What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Top Monkey Knife Fight Plays article. If you haven’t made an account yet for Monkey Knife Fight, click on the link and use promo code KARMA for a nice deposit bonus! In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight football props of the weekend. To find my other prop plays and all of the other staff’s favorite prop plays, make sure to sign up for our NFL Core Plays. I will be breaking down a couple different props I like, but they will be paired with another play that I do not mention here. You have to pick the other side that they are paired with, or sign up for our NFL Core Plays and ask us questions about the other side of our prop in discord!
Keenan Allen OVER 17.5 fantasy points:
Allen is seeing a huge target share from Justin Herbert and is slowly becoming one of the top fantasy WRs in the league this year. Herbert isn’t afraid to sling it down field. When he needs something in the middle or a short route he goes to Allen, just like Brees would always find Thomas.
According to our FREE WR/CB matchup Keenan Allen has one of the best matchups in the league this week
He is going to be lining up against Lamarcus Joyner a majority of the game. Joyner has had a rough season, and this game should be no different. He is allowing a target on 17% of his routes covered, while Allen is getting a target on 30% of his routes run. Joyner is also allowing 1.31 yards per route covered, while Allen accumulates 2.29 yards per route ran. Joyner is only allowing 0.25 fantasy points per route covered, which is a great number, but that is what happens when you haven’t allowed a touchdown this season. Probably due to rarely covering in the red zone as a slot corer.
Allen as looked amazing this year; he has a 56% target share among his WRs. Meaning the Chargers have attempted 133 passing to WRs on their team, with 75 going to Allen. He also has a 33% overall target share on his team, even while missing one game. Allen’s volume seems unsustainable, but outside of deep threat WRs, the Chargers don’t have any other WRs to throw too. So, of course Herbert is going to be peppering Allen with targets. Similar to Davante Adams, teams don’t respect Allen enough to double him. As long as that’s the case he will continue to be a fantasy gold mine.
We have a rivalry game on our hands, and we know Allen loves to compete against the Raiders, so look for Herbert to try to find Allen early and often. In 11 games against the Raiders in his career, he is averaging around 10 targets per game, seven receptions, and over 70 yards per game, with four touchdowns over that stretch. Outside the Saints game, Allen has never seen under 8 targets and only under double digits once. He has never had huge touchdown upside, but his target share is always through the roof and leads to a very safe floor.
The Free NFL Projections Portal has Keenan Allen projected for 19.80
Julio Jones OVER 19.5 fantasy points
Jones’ number is way too low, especially if Calvin Ridley misses. We saw that Ridley had over a 30% target share in most games that Julio missed. He also came close to 50% air yards for the team with Julio out. I am expecting a lot of targets for Jones this week, and even if Ridley plays Jones should kill it. If Ridley misses, there is a potential for double teams, which makes Ridley playing not a huge issue.
According to our FREE WR/CB matchup Julio Jones has one of the best matchups in the league this week
He is going to be lining up against Michael Ojemudia a majority of the game. He is allowing a target on 15% of his routes covered, while Jones is getting a target on 24% of his routes run. Ojemudia is also allowing 1.43 yards per route covered, while Jones accumulates 2.83 yards per route ran. Ojemudia is only allowing 0.28 fantasy points per route covered, which is a great number, but that’s the only thing he has going for him so far this season.
In the five games Julio has been healthy, he has seen 9+ targets in four of them. He recording 97 yards or more in all the games he saw 9+ targets. Julio and Matt Ryan just play better at home, which correlates with the higher scoring dome games. Last year at home, Ryan averaged 308 passing yards, while only averaging 288 passing yards on the road. Although, he sees a vast decrease in his TD:INT ratio, which as a WR the yards were more important that the TD:INT ratio. Ryan had 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the road, while only putting up 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions at home. Julio at home averaged 7.0 receptions per game with 103 receiving yards per game. On the road he averaged 6.3 receptions per game with 86 receiving yards on the road. Touchdowns are harder to predict in the NFL and that hasn’t been one of his strong suits in his career. If we see Ridley miss this weekend Julio’s touchdown upside increases drastically.
The Free NFL Projections Portal has Julio Jones projected for 21.31
