What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown. I hope you had an amazing week 2. Let’s start week 3 off with all GREEN! Tonight will feature two of the worst teams in the league, but because both teams lack any defensive weapons this game still should be fun to watch with a potential shootout. Make sure if you haven’t, to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns.
Vegas totals
The Jaguars are 3 point favorites tonight against the Dolphins. With a 49 point game total.
Historical Matchup
The Dolphins and the Jags have played each other four times over the last decade. Tonight we see the total a lot higher than we have seen in the past with these two teams. They haven’t seen a total higher than 42 during this time. Mainly due to the fact the Jags used to have an amazing defense. Compared to this year their defense is awful. Both teams will look to score and lead to a sneaky shootout. Three out of four of these games in the past have gone under and the only time they went over was by 1 point. Thursday night games are usually lower scoring. I could see a shootout tonight but it’s more likely this game stays under.
12/23/2018: Dolphins (Home) 7 Jags (Away) 17. Dolphins: -3.0 Game Total: 39.5
09/20/2015: Jags (Home) 20 Dolphins (Away) 23. Jags: +5.5 Game Total: 42.0
10/26/2014: Jags (Home) 13 Dolphins (Away) 27. Jags: +7.0 Game Total: 42.0
12/16/2012: Dolphins (Home) 24 Jags (Away) 3. Dolphins: -7.5 Game Total: 38.5
Quarterbacks
I don’t always run two QB lines for showdowns on DK but tonight is looking like a great night for that!
Gardiner Minshew: It’s Minshew Mania again this year. Minshew has played great this year. Starting the season 1-1, in two tough divisional games. While he’s only had one game over 300 yards with the other game under 200 yards he still has played amazing. He’s put up 3 touchdowns in both games but will be without his best WR; DJ Chark. He still has other weapons to throw to tonight. I will be deciding for MVP if I want to go Fitz or Minshew but both are great plays and will find themselves in my lineups tonight. I have faded projected favorite’s Quarterbacks most showdown slates this year but this is a perfect time to hammer both today.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: We will get to see Fitzmagic in primetime tonight. This is a rare occurrence, he has only played two games in primetime over the last 3 years. One game he had over 400 yards 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions against the Steelers and last year he had 190 yards 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions also against the Steelers. The Jags have a bottom 5 defense in the league and with a projected negative game script we could see Fitz get a little boast at the end of the game. These boasts mean a lot especially if they are enough to get you over the 300 yard bonus. I fell from second to 7th in a tournament last primetime game because Drew Brees was able to reach the 300 yard mark even after a bad game. GAME SCRIPT MATTERS!
Runningbacks
James Robinson: Robinson has been one of the surprises of the season, but that is common from the runningback position. We always see at least one no name runningback from a small college take over the NFL. There are a plethora of these guys and that’s why the term runningbacks don’t matter came about. Why pay Fournette when his replacement can do just as good of a job. Robinson is more of a ground and pound guy, who really isn’t that involved in the passing game. So, if the Jags manage to get behind in this game then he will get game scripted out of the game. This could lead to some great leverage plays. It’s not always about picking the right guys in showdowns, it’s about leveraging your line to maximize your ceiling. I love Robinson to have a great game tonight he is projected for 20 carries but that is only going to happen if we see the Jags winning this game. So it’s optimal to play Robinson tonight but you can gain a lot of leverage fading him by playing Chris Thompson. Who we saw with way more snaps and routes last week in a loss, than we saw week 1.
Myles Gaskin: Before the season started everyone assumed Brieda and Howard would be the main two backs in this offense but that hasn’t been the case at all this year. Gaskin showed signs of stardom last year but never had the chance to prove himself, but this year he is getting the majority of the work in this Dolphins offense. I don’t care about the carries for Gaskins because that isn’t where the bulk of his fantasy production is coming from. Week 1 Howard had the same amount of carries and week 2 Brieda had the same amount of carries. The Dolphins will be playing from behind a majority of games this season and Gaskin is running a route on upwards of 60% of all passing attempts which makes him an extremely viable fantasy producers especially in full PPR formats. The value of a reception is a lot more than the value of a rush.
Pass Catchers
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has been amazing this season and is coming off a huge 30 point fantasy game last week. Gesicki isn’t your normal TE and we really shouldn’t even classify him as a TE. He actually has more snaps out wide than he does as an inline TE. He has 15 snaps out wide and only 7, including only 1 last week, as an inline TE. He plays a majority of the time in the slot so he is basically their slot WR. He has seen 70-75% of his snaps in the slot this year. This creates a mismatch teams haven’t been able to stop yet this season and I don’t expect the Jags to be able to figure it out either.
Dede Westbrook: With Chark out we should see an increased roll from Westbrook. Westbrook has shown signs of talent and with his price it’s hard to pass up on him. Westbrook has yet to play a snap all season due to a shoulder injury but is not on the injury report tonight. Last year we saw Dede take around 80% of his snaps in the slot which could spell trouble for Cole who has been getting a majority of his work out of the slot. Other pass catchers should see an increase. Collin Johnson plays left side WR so we could see him slide into Chark’s role. I’m sure Dede will see a lot of ownership tonight but don’t sleep on Johnson.
