What’s up DFS Grinders to another edition of my Thursday Night Showdown throwdown article. We have a QB revenge game battle between the Vikings and the Redskins. At first, you might think to yourself this game is going to be completely one-sided that being reenforced with the Vikings being 17 point favorites. Is his play over the past 3 games going to draw me away from the fact that Cousins in 1-4 in primetime since joining the Vikings? No, no it is not. Let’s see if Cousins can turn around the narrative of being a below average QB when it comes to primetime games.
Vegas Lines
Interesting stat as we move through the season pertaining to primetime games. The unders have been hitting like crazy: TNF: 4-3 SNF: 7-0 MNF: 6-2 (Week 1 there were two MNF games 1-1).
The Vikings are 17 point favorites at home against the redskins with a 42.5 game total.
MVP Tier
Dalvin Cook: He is my number one play on both sites tonight and should be rostered in your Thursday-Monday lineups. Cook is coming off a couple of sub-par matchups where Cousins was forced to throw the ball but that’s just not the identity of this football team. The Vikings came into the season saying they want to pound the ground game as much as possible but that just isn’t the case in bad matchups so they had to resort to throwing the ball. Everyone forgets how bad Cousins is and primetime just isn’t his friend either. The Vikings will look to run the ball as much as they can tonight against the Redskins who have given up 120 or more rushing yards in losses 5 out of 6 times this season only time they didn’t was against the Bears. They are also giving up the 237th most fantasy points to running backs this season while only allowing 5 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Kirk Cousins: I’m not a huge fan of this play but he is going to be getting a ton of chalk and for good reason. I just don’t believe this is the route to go to win a GPP tonight there are better options. Kirk is getting his first game against the Skins since leaving them for the Vikings. He really wants to keep his 300 yard passing streak alive here but that could easily disappear with the potential blowout risk which is why I am not a fan of him as a safe MVP play. The Vikings want tot run the ball and that’s what they do best and with a lead, the Vikings rank 8th in the league for run rate in positive game script per sharp football stats. Even though the Vikings seem to be passing the ball more and more; over the past 3 weeks, Minnesota ranks 7th in run% while leading by 1 or more touchdowns after the second quarter.
Middle Tier
Olabisi Johnson: Who? Exactly. Johnson is a no name WR who is going to break the slate tonight We all know the Redskins defense is horrible but where exactly are they horrible. I’m sure you have heard the hype all week. Per Football outsiders, the Skins rank first in DVOA to WR1s and last against WR2s. So naturally, we would just fade Diggs and play Johson for all the monies. Plus he had a beautiful 90 air yards. I’m ready for the explosion tonight.
Adrian Peterson: AP has a wonderful and glorious revenge narrative tonight against the Vikings. He just ran over the 49ers who have a top 10 run defense in the wet rainy conditions. Now he’s back in Minnesota where he grinded out a potential Hall of Fame career. AP is injured on a short week so monitor news coming closer to lock.
Scary Terry: He is really the only threat the Skins have in the passing game. You take away the tough matchups against the Patriots and the 49ers and Terry is averaging 100 air yards per game which would rank 6th in the league as well as 15 FD points per game which would rank 7th in the league.
Cheap Tier
Wendell Smallwood: With Chris Thompson our and AP dealing with an injury on a short week the Skins will have to lean on Smallwood to have a bigger role in the offense. He is cheap enough to take a shot in GPPs but not safe at all.
Jeremy Sprinkle: If AP is a full go tonight, Sprikcle provides another angle of attack in the cheap tier. Sprinkle is coming off another increase in routes run % and high snap game seeing 79% of the snaps with both Davis and Reed out for the foreseeable future Sprinkle becomes a viable stretch play every week if you are feeling crazy. Crazy is what we like for showdowns.
Props
Props are what I’m known for at Karma and I’ve made my most money in the Fantasy industry playing props. It’s a safer use of your money playing “cash” type props than playing 50/50s on FD/DK for single game especially. Normally I like to play some safe props than play some GPPs on FD/DK.
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