My Core
Patrick Mahomes- The Chiefs have by far the highest implied team total on this slate and I don’t think any of the other Quarterback’s come close to Mahomes in terms of DFS upside. He’s well ahead of everyone in price, as he should be, and I will be making a point to get him into all of my builds for Sunday.
Travis Kelce- It’s a definite debate between Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as the top stack with Mahomes. Kelce finally saw some positive touchdown regression last week with three end zone trips, and I think he has the better matchup between the two this weekend. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing Tight Ends this season.
Damien Williams- Completing my Chiefs onslaught will be Damien Williams, who I have a feeling will be a bit higher owned than the 50% or so he was last weekend. He has been the focal point of the run game for KC since coming back from injury a few weeks ago, and it looks like LeSean McCoy is a legitimate afterthought in this offense. We have attacked the Titans with pass-catching backs all season, which bodes well for Williams who has 16 targets over his last three games. The Titans have coughed up the second-most catches to Running Backs this season, and even if the Chiefs get out to a big lead we know he will soak up all of the work on the ground.
Jonnu Smith- The final piece to my core for this slate is Jonnu Smith, which might come as a surprise to some reading this. Smith has turned in hist four targets total for the playoffs, but the Titans have also been in control for both games which has forced even more usage towards Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has just 15 and 14 attempts through the two games this postseason, and I’m betting we will see a few more from him today against this high-powered Chiefs offense that’s finally healthy. Kansas City actually allowed even more DraftKings points to Tight Ends this season than Tennessee, and that also comes with the fourth-most catches allowed to the position.
General Strategy
Derrick Henry- The big question on this slate is whether or not you’re spending up for Derrick Henry. Sure, he’s been on a historic run and he is bound to regress at some point, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still have a big fantasy day. There are outliers in every field and Henry himself has certainly been one late this season for the Titans. We know that they’re going to feed him 25+ touches, and we know that the Chiefs are bottom-ten in rushing yards allowed this season. The problem here is, the game-script has been PERFECT for him the first two games in the playoffs, while that might not be the case this week.
It’s clear that if the Titans get up on you, it’s a lot more likely they will win the game than if they have to come from behind, sort of the opposite of the Kansas City Chiefs who can score 20+ points in the matter of minutes. I expect the Chiefs to come out very aggressive and look to build their lead early, forcing Ryan Tannehill to beat them rather than Derrick Henry. He’s topped put at three targets in a game this season so there is no argument to be made that they will start throwing him the ball a ton if they get down. That being said, I don’t love Aaron Jones in his matchup, and I don’t want to trust the 49ers situation…so I will ultimately probably end up locking in Henry once again.
If you choose to play Henry with my core section of players, you’re really going to need some value plays to make that all fit. Below I will list some cheap guys I’m targeting, but you can also make the case to not use Henry and get a much more balanced roster.
Mecole Hardman- He played under 20 snaps last week, but doubled the targets of Sammy Watkins and you also get upside for a return touchdown on special teams. DeMarcus Robinson struggled last week, and I’m holding out hope we see a bit more of Hardman this week. Still, he needs just one big play to pay off his salary.
Allen Lazard- He’s clearly been the Packers second option in the passing game down the stretch of the season, and seems to be good to go after exiting last week’s game with an injury.
If Adam Humphries is active, I don’t mind taking a stab at him, while I would love to be able to get up to Deebo Samuel against Kevin King. Kendrick Bourne has a tough matchup against Tramon Williams, but he did log five targets last week and has found the end zone six times this season and should continue to be involved in the red zone due to his size.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
