Well, I hope you guys enjoyed week 1 and finished green! If not there is plenty of season left it’s just week one shake it off and get back out there.
Vegas Lines
We are 4-1 this year for article bets!! (Over hit in the Saints game and the under hit on the Raiders game)
The Panthers are 7 point favorites against the Bucs with a 49.5 game total.
Favorite bet: I like the Panthers -6.5 so I would suggest buy .5 points and making the spread -6.5 instead of -7. I hate pushes and it gives us the TD lead.
MVP
Christian McCaffrey: He is the overall best play on the board and the safest play out there. His usage is through the roof and he played every snap which was obviously the highest rate out of all the running backs in the league. He also had 30 touches which is the highest mark of running backs. He should be the centerpiece of your lineups like he is the centerpiece of the Panthers offense. Thi sis the just the obvious play tonight and make sure you keep pounding his over on Priepicks (29) and MKF (27).
QB battle: I prefer Newton over Winston in this game. Newton has the upper hand in this matchup. Winston has not had success against the Panthers his whole career averaging 257 passing yards 1 TD and 1.3 Interceptions per game in 7 total games. Which is a big enough sample size to matter. Newton, on the other hand, has one of the best B matchups in the game right now and will be with his TE Greg Olson is appears. He should have a nice bounce back game here as he faces a much easier pass rush. The Rams ranked third last year in pressuring the QB while TB ranked 31st. As well as going from a top 5 rated coverage team to a bottom 5 rated coverage team per PFF. Basically going from a great defense to one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cam should have more time to throw in the pocket and even pick up some scrambling yards as he finishes recovering from his preseason foot injury.
Fade: Mike Evans is my MVP fade tonight. You can pair this with fading Winston for optimal correlation. Not only are we dealing with a projected low passing game output from Winston resulting in just fewer opportunities for Evans. We also see that Evan has been historically bad whole being shadowed by James Bradberry. HE has 4 games with Bradberry shadowing him and resulted in averaging 4 catches 57 yards and no touchdowns with a 47% catch rate. That is just too low for his price and I’m going to follow history tonight and stay away from him in a tough matchup. I mentioned fading Winston but if you have the salary go for it, just don’t force it. Go CMC at cpt then you don’t have to worry about anything when he breaks the slate.
MID TIER
Chris Godwin: Someone is needing the catch balls and produce from a fantasy side and it should be Godwin. He will have an easier time tonight as Evans will be busy with the Panthers best Corner. Who not only has a great history against Evans was graded out as the best CB last week only allowing 1 cath on 4 targets to a great WR corp. Godwin also saw 57% of his snaps in the slot which is a great sign fo creating mismatches. He also had 2 RZ targets with one TD and the other target should have been a TD as well if Winston didn’t completely drop the ball on the pass.
DJ Moore: Should be the top receiving option for the Panthers here outside of CMC. He received 10 targets and hauled in 7 of them which is an excellent rate. If he sees 10 targets again against a much worse defense he will be able to hit a ceiling and bring you to victory.
Greg Olson: He has great potential but I have fears he is going to be limited tonight IF he plays and that’s a big if. Olson managed 9 targets last week and he is going up against one of the worst defenses vs TEs. Kittle should have had 3 TEs last week if it wasn’t for BS flags. Just be on the watch for his injury.
Fade: OJ Howard: Howard was only on the field for 55% of the snaps. He is clearly the better TE and one of the best in the league but he isn’t getting the volume as he should. Brate’s presence is still being felt. Brate saw a RZ target and had 2 RZ TDs called back due to flags.
CHEAP TIER
Cameron Brate: Like I touched on earlier Howard only played 55% of the snaps and Brate is still the Winston’s favorite RZ target. HE could have seen 2 RZ TDs if they weren’t called back for flags. He is a touchdown or busy guy but he is an amazing low owned leverage play which will correlate perfectly into an OJ Howard fade.
PROPS
As always I save the best for the end. Props are now officially better than actually DFS for me. We are 1-0 on the season for Monkey Knife Fight and 0-1 on the season for Prizepicks (Dumb Allison).
Prizepicks: Ronald Jones under 9.0 fantasy points and DJ Moore OVER 15.5 fantasy points.
MKF: 
Sam and I will have a prop podcast every Wednesday night (It may e released Thursday morning), talking props in Thursday Night Football props and our favorite games to target on Sunday. We have been having issues with the audio the first three weeks. This week we finally got it posted forgive the still bad audio. Next week should be much better and we will have our shit together then.
