What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. I hope you had an amazing week 10. Let’s start off week 11 with tons of green on this Thursday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play, then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out! Monkeyknifefight and Prizepicks, Promo code: KARMA, these sites have been around for a couple years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites hop in our Discord and message me. Our NFL Core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays! What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier. This is similar to FanDuel, but the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x but the MVP spot on FanDuel does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and less ties for DraftKings as compared to FanDuel. This is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings, you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas totals
The Seahawks are 3-point favorites tonight against the Cardinals. With a 57.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
The Seahawks and the Cardinals face off two times a year, being from the same division. The Cardinals and Seahawks have had a couple close series over the last five years, but the Cardinals are looking for their third straight win against the Seahawks. The Cardinals are 4-5-1 in the last ten meetings, 6-3-1 against the spread, and the game has gone over four times.
10/25/20: Seahawks: 34 Cardinals: 37 Seahawks Spread: -3.5 O/U: 55.5
12/22/19: Seahawks: 13 Cardinals: 27 Seahawks Spread: -8.0 O/U: 51.0
09/29/19: Seahawks: 27 Cardinals: 10 Seahawks Spread: -5.5 O/U: 49.0
12/30/18: Seahawks: 27 Cardinals: 24 Seahawks Spread: -14.5 O/U: 39.5
09/30/18: Seahawks: 20 Cardinals: 17 Seahawks Spread: -3.5 O/U: 40.0
12/31/17: Seahawks: 24 Cardinals: 26 Seahawks Spread: -8.0 O/U: 38.0
11/09/17: Seahawks: 22 Cardinals: 16 Seahawks Spread: -6.0 O/U: 40.0
12/24/16: Seahawks: 31 Cardinals: 34 Seahawks Spread: -9.0 O/U: 44.0
10/23/16: Seahawks: 06 Cardinals: 06 Seahawks Spread: +1.5 O/U: 43.0
01/03/16: Seahawks: 36 Cardinals: 06 Seahawks Spread: +6.0 O/U: 47.0
Quarterbacks
This is going to be a battle between two of the best QBs in the league and should make for an exciting matchup. Wilson is slowly losing some MVP stock as Murray is growing his. After last weeks’ heroics, in Buffalo, Murray will try to surprise us again with a win tonight.
Let Russ Cook
Russell Wilson has been cooking all season, but two games ago he tried to trademark the term. Since then, the Seahawks are 0-2. Wilson’s numbers have started to tail off too. Even though he put up 390 passing yards against Buffalo, this has been accompanied by seven turnovers, over those two games as well. Since coming off the bye week, he hasn’t been good in general. In the last four weeks, he is averaging, 321.8 passing yards, has nine touchdowns, seven interceptions, and three fumbles. The Seahawks are 1-3 over that stretch.
Wilson will be going up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that had his number last game. He put up 388 yards, 3 touchdowns, but threw 3 interceptions as well. That was a game where the Seahawks weren’t missing Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson, but Wilson was still able to put up 84 rushing yards off a couple big scrambles.
The Cardinals defense has had their troubles this season, this should be a good spot to get back in the kitchen for Russ. Arizona is allowing, 38.8 attempts per game (29th), 250 passing yards (20th), 6.4 yards per attempts (9th), 1.9 passing touchdowns (22nd) per game. They have also been great at getting to the QB, ranking towards the top of the league in pressure %. The Cardinals force a pressure on 34% of the QBs drop backs. Seattle’s O-line has been giving up a pressure on 27% of Russ’s Drop backs, so if the pressure starts to get to Russ, he may be in store for a rough game.
MVP Kyler?
Kyler Murray has been able to sneak into the MVP conversations, after the Cardinals find themselves atop of the best division in football at 6-3. They are looking to take an even more commanding lead tonight as they take on the Seahawks. This could cause a sweep of the series.
Kyler hasn’t wowed us with his passing upside this season. He has two games of 300+ yards, which 22 QBs have done this season already. It is always his rushing upside that I love for him. He is averaging 13.7 fantasy points from rushing stats alone. If you could get 13.7 fantasy points from your RB every slate just from his rushing stats, he would be a first-round fantasy pick.
Murray put up 48 passing attempts which was a season, high last time these two teams played. I am not expecting anywhere close to that number tonight. People are projecting a shootout, but try to gain some leverage tonight. We aren’t going to see the same game, where both teams were very close to putting up 40 points. Jamal Adams is going to be blitzing a lot, so expect a lot of short passes, and designed runs for Murray. I will be using Murray tonight for his rushing upside more than his passing. You don’t need to pair him with a WR. There is amazing leverage running Murray with either Edmonds or Drake, while running it back with Seattle pass catchers.
Running backs
The running situation in Arizona can be tricky. They have three guys that can dominate. Kyler Murray, Kenyon Drake, and Chase Edmonds. Normally what they do is have Edmonds mainly as the pass catching back, Drake as the main carries guy. Then, of course, Murray adds his designed runs and scrambling.
Before week 7, when Drake went down with an ankle injury, Edmonds never saw more than six rushing attempts. I assume last week, Drake wasn’t 100% healthy, giving Edmonds some more work in the rushing game that he normally wouldn’t have seen. Edmonds continues to shine in the passing game, making him an extremely valuable play in showdown slates. On DraftKings, I would consider anyone that is cheaper than the back up QBs to be a value play. Edmonds is way too cheap in full PPR formats. When teams blitz it normally leaves the running back one on one with a LB, leading to an increased chance of taking a dump off to the house.
Kenyon Drake has the opportunity to dominate as well. Honestly, I have no issues running both these guys in the same line. We saw what the Vikings were able to do the Seahawks, even when Cook when down with an injury. There isn’t really a reason to try to get into a shootout with the Seahawks. I could easily see them slowing the game down with a lot of running plays. My bold call of the game: The cardinals finish with over 200 rushing yards tonight.
It appears Chris Carson is out for the Seahawks and with Homer doubtful. This leaves the Seahawks with Carlos Hyde, Deejay Dallas and Alex Collins to handle the workload. Collins was reverted back to the practice squad on Monday after the loss, but appears to be needed again tonight.
The Cardinals have had troubles on the ground which could lead to a potential big game for Hyde, especially if the game goes how Vegas projects and the Seahawks are winning. They are allowing 2.62 yards before first contact, which ranks second worst in the league. This could lead to the perfect spot for a Hyde explosion game. Everyone is going to be paying attention to the passing games for tonight, but the running game provides just as much value with increased leverage.
Cardinals Pass Catchers
Is it crazy to say, Deandre Hopkins’ game winning catch last week doesn’t crack his top 5 best receptions? Don’t get me wrong, that catch was amazing and shot me up the leaderboards to win me an extra $400 in a GPP I was in. But man, he has had some amazing receptions in his career that top even that. Hopkins has a chance to build on that success tonight against a poor Seattle secondary. Hopkins is obviously Murray’s favorite target and has a chance to take over Diggs as the league leader in receiving yards tonight. He trails only by 45 yards, and with Diggs on a bye, that should be easy to accomplish.
Christian Kirk has been one of the best deep threats in the league this year. He has hauled in all five of his catchable deep balls this season, while being targeted 12 times over 20 air yards. This has accounted for 29.3% of his yards this season. This has been a complete 180 from the offense last year, where we constantly saw four reception games for less than 40 yards. He is averaging 15.81 yards per reception this year, compared to 10.43 last year.
According to the WR/CB matchups, DeAndre Hopkins has the easiest matchup of the slate, followed by Fitzgerald then Kirk.
Seahawks Pass Catchers
The age-old question, Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf? DFS players have tried to come together over the last couple of weeks to find that pattern, but no one seems to be able to crack the code. I play Lockett and DK goes off or I play DK and Lockett goes off, what’s the deal? Well we have another game of Lockett vs DK, which will probably decide your fate tonight. I’m sure most people are going to flood to the box score and see what happened last game against the Cardinals. Lockett put up 200 yards on 20 targets and 15 receptions, finishing with three touchdowns as well. While DK only put up 23 yards on 5 targets and 2 receptions. Unfortunately, the game log watchers are going to benefit and play the optimal guy. Although, that doesn’t mean we can’t play DK. Arizona has been great at limiting big plays, which is what DK is known for. Even though that is the case, that doesn’t mean DK can’t go off tonight.
David Moore also always provides sneaky upside. He is a true boom or bust play. He has at least three targets in all but one game this season. Moore is just a big play waiting to happen at such a small price. We always here his name called in primetime games, seems like clockwork. In a projected shootout, he provides great salary relief.
According to the WR/CB matchups Lockett has the easiest matchup followed by Moore than Metcalf.
