What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. I hope you had an amazing week 13. Let’s start off the week with tons of green on this Thursday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out! Monkeyknifefight and Prizepicks, Promo code: KARMA, have been around for a couple of years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites hop in our DISCORD and message me. Our NFL Core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays! What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!

Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.

On DraftKings, you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier, this is similar to FanDuel, the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x as well. On FanDuel, the MVP spot it does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and fewer ties for DraftKings compared to FanDuel. Which is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings, you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.

Vegas Totals

The Rams are 4.5-point favorites tonight against the Patriots. With a 44-point game total.

Historical Matchup

We have a rematch of Superbowl 53 on our hands tonight! Obviously, there have been some bad Rams teams over the last decade. they haven’t played each other much during this time either. McVay is 0-1 vs the Patriots in his career and that game came on the biggest stage; Superbowl 53. He finally has a chance to get his revenge tonight. With the Patriots making a playoff push and the Rams pushing for first place in their division. It is a must-win for both teams. The Rams surprisingly have not scored more than 10 points against the Patriots over the last decade. Which I will assume changes tonight.

02/03/19: Rams: 03 Patriots: 13 Rams Spread: +2.5 O/U: 55.5

12/04/16: Rams: 10 Patriots: 26 Rams Spread: +13.0 O/U: 44.5

10/28/12: Rams: 07 Patriots: 45 Rams Spread: +7.0 O/U: 46.0

Quarterbacks

These two QBs are completely different. Cam Newton has run an extremely run-heavy offense. While Jared Goff looks to air it out most games.

Jared Goff has had his ups and downs this season. He has had difficulty finding his rhythm. Going from great games to awful games. Even though Goff is 3-1 in primetime games, they haven’t been because he had a great game. In fact, the later the game the worse he has performed this season. In 1 pm games, he is averaging 313 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. In 4 pm games, he is averaging 251 passing yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. In primetime games, he is averaging 231 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions a game. On top of that, his yards per attempt drop about one yard each later game. I never really thought Goff was a very good QB, and the primetime games are where he has played good teams this season. So, it makes sense he performs worse in those games. The last time Goff was in primetime he threw 376 yards but threw 2 interceptions in that game against a tough Bucs defense. They were able to expose the flaws of the Bucs possibly in the same way they can do with the Patriots.

As projected favorites, I am still expecting him to come out throwing, but this could definitely turn into a defensive battle.

Newton hasn’t been needed to throw a ton but gets it done with his legs. In my opinion, he is the safest play on the board because if they are up it is probably due to getting into the RedZone to score. Which is where Newton makes his money. He has 17 carries inside the 5 this season and 9 rushing touchdowns on those carries. Rex Burkhead is second on the team with 4 and he is out. Damien Harris has been getting work in the RedZone but once they get inside the 5 it is Newton territory. Against a tough Rams defense that is probably where the touchdowns will need to come from. They aren’t someone who will give up a big chunk touchdown to the Patriots.

Running Backs

Both teams struggle to give one back the majority of the touches for them. They both have designated roles for each guy.

Rams RBs since Week 11:

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Attempts	Yards	TD	RZ carries	i5 Carries	FPPG	PTs/Snap
Cam Akers	2	2	26	35	171	2	7	2	9	0.58
Malcolm Brown	4	4	53	9	21	0	2	1	9	0.33
Darrell Henderson	7	4	29	21	73	1	2	2	5	0.2

 

Patriots RBs Since Week 11 (When Rex was out):

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Attempts	Yards	TD	RZ carries	i5 Carries	FPPG	PTs/Snap
James White	5	4	0	5	18	2	2	1	9	0.46
Damien Harris	1	1	15	30	127	0	9	2	7.5	0.23

Patriots Pass Catchers

The Patriots are one of the least pass-heavy teams. This means that there will not be a ton to go around in this offense. In the first half during neutral game script (within 7 points), the Patriots pass only 44% of the time. While in the second half that bumps up to 54% of the time. They have a huge difference in negative vs positive game script in the second half. While they do pass at a 54% rate in the second half, if they have a lead of 3-14 that number drops to 33%, which is second-lowest in the league. While if they are losing by 3-14 points, they pass 58% of the time. So, the success of these pass catchers heavily revolves around if they are winning or losing.

It has been tough to get a read on these guys. The main two viable options in the passing game are Jackobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd. Meyers has seen a consistent target share this since he finally got involved in week 7. Only one week he dropped below six targets. Byrd has been seeing a huge increase in targets over the last couple of weeks. Outside of last week where they blew out the Chargers. We can’t read too much into that when only threw for 69 yards.

Byrd is only $800 for some reason on DraftKings. This is the biggest misprice on the slate. There is no reason for him to be this low. He is going to be in all my lineups and I could find myself putting him in the CPT spot as well. He has taken over as the number two in N’Keal Harry’s absence. Bryd has out-snapped him in every game since Harry has been back. I will probably be fading Harry outside large GPPs because why pay extra for a player that hasn’t produced as much as Bryd and is $1000 more expensive. Unless you are playing them together.

Rams Pass Catchers

On the other side of the field, the Rams are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. In the first half during neutral game script (within 7 points), the Rams pass 60% of the time. While in the second half, that number stays around the same with 59% passing plays. They have a huge difference in negative vs positive game script in the second half. While they do pass at a 54% rate in the second half, if they have a lead of 3-14 that number drops to 49%. While if they are losing by 3-14 points, they pass 62% of the time. So, the Rams are much more likely to pass the ball than the Patriots. While that does seem obvious that is why the Rams WRs are much more expensive.

Woods vs Kupp

This question is even worse than Lockett vs Metcalf. Although, we have seen continued success from both of these guys all season. This isn’t always a question of who will do well, it is who will do better? Gilmore has followed around the number one target five times this season. Last week Gilmore only saw Allen on 47% of his routes. Allen is similar to Kupp and Woods because they both play a lot out of the slot. I am curious if they don’t have a full shadow on Woods or Kupp, or they just have him shadow whoever is on the outside on each play. Both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp run a lot in the slot. Woods runs about 40% and Kupp runs about 60% slot. So, I assume Gilmore sees Woods more than Kupp but both will get a heavy dose of Gilmore. This could lead to a couple of different routes. Each WR only gets fed when they go into the slot or the third option goes off.

Reynolds vs Jefferson

Van Jefferson and Josh Reynolds had pretty defined roles until last week when McVay decided to flip the script and play Jefferson way more than he had in past weeks.

Week	Player	Snaps	Snap %	Routes	Route %	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
10	Van Jefferson	13	19.00%	7	16.00%	1	1	15	0
10	Josh Reynolds	56	80.00%	37	86.00%	10	8	94	0
11	Van Jefferson	4	6.00%	3	6.00%	1	1	7	1
11	Josh Reynolds	65	90.00%	48	94.00%	6	3	32	0
12	Van Jefferson	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	0	0	0	0
12	Josh Reynolds	61	98.00%	37	100.00%	6	5	40	0
13	Van Jefferson	40	49.00%	26	51.00%	5	4	27	0
13	Josh Reynolds	37	45.00%	23	45.00%	1	1	21	0

It appeared that Reynolds was the number three option in this offense all the way up to last week. With Jefferson trending up and Reynolds trending down, I would much rather only pay $2600 for Jefferson if they are going to be splitting time moving forward.