Welcome to the inaugural NFL Daily Fantasy Recap. My plan is to breakdown the previous DFS week utilizing statistics, metrics, & analytics. I’ll take those numbers to create a series of visuals to highlight interesting trends / stats about various positions and players.
The week’s viz shows the distribution of all players within their position group after 2 weeks – the highlighted players are in the 95th percentile of their position. Meaning their average is within the top 5% of all the averages within that position group – these are the elite of the elite. Personally the names on this graphic did not match to what I had in my head. In fact, most casual NFL fans wouldn’t even be able to recognize most of these players. This type of insights is what I am trying to find and explore each week.
Continue reading as I take a deep dive into each position utilizing various graphs. I will highlight a few players from each position & provide commentary explaining why i decided to highlight each player.
Defense
- New England Patriots: Have been dominant – averaging 6 pts per game more than the next defense. They benefited from playing the lousy Dolphins in week 2, but the AFC East is so bad that they will continue playing weak teams (Bills, Jets, Dolphins) – so expect them to put up points regularly in 2019.
- San Francisco 49ers: Defensive pressure (Bosa, Ford, Alexander) combined with solid corner back play (Sherman & Witherspoon) will keep the 49ers defense elite all year. Expect big things from this D for the remainder of the season.
- Tennessee Titans: Turnovers are the name of the game for the Titans in 2019. So far through 2 weeks they have logged: 3 interceptions, 2 safeties, 1 fumble recovery, & 1 TD. Will they keep this type of production up? Most likely no, but I do not see them regressing too far for the rest of the season.
- Denver Broncos / Miami Dolphins / NY Giants: The 3 worst defenses so far in 2019 – I would stay far away from these teams until they prove they can put up points defensively AKA never.
Quarterbacks
- Lamar Jackson / Dak Prescott: Far and away the 2 best QBs through 2 weeks (shout out Patrick Mahomes). The surprising thing about these QBs is they are both in the top 5 in completion % & tied for 1st in TD passes. I believe Dak has the weapons to continue being successful long term especially with new wunderkind (Kellen Moore) leading the offense. I also think Jackson will digress in passing, but his elite running ability will more than make up for that drop off. I expect both QBs to finish the year inside the top 5 in 2019.
- Cam Newton: Cam Newton’s play has been as bad as his post game outfit choices. Newton himself stated he needs to take a long look in the mirror, I think that is true for all DFS players that are currently starting Newton. He is injured and not playing like Superman – bench him ASAP.
- Jameis Winston / Mitch Trubisky: These 2 QBs stink as bad as week old crab legs. Prior to the year many experts predicted Winston to have a big year due to his elite WRs. This has not been the case so far & feel like Winston will be too inconsistent to trust in 2019. Trubisky throws as well as Cody Parkey kicks, so if you are starting him you are counting on rushing numbers. I would avoid these 2 players in 2019.
Running Backs
- Austin Ekeler: Top RB through 2 weeks – Ekeler is making the most of his opportunity while Gordon is out. I would trust Ekeler going forward – until Gordon is back 100%. One of the best value plays from week 1 & week 2 – unfortunately the DFS community has caught on & you will no longer get that type of value for Ekeler.
- Christian McCaffrey: Great week 1 but sub-par week 2. Is McCaffrey worth the price week in and week out? The uncertainty of the Panthers game plan makes me nervous but I expect McCaffrey to look more like week 1 rather than week 2 going forward. I think Cam is legit injured – which means more running plays and more short drop off passes to McCaffrey.
- Alvin Kamara: This RB was not playing up to his value, but paradigms have shifted with the Brees injury. Will this impact Kamara’s value in the positive or negative? I think under Bridgewater the offense will be more apt to dump offs and screen passes – making Kamara slightly more valuable than with Brees.
- Phillip Lindsay / Joe Mixon: 2 RBS that were held in a high regard going into the 2019. So far, these players are not as big a part of the game plan as expected – both players are averaging < 13 rushing attempts. I will be avoiding these players until we see a commitment from the Offensive Coordinator to feed these RBs Zeke style.
Tight Ends
- Mark Andrews / Evan Engram: The 2 best TEs so far in 2019. They both receive > 8 targets per game & have a high catch % (Andrews = 94.1% & Engram = 77.3%). These TEs are not just a flash in the pan but will be a huge part of the game plan for the Ravens & Chargers going forward. I expect these TEs to finish within the top 5 when the season is over.
- Austin Hooper: This TE Was viewed as a top TE going into 2019 but with Julio & Ridley – I just don’t see enough red zone targets to make Hooper valuable. I do not see Hooper being a top 7 TE when this season is said and done.
Wide Receivers
- Sammy Watkins: The biggest surprise from week 1 has to be Watkins. With Tyreek Hill down – expect Watkins to receive the necessary targets to make him an above average fantasy choice. Unfortunately, I do not see Watkins keeping this type of production up – he always stinks the week after he goes off. If Watkins is a top 10 WR when the season ends I would be shocked. Mahomes spreads the ball around too much to make Watkins elite, although he should see enough targets to be at least average week in and week out.
- John Ross: Ross leads the league in receiving / TDs & 2nd in Yards per Reception. This type of production is not sustainable from Ross or anyone that is catching Andy Dalton’s passes- avoid Ross going forward unless you are looking for a flyer that can potentially put up big points. Unfortunately for the next few weeks – I feel like Ross will be extremely overvalued.
- Devante Adams / Stefon Diggs: 2 Receivers who experts predicted would be top 10 receivers. Expect Adams to find his way and put up top 10 numbers, but I am not as confident for Diggs. Its obvious the Vikings want to run the ball & with Thielen on the other side – Diggs will not see the targets he needs to be a true WR1. He is currently valued as a WR1 – which I don’t think he is in 2019.
Ask Stephen any questions about Data, Visuals, DFS, etc. on Twitter (@StephenDataViz) or Instagram (@StephenDataViz)
