Wow, it’s already week 3!! This season is already starting to fly by. Welcome back DFS Grinders to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. Tonight we a what could be another boring Night game as the Jags will be hosting a windy Rainy game against the Titans.
Vegas Lines
The Titans are 1.5 point favorites on the road against the Jags with a 40 point game total. This game was just down to 37 game total earlier today but it is back up with Weather concerns dying down.
MVP
So some quick game notes before we get into it. This game is projected the slowest paced game at 34 seconds per play as well as projected rain and high wind gusts influencing the passing attack.
Derrick Henry: Love this play. Henry has been one of the best running backs in the league this year. He still isn’t getting the snap volume that I thought but is still playing enough to be the number 3 scoring back this year. We have seen these two teams play either with similar rosters and I’m not expecting a Henry 4 TD game but I am expecting him to be the highest-scoring player on the slate outside maybe Fournette as a sleeper pick.
Leonard Fourentte: He is a sneaky overall best play on the slate especially on DK. Surprisingly, Fourenette is more involved in the passing game compared to last year. He is up 3 targets per game and is ranked 5th among RBs in targets. This just ups his floor even more than most starting RBs. I love starting most of my lineups with both Henry and Fourentte as a project these passing attacks not to get much going especially on Tnnesee’s side of things.
QBs: This is a place I will be avoiding tonight outside maybe a Minshew stack with a Henry one-off. Mariota shouldn’t be a factor in this game and at that price, he is my player to fade. I usually prefer QBs in high total games where they really need TDs to pay off value. If you take away Mariota’s screen pass to Henry which won’t happen again Mariota hasn’t done much all season. Minchew is a different story in an easier matchup than Mariota. Even with Fournette in your lineup, you can still get the most out of Minchew with Fournette’s involvement in the passing game.
Mid Tier
Delanie Walker: He is my favorite play in the Titans passing attack. First, he doesn’t have to deal with Ramsey or Bouye. (Assuming they are playing). Per PFF, he has the second-best TE matchup of the week. PFF also rates Walker as the best offensive TE so far this year outside out Howard and Everrett (Who are no factors). As well as leading the Titans in targets, receptions, and Touchdowns.
DJ Chark: This is a boom or bust play, yes he saw 9 targets last game but I think this is worthy of a fade tonight. Week one with Lee active 80% snap count and a 70% routes run rate. Last week he saw an uptick in snaps and routes which lead to more targets. He has the highest aDOT on the team with 13.8 while also accumulating 139 out of his 201 yards on 3 deep balls. He’s a high upside play but watch out for the low floor.
Dede Westbrook: Dede is the safe volume play here which is good for full PPR floor. HE has very little aDOT. Around 3.1 yards per target with a 6/11 catch rate. If the wind and rain start picking up he could be the perfect low aDOT play you need to cash. The upside is limited but the floor is nice enough.
Disclaimer: While yes I have some of these guys as fades or unders for props doesn’t mean you can’t play them in a correlation game stack hope for a ceiling play. This is showdown DFS, the optimal plays aren’t always the best. Rolling Henry with a stack of the Jax passing offense is one of my favorite ways to go on the slate.
Cheap Tier
JAX TEs: Yes they are both in play but they have a vastly different price on DK so if you can fit O’Shaughnessy then great! If not, just roll with Swain for 1.2k less. They both have run about 50% of the passing routes and have both seen 4 targets in every game this year. If you need safe value these are your guys.
Kickers/Defenses
Unfortunately, I have to talk about kickers and defenses for this game because more likely than not the winning lineup will have at least one of them. Last year the games ended 9-6 and 9-30 so both these defenses have taken advantage of the poor passing offenses of the past to hold these teams to low scoring games. Outside, of course, Henry’s explosion. All 4 guys are in play tonight, but Titans would be my least favorite just based on price alone. You can get much more value out of Jax.
Props
We have a prop party podcast that drops every Thursday morning so you can get a much more in-depth thought on the TNF slate as well as the props in the game.
I’m sure you have seen all our success on twitter with props as well. So if you want to join our Discord and get all my plays. Then use the code “Replay” for 20% off any package you want. These offers won’t last long so get them in now while you can.
