What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. I hope you had an amazing week 14. Let’s start off the week with tons of green on this Thursday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out! Monkeyknifefight and Prizepicks, Promo code: KARMA, have been around for a couple of years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites hop in our discord and message me. Our NFL Core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays! What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings, you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier, this is similar to FanDuel, the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x as well. On FanDuel, the MVP spot it does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and fewer ties for DraftKings compared to FanDuel. Which is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings, you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas Totals
The Raiders are 3.5 point favorites tonight against the Chargers. With a 51.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
11/08/20: Chargers: 26 Raiders: 31 Chargers Spread: +1.0 O/U: 52.5
12/22/19: Chargers: 17 Raiders: 24 Chargers Spread: -7.5 O/U: 45.0
11/07/19: Chargers: 24 Raiders: 26 Chargers Spread: -1.5 O/U: 49.0
11/11/18: Chargers: 20 Raiders: 06 Chargers Spread: -10.0 O/U: 50.5
10/07/18: Chargers: 26 Raiders: 10 Chargers Spread: -5.5 O/U: 51.5
12/31/17: Chargers: 30 Raiders: 10 Chargers Spread: -6.5 O/U: 43.0
10/15/17: Chargers: 17 Raiders: 16 Chargers Spread: +3.0 O/U: 48.0
12/18/16: Chargers: 16 Raiders: 19 Chargers Spread: +2.5 O/U: 50.0
10/09/16: Chargers: 31 Raiders: 34 Chargers Spread: +3.5 O/U: 50.5
12/24/15: Chargers: 20 Raiders: 23 Chargers Spread: +4.0 O/U: 45.0
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert has been playing like the offensive rookie of the year all season, but tonight I have my worries about him. Even though the Raiders are missing a lot of defensive players, the Chargers will be without Mike Williams and potentially without Kennan Allen, who is a true game-time decision. This short week could spell trouble for this Chargers offense. After starting the season on an unsustainable pace, averaging 306 yards, 2.4 touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions per game, Herbert has seemed to hit a “Rookie Wall”. Over his last five games, he is averaging 264 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, and one interception per game. His rushing numbers have taken a hit as well. He went from averaging 24 yards per game over his first seven starts to only 3.8 over his last five. Including -2 in his last three. Rushing numbers are extremely important and if he is not scrambling it really limits his ceiling.
The Raiders’ defense has been suspect this season and they will be going into the game full of injuries. They are allowing 6.0 yards per play, and allow the highest score % in the league. 50.8% of their defensive drives have ended in an offensive score. They are also allowing 256 passing yards per game, which ranks 8th worst in the league. This defense was already giving up a ton and with all the injuries I am not expecting much defense on either side.
Derek Carr has been tough to read this season. He has had some MVP type games, where he is playing like his old self, pre back injury. He has also played like bad Carr putting up less than 250 yards in five games this season. Carr is a boom or bust guy, that depending on the game script and the health/production of Josh Jacobs, will make him an amazing play tonight or just an average one. If you think the Raiders will be playing from behind he is a great play. If you think that the Raiders get an early lead and milk the clock the rest of the game, fade him. The Raiders will be perfectly fine giving the ground game a ton of production tonight.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler said on his twitch stream that his quad was good to go and that he shouldn’t be limited tonight. With the injury concerns to Williams and Allen in the passing game, this could easily turn into a ceiling game for Ekeler. Ekeler is one of those game script proof running backs who are extremely valuable in fantasy football. If Allen is ruled out, I don’t see the Chargers leading this game at any point unless they score on the first drive. If they can’t get the offense moving this should lead to another double-digit target game for Ekeler. He has a very easy chance to be the highest scorer on the slate, while only being priced as the third-highest player on DraftKings.
If Ekeler isn’t 100%, we could see Kallen Ballage see an increased role if the Chargers are winning. Over the last two weeks, Ballage has played 38% and 32% of snaps. So he is still slightly involved in the game plan already. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they line Ekeler up in the slot and have Ballage/Jackson as the running backs. Only if Kennan Allen is ruled out and they will need another pass catcher. Ekeler has not seen more than 10 snaps in the slot in his career, but if the Chargers are thin at WR, I could see it happening.
We all know what happened last week with Josh Jacobs trolling fantasy owners with him saying he wasn’t playing last week and Matthew Berry being a drama queen about it. All I know is, if Jacobs is playing, he is one of the top options I am looking at tonight. Not a must play, but borderline must play. The Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league and with the game script how it has been, Jacobs could be instore for top volume and top efficiency. The Chargers are allowing 3.10 yards before contact. This should help out a struggling Raiders offensive line, who is only allowing 1.31 yards before contact. Last week Jacobs only played 43% of the offensive snaps. We could see Devontae Booker be involved again tonight. He makes a great potential leverage play against a chalky Josh Jacobs.
Chargers Pass Catchers
I have said this earlier in the article, but the Chargers will be without Mike Williams and potentially be without Kennan Allen. This is important news that we can’t decide on a final lineup until then. Obviously, if Allen plays he is an amazing play and should carve through this poor Raiders secondary. I hope he does play because his matchup in the slot is too good to pass up. Lamarcus Joyner has allowed 1.31 yards per route covered, allowed the fourth-most yards in the slot, and a 71% catch %. The Raiders allow a score on 50% of their possession. Allen is the top red zone target for Herbert. Seeing 24 targets this season in the red zone. Now they will be without his second favorite red zone target, Mike Williams. So Herbert may look for Allen even more. This raising his touchdown upside.
Without Mike Williams, I am expecting Jaylen Guyton to step up and play a huge role tonight. Guyton has been one of the best deep ball WRs this season and Herbert has looked to him in key moments all year to spark this offense. Guyton has had 4 catchable deep balls on his 12 targets, he has caught all four for 205 yards and three touchdowns. Guyton isn’t just a big-play guy, he also has 10 red zone targets on the season. That number could increase without Williams tonight.
Raiders Pass Catchers
The Raiders will be without their first-round pick Henry Ruggs tonight. Ruggs hasn’t been the top WR among rookies but he still has been an important part of this offense and a huge loss. This loss will open up some lanes for other talented WRs to have success tonight. Obviously, we will see a big bump to Darren Waller who I already expected to have a huge game against the Chargers. They can’t defend the TE without Derwin James and with the talent, Waller has, only the game script could stop him from dominating.
That isn’t really where you will be getting your takedown upside. We need to figure out the replacement and how he can help you dominate your showdown lines. Hunter Renfrow should see a target share bump but has a tough matchup against Chris Harris in the slot. On the outside, this leaves us with Nelson Agholor and the decision between Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones. Who will be the one to replace Ruggs? Agholor will see a bump in target share, as his role shouldn’t increase that much because he was already playing a majority of the snaps. Edwards has barely out-snapped Jones every week when they are both healthy. You have to go back to weeks 3 and 4 to see the last time Ruggs missed. It is tough to tell because Edwards also missed week 4 leading to Jones playing 89% of the snaps that week. Jones is $800, while Edwards is $400. So it is really a toss-up and may come down to who you can afford.
