns, but it held true with Johnson seeing a career-high 20 carries and finally eclipsing 75% of the snaps at his position. He has been inefficient, but if this workload continues he’s going to be great for fantasy as part of the Lions run-first offense.
4. Justin Jackson Balloon- Austin Ekeler is still clearly the guy for the Chargers, and is going to be great for fantasy given his targets and ability to catch the football. That being said, when I watched the Chargers game this past weekend, it felt like I was seeing more of Justin Jackson and that held true with the numbers after the game. He recorded his highest touch count of the season, and his snap% jumped 10% from Week 2 up to almost 40%. Miami is on deck…
5. Scary Terry or McLaurin F1- I could care less what you choose for a nickname here, and I care more about what we have seen on the field. Terry McLaurin was one of my favorite wide receivers in this year’s draft class, and I was on absolute tilt that the Washington Redskins drafted him, his only hope being that his chemistry with Dwayne Haskins developed…turns out, he’s even better than I anticipated! McLaurin has scored in all three games with Case Keenum at Quarterback, while going for over 70 yards in each game and seeing the most targets on this Redskins team. Oh yeah, and he gets the Giants this week…buy Terry McLaurin.
Potential Questions?
This is normally where this article ends, but I have considered adding a section where people can send me questions and I will answer them here. This one came from our discord channel, and it was — Who are you buying low on for the rest of the season?
This is a great question, and a few names came to mind given usage trends compared to what the output we have seen on the field.
– George Kittle
– Devonta Freeman — got up to 90% of the snaps in Week 3.
– Justin Jackson — see above, think that continues until Gordon is back)
– Kerryon Johnson — see above
– Phillip Dorsett — see above
– David Johnson
– Bonus: Any season-long team I have that is 3-0 or 2-1, and in a good position, I would be doing anything I can to acquire Melvin Gordon.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
