What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Top Monkey Knife Fight Plays article. If you haven’t made an account yet for Monkey Knife Fight, click on the link and use promo code KARMA for a nice deposit bonus! In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight Football Props of the weekend. To find my other prop plays and all of the other staff’s favorite prop plays, make sure to sign up for our NFL Core Plays. I will be breaking down a couple different props I like, but they will be paired with another play that I do not mention here. You have to pick the other side that they are paired with or sign up for our NFL Core Plays and ask us questions about the other side of our prop in discord!
Davante Adams OVER 23.5 fantasy points:
What can I say, Adams in games he has been healthy has been historically amazing. He has only played five full games and six partial games, he is currently WR3 on the season. My main concern with this play is if Allen Lazard does play, will this take away some usage? I would be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a little worried. Teams still aren’t double-teaming Adams, which makes no sense, because Rodgers hates all his other WRs on his team. The way to shut down this high-powered offense for the Packers is simple, double team Adams! This will force Rodgers to throw to guys like, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Robert Tonyan, and Mercedes Lewis. Outside of Tonyan, Rodgers doesn’t really trust any of them to produce. MVS is fourth in the league, with five drops this season, and has dropped 13% of his targets. Adams has yet to drop a single pass this season.
Adams is commanding all of Rodgers attention in the passing game. Through five healthy games; Adams is on the field for 95% of passing snaps, has a 35% target share, hauling in 40% of Rodgers completions, has 45% of his teams receiving yards, and 53% of Rodgers touchdown passes. I will always say these numbers would be unsustainable in any other offense, but not this one. Again, Rodgers just hates all his other receiving options and if Tonyan and Lazard get ruled out, look for another big game from Adams.
The Matchup is extremely favorable as well. According to our FREE WR/CB matchups chart, Adams has a matchup rank of 2, which for Adams, is way too easy. He should be matched up against Sidney Jones a majority of the game, who is allowing 1.83 yards per route covered. He is also allowing a target on 19% of his routes covered. Although, he has been surprisingly well, only allowing a 50% catch rate, which is one of the best in the league.
The FREE Projections Portal on the site has Davante Adams projected for 23.27, which is just under his prop. This is mainly due to him being projected for 0.91 touchdowns. So, if you round that up to one touchdown, he is now projected for 23.87, which is right over the prop. While the projections have this close, I believe that he can easily out preform expectations. Most projections tools will factor in some regression, but I just don’t see that happening soon with Adams, unless Lazard play.
James Robinson OVER 15.5 fantasy points:
This undrafted rookie free agent has shocked the world and the fantasy community with his outstanding performance this season. He has had a fantastic start to his career, averaging 16.5 rushing attempts, 72.5 rushing yards, 4.3 targets, 3.4 receptions, 28 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns. He is on pace for 1,160 rushing yards, which would beat the undrafted rookie rushing record of 1,104 yards, set by Dominic Rhodes back in 2001. Even with Jake Luton as his QB, there seems to be no slowing down Robinson’s success.
Robinson seems to have fallen back to his week one worries for fantasy owners. Robinson only saw one target that week for one reception. Last week, he saw only two targets and zero receptions. This was the first time all season he was held to zero receptions. With the QB change this does show some worries that Luton isn’t going to check the ball down a ton. Minshew has dropped back 326 times, Robinson ran a route on 139 of those snaps. This was a route on 42% of his drop backs. Last week, Luton dropped back 43 times, while Robinson ran a route on 20 of those drop backs. Which was a route on 46% of his drop backs. So, we can clearly chop last week up to some variance. Another key to why we saw a decrease from Robinson, they were playing he Texans. Luton couldn’t have had an easier matchup in his first career start. There were no issues with him sitting back in the pocket and moving the ball down field. This week is a different story.
Green Bay is a much better defense, who doesn’t provide a lot of pressure, but their secondary is good enough to make Luton dump the ball off. Green Bay only applies pressure on 30% of drop backs, which ranks below average. They make up for it in a way the Texans couldn’t, with a good secondary. When Luton finds no one open, he will just dump it off to Robinson and get his receptions back to the normal three or four. Receptions are a lot more valuable than carries, which is why I focus more on that than the rushing matchup. Don’t get me wrong, rushing matchup is extremely important, but the game script is not going to be in Robinson’s favor, so we have to look at pass catching abilities.
The FREE Projections Portal on the site has James Robinson projected for 17.36, which is well above his prop.
