Joey’s Thursday Night Throwdown Showdown
So we have an interesting Thursday night football showdown slate tonight. I don’t really want to watch this game but that means I’ll have to throw a lineup into a tournament to make this game worth watching. Currently Vegas has this game at a 45 O/U with the 49ers at a 2.5 point favorite. Line will probably move now that Beathard is not starting This features a game where the TEs are the favorite targets on both teams and both teams have 1 win. It doesn’t look like there will be a ton of Excitement but I will help dig into this game and find the hidden stars that will hopefully win you this slate. Everyone can figure out who the stars are but the value plays are where you win this slate and take home the green.
Studs/MVP
These plays are listed in order of my favorite MVPs. Price doesn’t always guarantee the best plays. QBs are normally peoples favorite play at MVP just because the floor they provide but every slate is different and sometimes we have that skill position guy who has a ton of usage take the number one spot.
George Kittle: He’s my favorite overall play on the slate. He has an amazing matchup tonight against the Raiders. Last week they released their safety Obi Melifonwu who they had specifically to guard the tight ends. We saw the next game that the Raiders got destroyed by the Colts TEs game. Jack Doyle goes for 6/70/1; Eric Ebron goes for 3/37/1 and even Mo Alie-Cox got involved with 1/26/1. In short what I’m saying is George Kittle is in the perfect matchup to break this slate.
I always have QBs in my MVP consideration just because they will touch the ball every play and have the best chance to score the most points on the slate or at least will have the best floor on the slate.
Derek Carr: The 49ers are one of the worst teams against the pass in the league so I would expect Carr to have good game. They are in the bottom of the league in passing yards, passing TDs, and INT. They have allowed 18TDs and 2 INTs. Carr has a great chance of being the highest scoring player in this game.
I guess I have to erase everything I wrote about Beathard because he is no longer starting.
Middle Tier
Jared Cook: He’s a borderline MVP/CPT candidate for me. If you are playing in a large field GPP on Fanduel and trying to take the 150k 1st price and not tie with a bunch of people Cook is your guy. He is leading the team in targets and only Richard is ahead of him in catches.
Jordy Nelson: He screwed everyone last week so I hope recency bias keeps ownership down. Richard Sherman is still one of the best CBs in the league and teams really just try to stay away from him because the rest of the team is so bad in coverage. Nelson is projected to matchup against Sherman only 20% of the time.
Matt Breida: Now that Beathard is not starting we have to take a bigger look at him at the running back. With a QB with no Pro snaps. Breida is a little banged up but Oakland has given up over 1000 rushing yards already this season and 8 TDs. I think a lot has to do with positive game script for teams. They will need to rely on him today and could see a high usage rate tonight with dump off passes boosting his floor
Jalen Richard: He has always been one of my favorite players with negative game script. Gruden loves just throwing to the running back while down just to get those short completions to boost stats. He has the most catches on the team and a majority of those catches come in the 4th quarter or 2 minute warnings. don’t be surprised if he has nothing and all of a sudden after one drive he has 5 catches for 30 yards. I hate how his price is high I loved playing him when he was below 1k and got me a ton of catches at no ownership when no one realized he was there but now that Lynch is done for the season they finally decided to price him to where he is supposed to be. DK PLAY
Marquise Goodwin: Oakland ranks 30th in the league in deep ball passes. Goodwin loves the deep ball. 3 of his 4 TDs have been from 30+ yards. Goodwin is definitely a boom or bust type of player. The matchup here just seems really nice and don’t be surprised if he takes another TD for 30+.
Kicker and Defenses
Kickers: If you want to go a kicker I would say Robbie Gould is your best bet. We don’t know how this offense will be without Beathard. I know Beathard wasn’t a great QB but we know what we are getting from him.
Defense: There’s not much defense that will be played in this game as I mentioned earlier the 49ers only have 2 interceptions on the season. The Raiders are one of the worst teams at getting pressure to the QB. This seems like a slate where I will be avoiding the defenses with not much upside from either of them. Now that Mullens is starting I could see myself taking a shot at Raiders D. We only have preseason stats to go on, but he threw 3 interceptions in preseason and has no pro snaps.
Cheap Tier
Nick Mullens: I won’t say much about this play he’s a starting QB at min salary on FD and cheap on DK. Just play him. Raiders have a problem getting to the QB they are at the bottom of the league in pressure and sacks. This works perfect for Mullins who is making his first start. He should have plenty o time to make his reads.
Kendrick Bourne: Last game he was able to grab 7 catches on 10 targets with 30 routes run. That’s a season high in every category. He also led the team in air yard with 84. He’s min price on FD and he should one of your top options for salary relief today.
