What’s up DFS Grinders to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown throwdown article. Let me start off by saying HAPPY HALLOWEEN! I hope everyone sets their lineups and gets their props in before going out for the night. Whether you are a parent going out Trick or Treating with your kids or still a large child like me and will be partying get those. Either way Beers going while we watch the beautiful color green flow into our pockets tonight.
Vegas Lines
The 49ers are currently 10.5 point favorites on the road against the Cardinals with a 43 point game total.
Studs
Tevin Coleman: This is my top play on the slate ONLY IF we get the news that all the other RBs are not playing (Mostert is Probable while Breida and Wilson are both Questionable). Depending on the amount of RBs that are active and which are active then I’ll decide if he is still my top play lock or just a great play that you should play but don’t need him in your CPT AND MVP Spots to maximize your points. We probably won’t know all the information about the RBs until closer to lock when inactives are announced but I’ll be in our discord answering questions. Coleman is getting the bulk of the workload in this offense and has produced with every opportunity he has had. He is quietly having one of the best seasons for a running back this year. After coming back from injury week 5 he has 6 touchdowns and 16 touches in 3 out of the last 4 games; including 17 rushes (ranks 3rd) and 4 targets (ranks 6th among RBs) inside the 20. All that on top of the fact he is in a smash spot tonight. The cardinals are allowing 130 rushing yards per game and 152 rushing yards in losses (49ers are projected to win by 10.5 points).
George Kittle: What can I say more than, TEs against Arizona, it’s a thing. Kittle is one of the best TEs in the league and I’m all in on the 49ers destruction tonight. We really haven’t had that Kittle explosion game for 150 yards and a TD like we have seen in the past. One reason, the 49ers are committed to running the ball. Kittle is still getting the ball in this offense(26% target share) and the addition of Sanders helps draw attention away from Kittle (one game sample size, but saw a 33% target sage last week) as they now have another receiving threat in this offense. Even with Sanders in, Kittle saw 7 targets and 86 yards. His upside has been limited this year with the conservative play-calling for the 49ers, since their defense is miles above what they were last year and winning games they just haven’t needed the big play ability that kittle provides. His aDOT has always been low but his break out potential is still there. Arizona is currently last in fantasy points allowed to TEs so this is a perfect spot for a nice floor and high ceiling for Kittle.
Jimmy G: He seemed to do much better passing the ball now that Sanders has been incorporated into the offense. He may not need to throw the ball a lot if the 49ers get a big lead but provide a nice double-digit floor game to get you what you need tonight. He will not reach his crazy 18.5 projected prop but that doesn’t matter as much for fantasy showdown slates when he gets you 12 that will be enough for a takedown in this type of game environment. With the 49ers loving to run the ball even more than the Seahawks do with a lead, you just need him to be involved in the first half to get you what you need tonight. Not someone I want for MVP or CPT but someone I will have in most of my flex spots just cause you have the salary to fit him in everywhere.
FADE: I am fading Murray, his passing yards and touchdown potential is just not there tonight and I believe you are just contributing to the rake tonight if you play him. The only way he pays off value is if his rushing upside kicks in and he finds himself in the end zone on a lucky rushing TD or if the cardinals get down and the 49ers run prevent leading to him getting some nice scrambling opportunities in garbage time. Other than that he is a 100% full fade for me.
Middle Tier
FD Fade: Yes, it looks like Drake will be the lone back tonight but that doesn’t mean you should play him for that reason alone. He is going up against the league’s best defense. Game script will not be on his side and you are paying a prime $11.5k for a running back in just an awful spot. They finally allowed a rushing TD to a running back last week, but it took the best RB in the league, Run CMC to get there. Yeah, the pass defense is scarier than the run defense but Drake is completely overpriced on FD to touch him tonight when you can just play Kirk who has a higher floor and ceiling than Drake. Which leads us right into our next play.
Christian Kirk: The only issue with these types of games for showdowns where one dominant defense is going against a subpar offense is that you have to still find someone on the opposing team to play. My top choice unless you can fit Murray, for the rushing upside not the passing upside, is kirk. The 49ers pass defense has been amazing no one is denying that but when it comes to yards allowed to slot WRs the 49ers are getting “exposed” there. Exposed is an overstatement (that’s why it’s in quotes) but when it comes to percentages that seems to be where teams find the most success against them.
49ers Defense: I have to add them in here just like the Patriots defense in showdowns. They are already up to 7.4k but I love them tonight. Murray is in a turnover prone spot; at the pace they play this leads to more turnover opportunities for the 49ers than usual also with the game script and the Cardinals looking to play catch up. Forcing Murray to throw into tight coverage and take more chances. The pressure the 49ers force can cause a young QB to throw more interceptions, as well as, being a low scoring divisional game on a Thursday night, the Cardinals who haven’t been able to score many TDs this year, in general, shouldn’t see more than 2 TDs.
Cheap Tier
Raheem Mostert: I love this play if he is going to be the number two on this team (when Breida and Wilson get ruled out). The 49ers have shown they don’t want to run a workhorse back and Mostert has a history of success (I.e.earlier in this season where he saw 12 and 16 touches) in the number two role. With how good Coleman has been since being back and the crazy amount of touches he has, Coleman still hasn’t played more than 65% of the snaps yet. They aren’t going to give Coleman a workhorse role unless all 3 running backs are out. So Mostert should be in line for 40+% of the snaps in a run-first offense. Sign me up! I will be all in if only Coleman and Mostert are active for the 49ers.
DK Fade: I normally don’t talk about fading players in the cheap tier but I have to talk about it cause it’s near and dear to my heart. Let’s all have a moment of silence for my Dante Pettis shares in best balls. He just never got going in this offense after his early injury, now after Sanders gets added he goes from a 96% routes run share to 35%, ranking 6th on the team. With a team that loves to run the ball that’s not even close to enough to be even fantasy relevant unless he’s dirt cheap. You can take a shot at him on FD where he is basically min price but don’t expect much.
Props
Props are what I’m known for at Karma and I’ve made my most money in the Fantasy industry playing props. It’s a safer use of your money playing “cash” type props than playing 50/50s on FD/DK for single game especially. Normally I like to play some safe props than play some GPPs on FD/DK.
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