What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Top Monkey Knife Fight Plays article. If you haven’t made an account yet for Monkey Knife Fight, click on the link and use promo code Karma for a nice deposit bonus. In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight football props of the weekend. To find my other prop plays and all of the other staff’s favorite prop plays, make sure to sign up for our NFL Core Plays. I will be breaking down a couple of different props I like, but they will be paired with another play that I do not mention here. You have to pick the other side that they are paired with or sign up for our NFL Core Plays and ask us questions about the other side of our prop in discord!
Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 Fantasy Points:
I feel like this game could go a little overlooked in the DFS world, but I really want to get exposure to these two QBs. MKF is the best way to get that! Mahomes has been playing out of his mind again this year. He is trying to solidify himself as the MVP once again. No better time to do that, than against the GOAT. The Bucs are one of the best running defenses in the league, which means this will be a Mahomes 300+ 3 TD game.
Mahomes has played out of his mind this season but has shown his volatility. He is leading the league, averaging 303.5 passing yards per game. As well as, tied for first with Watson for 300 yards games with six. In games where he throws for more than 300 passing yards, he is averaging 360.5 passing yards, 3.16 passing touchdowns, and only one interception in those six games. This equates to a little over 30 fantasy points per game. He has only played four games where he went under 300 yards, in those games he went way under. Averaging 218 yards, two touchdowns per game. Which equates to 18.32 fantasy points per game. This all correlates with the number of pass attempts Mahomes threw. If he threw under 40 times, he went under 300 yards, and if he threw more than 40 times, he threw for more than 300 yards. This all had to do with either, weather or game script. In a normal game environment like we expect in Tampa this weekend he should have no issues reaching 26 fantasy points.
The FREE PROJECTIONS PORTAL has Patrick Mahomes projected for 24.35 fantasy points. Mahomes is projected for only 2.64 touchdowns, so if we round that up to three touchdowns he is then projected for 25.79.
Tom Brady OVER 19.5 Fantasy Points:
Brady has his ups and downs this season, but this roster is just way too stacked to go under on him this week. I’m sure we all know the saying, Brady never has two bad games in a row. 19.5 fantasy points, equates to 287.5 passing yards and two touchdowns or 187.5 passing yards and three touchdowns. This is very much in play in a game that is projected the highest scoring game on the slate. Brady has a prop over 300.5 passing yards, so most likely all he will need is two touchdowns. After he got destroyed by the Saints in primetime, he went to Carolina and tossed three touchdowns with 341 passing yards.
The Chiefs have been good defensively, but they are still exposable against great offenses in shootouts. The Bucs have so many weapons in their offense Brady should have an easy time find holes in this Chiefs defense that has played well this season. Going back to games where Mahomes threw for 300+ yards or more, the opposing QB averaged 1.8 more fantasy points than their average for the season. As well as, averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. This includes two duds from Lamar Jackson (16.18) and Sam Darnold (7.42). If you remove those two games. QBs averaged 24.78 fantasy points per game, which was 4.7 fantasy points above average. Brady is averaging 20.7 points per game. Combine this correlated matchup with the Angry Brady narrative, this should be an easy over.
The FREE PROJECTIONS PORTAL has Tom Brady projected for 20.87 fantasy points.
