What’s up DFS Grinders to another edition of my Thursday Night Showdown throwdown article. We have a fun divisional battle between the Chiefs and the Broncos.
Vegas Lines
The Chiefs are currently 3.5 point favorites on the road against the Broncos with a 48.5 point game total. Most of the money is coming in on the Chiefs ML and to cover the spread. As well as the under.
MVP Tier
Patrick Mahomes: This might come as a surprise to y’all but Mahomes is my favorite player on the slate. (obvious sarcasm). Of course, he’s the best play on the slate! Even though he is no longer on pace for over 50 passing touchdowns (Regression!!) He is averaging 350 passing yards a game which would be 5,600 yards over the course of the season. That would be most all time by over 100 yards. Even with the extreme success, Mahomes has had in his career he is actually 2-5 in primetime. That’s crazy to think about. Now Mahomes has his favorite target Tyreek Hill back and is ready to have a bounceback game after dropping two straight, they finally have an easy game against the Broncos who actually rank 4th best in the league allowing only 196 passing yards per game but they have yet to face an offense this good and are without Chubb eliminating a key pass rush option. The real question does defense really matter against Mahomes? No, no it doesn’t. What does matter is how well the opposing offense runs and manages the clock. The Colts had the right idea to keep the ball out of the Mahomes’ hands and slowly run out the clock, let’s see what the Broncos can do. It’s tough to fade a Mahomes in a showdown slate but there is some worry here, with teams figuring out if they control the time of possession they can win the game. In the Chiefs B2B losses the opposing team controlled the clock for over 35 minutes in each of them; holding the Chiefs to just 25 minutes and 20 minutes. Both games holding Mahomes to his worst passing yards total of the season.
Philip Lindsay: We all saw what the Colts did against the Chiefs two weeks ago: ran the ball 36 times with RBs for 160 yards. Then the Texans come in with their high powered passing offense. They just can’t stop the run. All but 2 games they have allowed a 100 yard rusher. Jacobs had 99 before he went out with an injury week 2 and week 1 they just didn’t run the ball enough but Fournette had over 5 yards a carry. If the Broncos want a chance to win this game they will have to rely not just on rushing yards but RBs in the passing game as well. Lindsay provides a huge ceiling in this game. It’s hard to get off Mahomes in the MVP spot just with the 20 point floor he provides but Lindsay is my favorite CPT on DK with his huge ceiling.
Tyreek Hill: Tyfreak is back and already inserted directly into the offense. He ran 22 routes last week and say 10 targets. That’s huge. Even though Harris will probably shadow him that’s not really that concerning to me. The pass rush for the Broncos isn’t very good especially with Chubb gone, which was part of the success for the Broncos last year holding the Chiefs and Hill in check. Yes, the Broncos killed the Titans last week but come on it’s the titans and semi-good defense can hold them in check. Give Mahomes time in the pocket and he will find Hill and Hill will go off. Hill could easily find himself in a 100+ yard 2 TD game for a ceiling performance. Especially at mile high with Mahomes can let it fly.
Middle Tier
Travis Kelce: Yes, I know he is a stud and you are probably asking yourself why he is only in the Middle Tier and not the MVP. There just hasn’t been a lineup where I see him being the highest scoring player in the lineup or the slate. Kelce has been great against the Broncos his whole career, this season just hasn’t been kind to him. He hasn’t had that WR1 game that we drafted him in the late first early second round. He has more drops this year than last year Mahomes and Kelce just hasn’t been on the same page. I would rather have Lindsay at the same price but I like fitting both of them in the same lineup if you can.
Joe Flacco: I don’t want to play him at MVP if I end up on him but I love playing home QBs vs the Chiefs. (Foles in cash). The Chiefs defense is just not good and without the crowd noise and without all those pass rushers they lost from last year they can get easily exposed on the ground and the air.
Royce Freeman: There’s really no reason for him to be this cheap on these sites with his upside and snap rate. Freeman has outsnapped Lindsay in 4 out of the 6 games this year. I believe you have to get exposure to at least one of these guys in your lineups and I even love stacking both guys in the same lineup with the very low price tag that Freeman has.
Demarcus Robinson: Another week goes by and, another week of high air yards for Robinson. Last week Robinson had 74 air yards and connected 0 times on 4 targets. Even with Hill back Robsinson was still heavily involved in the passing attack. That may be because Watkins was out but if Watkins is out again (HE’S OUT) I’ll be firing up all the Robinson and hope they actually connect this week. Recency bias will keep everyone away and the upside is too much to pass up on at that price. He is the classic boom or bust play.
Cheap Tier
Noah Fant: TEs vs KC is as juicy as they come. Fant has yet to wow us with a ceiling performance but this is as good of a spot as ever to get him going. TEs have been able to get whatever they want against the Chiefs, TEs are averaging 9.3 targets, 7 catches, and 64.3 yards per game. That’s a 25% target share and 25% yardage share. Both some of the highest rates in the league. This could end up being Fants break out game and for only $2.1k he’s not only an amazing, but you can also fit him at CPT in bigger tournaments at sub 5% CPT ownership and fit whoever else you want.
Props
Props are what I’m known for at Karma and I’ve made my most money in the Fantasy industry playing props. It’s a safer use of your money playing “cash” type props than playing 50/50s on FD/DK for single game especially. Normally I like to play some safe props than play some GPPs on FD/DK.
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