What’s up DFS grinders and welcome back to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown article. We have a great divisional battle between LA at Seattle.
Vegas Odds
Seattle is currently 1 point favorites at home against the Rams with a got total of 49.5. Obviously we know that all these Thursday night Showdown slates have been low scoring. Last week we finally had a high scoring Thursday game but with Goff on the road, this game could easily stay under with Seattle getting an early lead and pounding the run all game. Picks: Seattle -1 and under.
MVP
There are a couple of game theories around different MVPs for this game.
Russell Wilson: He is my favorite candidate for MVP. Russ has the safest floor of both the QBs. His yards aren’t that high on Thursday games but the touchdowns and wins are always a factor in the Seahawks 7-1 record on Thursday throughout Wilson’s career. He is projected for 22 against this is the QB you need tonight to cash.
Chris Carson: These final two guys are my bold call low ownership MVP calls. Carson is another low owned MVP that could easily pay off value and be the highest-scoring player in the game. We have a team in the Seahawks who low to run the ball when they are winning, slow down this game and come out with a low scoring victory. Even with a top 5 QB in the league they still will lean completely on the run to win this game. With Seattle as a home favorite and Goff turnover-prone especially playing on the road Seattle could easily get a two-touchdown lead early and run Carson into the floor for a quick low scoring game. Get the game theory right in this game and he can lead you to a GPP takedown.
Brandin Cooks: These final two guys are my bold call low ownership MVP calls. Cooks is going to be the lease owned of the three guys in the Rams passing attack but not overlook he has the best matchup of the three according to PFF. He is always a big play waiting to happen and barely missed a TD at the end of the first half which would have changed his ownership for this game for sure. Obviously not the most optimal play but I love his boom or bust capabilities in what could be a slow game he could be the only one with a TD on this team at the end of the night and it wouldn’t surprise me.
FADE: Jared Goff I don’t mind playing him on FD if you have the salary but I’m taking a stand and keeping him out of the MVP spot. He could definitely end up with a couple of TDs but his home-road splits are too broad to see a ceiling performance. Especially with the weather being low 50s and cloudy which is the opposite of his beautiful southern Cali weather he loves to play in.
Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp: Woods and Kupp are always the two safer plays in the offense just due to the sheer volume that they are getting. I like these plays but just outside of the MVP spot. Both are seeing 10+ targets in 50% of the games. Kupp has seen 9+ in all 4 games with Woods having some floor showings. According to PFF the WR/CB matchups go Cooks –> Kupp –> Woods.
Mid Tier
Tyler Lockett: He burned a lot of the public last week in their cash games but you need a bad short term memory in this industry. Lockett was coming off two straight 10 target games and is a great stack with Wilson. He is Wilson’s favorite target and in a great spot to have a great game.
DK Metcalf: He is 17th in the league in air yards but 37th in the league in receiving yards. As well as ranking 8th in the league in aDOT with WR over 10 targets. He has huge big play ability; the classic boom or bust play.
FADE: Todd Gurley Yes he could end up with 2 TD and 40 scrimmage yards but that’s not something that banking on. There’s no point eating that ownership if you are hoping for luck. Touchdowns are basically random, yeah you can predict volume but predicting TDs are tough.
Cheap Tier
Malcolm Brown: Yes, I’ll say it and some people (AC) aren’t going to like it. I don’t trust Gurley’s knee on a short week. Yes, he only saw 5 carries, but he did see 7 catches as well. Yes, catches aren’t the same as running into the pile with a bunch of 300-pound linemen, but it still takes a toll. The coaching staff has no idea how Gurley’s knee is going to hold up this season so why would they push him and give him a ton of touches tonight when they have shown caution with Gurley this season already. Brown is the perfect leverage play on Gurley’s ownership.
Jaron Brown: He is seeing the third-most passing snaps on the team, and is coming off B2B 3 reception games. He is only 1.4k on 6.5k on FD. Obviously the price on DK is way more appealing. I love the punt play here and frees up plenty of salary here and just needs two catches to hit value. I feel like he goes under owned here as well.
Props
