It has finally arrived; Football season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope everyone is as excited as I am for the NFL to start, I’m sure if you are reading this article you are as much of a degen as I am. It’s Thursday Night Football so you know what that means, we are back where it all started one year ago with my Showdown Throwdown article. I have learned a lot in my one year working at DFSKarma and I’m excited to apply everything I’ve learned into much better articles for football season this year. If you have been with me since the start I thank y’all for riding with me through the ups and downs. I hope I have carried a lot of you over through my props articles. Of course, we are going to be talking about props towards the end of the article so be patient with me as I carry on about my thoughts on the game tonight.
Vegas Line: Da Bears are 3 point favorites at home against the Packers with a 46 point game total.
We should see the Bears pull this win off but never know what Rodgers has up his sleeve. Looking like an under to me as well especially if the Bears win which they are projected to do. Under the Packers team total of 21 is also appealing.
MVP Tier
Let’s take look into who we can consider as MVPs for tonight. I believe you have to decide between three guys. Rodgers, Trubisky, and Adams. There are different ways each can get to MVP level so we have to take a look into game theory. which plays a huge role in Showdowns to optimize your percentage of reaching the ceiling.
Aaron Rodgers (FD/DK Play): He will most likely be the highest owned MVP but I’m not feeling the play at MVP. I don’t mind the play as a flex play with Adams at MVP and Allison in the flex for the stack. If you are playing Rodgers this slate non-MVP make sure to have Adams as your MVP. Crazy stat of the day: Rodgers has not thrown a TD pass in Chicago since 2015. Yes he is going to throw one tonight but the fact remains this is a tough defense and I would rather grab the passing catching side of this game for the volume points than the QB where if he doesn’t put up more than two TDs than he will not hit value from just the passing yards which I don’t see him over 275 (11 points). Everyone wants to get exposure to either one or both QBs for those safe points. Tip: Don’t play Rodgers and take the savings with Mitch to optimize your salary allocations with the same ceiling. DK thoughts: Avoid him at the CPT spot.
Davante Adams (FD/DK Play): Adams is the perfect MVP tonight and is my top guy for the job. He is basically matchup proof and is the top price for a reason on DK for full point PPR. Even with the amazing defense Adams still logged two huge games vs the Bears included over 100 yards and 8 catching late in the December cold against the top defense in the league. Adams is still going to get his and when he slides into the slot (where he did over 10 a game in 13/16 games) he might get close to half of his points in those couple targets against Skrine. DK thoughts: He could easily be the highest scoring player of the game especially in full PPR format. Great CPT but tough to fit who you want.
Mitch Trubisky (FD/DK Play): This is the cheap MVP option and the most contrarian the perfect edge play with a similar ceiling as Rodgers and Adams which allows you to separate yourself from the field. His rushing upside is what I’m looking at here. His passing talent is questionable but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a great fantasy QB. We get the Nagy offense with the rushing upside of Mitch who was 3rd in scramble yards is always a treat to grab a couple more fantasy points on the ground based on running upping his ceiling above all with the potential rushing TD. DK thoughts: Perfectly fine as CPT pair him with Robinson and Cohen avoiding Montgomery.
Mid Tier
CPT ALERT: Geronimo Allison (FD/DK Play): Geronimo Allison: He is my favorite player on the board for value and his ceiling is crazy this game. For some reason, the Bears signed Skrine as their slot CB. He is the worst CB ever I just don’t know how to say it but just target him. Please do it. Skrine ranks bottom 5 in every slot coverage that matters. He is just bad really bad. I just want to keep this short and sweet I will leave at this PLAY HIM. He will be my highest owned player and should be the highest owned player on the slate. He is the chalk you need not to behind everyone tonight. I normally don’t say to lock someone in for Showdown but this is the exception to the rule as Rodgers cheapest pass catcher. He is my only choice from this game that I would play on the Thursday-Monday slate. This should be an ugly game for real slate value but he is a diamond in the rough tonight. I have a good feeling he will be on the GPP takedown on that slate. Where he is only $5.5k on FD and $4.1k on DK. Just lock those in and start your Thursday-Monday lineups with him.
Allen Robinson (DK play): He has a nice matchup against GB around average defense but where I am looking is Alexander. Yeah, he is set to make improvements, but the fact is last year he hit a big rookie wall when we saw him make the switch from slot to outside WR. Graded one of the best slot corners in the league he ended up, grading one of the worst outside corners in the league. Robinson has had to deal with Trubisky’s accuracy flaws but if he can turn it around this season all those targets will turn into a lot more receptions for him which is great for the upside in this play. DK thoughts: High volume ceiling for full PPR if Mitch can hit him more consistently this year.
Players to Avoid: MVS, Jones
Cheap Plays
Cordarrelle Patterson (FD/DK Play): Well I did it. I tried to convince myself not to add him into the player pool but here I am 5 hours to kickoff touting Patterson in 2019. He just got off a campaign with the Pats and is looking for a fresh starting coming into his 7th season not really accomplishing anything outside of a return specialist. This is the opportunity he has been waiting for his whole career. Nagy is intending on using Patterson all over the field so we can see plenty of chances for Patterson to explode on a mismatch against an LB. This is no way a cash safe play but he has a nice sneaky ceiling that no one is expecting. DK thoughts: Provides the salary relief to fit Adams at CPT.
Adam Shaheen (DK play): He is the cheapest you can go here but it all depends if Burton is out. He doesn’t need you to get much even just one catch will get him to value. Not much to touch on, he will probably be chalk on DK but I’m still avoiding him on FD because one or two catches isn’t that big of a deal on FD for that price.
Kickers: I’m playing Pineiro over Crosby if you really need the salary relief and want to go that way but not many of my game theory possible roster constructions have led me to that point.
Defense: I’m not playing them tonight. The only way the Packers defense hits value is if we see a pick-six which I’m not seeing any signs leading to that. Only random variance will get you there if you want to rely on that.
Props!!!!
We have finally arrived at the best part of the article, Props!! We finally have a full season of props for the NFL season that we didn’t have last year when we partnered with MKF the season was already basically over in late December. Now we have a full season to squeeze the most profit out of these sites as we can. Now let’s get down to business.
Unfortunately, Prizepicks has a rule where you can’t pair a QB with their pass catcher so no QB + WR/TE correlation plays
Allison OVER 10.7 fantasy points: I touched on his matchup above. This should be a smash spot for him.
Cohen OVER 12.5 fantasy points: With Burton predicted out this should give a bump t Cohen leading to more safety volume. We could see upwards of 8 catches.
We have been dropping plenty of Props in our discord chat already before any of these games have started. Don’t miss out and have to watch all of our screenshots from a distance on Twitter. Join Karma Nation today and get in on the action! If you still have any hesitations use promo code “REPLAY” For 20% off the life of your membership. Saving around $7 a month of discord packages.
