What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. I hope you had an amazing week 7. Let’s kick off week 8 with tons of green on this Monday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns.
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier, this is similar to FanDuel, the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x as well. On FanDuel, the MVP spot it does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and less ties for DraftKings compared to FanDuel. Which is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas totals
The Panthers are 2-point favorites tonight against the Falcons. With a 51.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
The Falcons and Panthers face off twice a year every year, because they are divisional foes. The Falcons have taken the previous eight meetings. Atlanta has covered the spread in eight of these games too. The game has only gone over the total in four out of ten games. Including once in the last three games.
10/11/20: Panthers: 23 Falcons: 16 Falcons Spread: -2.5 O/U: 53.5
12/08/19: Panthers: 20 Falcons: 40 Falcons Spread: -3.5 O/U: 48.0
11/17/19: Panthers: 3 Falcons: 29 Falcons Spread: +3.5 O/U: 49.0
12/23/18: Panthers: 10 Falcons: 24 Falcons Spread: -3.0 O/U: 46.0
09/16/18: Panthers: 24 Falcons: 31 Falcons Spread: -5.5 O/U: 43.5
12/31/17: Panthers: 10 Falcons: 22 Falcons Spread: -5.0 O/U: 44.5
11/05/17: Panthers: 20 Falcons: 17 Falcons Spread: -3.0 O/U: 42.0
12/24/16: Panthers: 16 Falcons: 33 Falcons Spread: -3.0 O/U: 48.5
10/02/16: Panthers: 33 Falcons: 48 Falcons Spread: +3.0 O/U: 48.5
12/27/15: Panthers: 13 Falcons: 20 Falcons Spread: +7.0 O/U: 46.0
Quarterbacks
The Falcons have had consistency at Quarterback for over a decade. Matt Ryan continues to run this offense perfect for fantasy owners. The Falcons reached a bump in the road when they had a three-game stretch without Julio Jones. Ryan’s numbers dropped tremendously, to the point where he was unplayable, with only Todd Gurley and Calvin Ridley producing any fantasy upside. Ryan averaged 358 passing yards per game, 3.75 touchdowns per game and only threw one total interception, during that four-game stretch. In three games without Julio, counting the Bears game where he went down with an injury in the first half, Ryan is averaging 250 passing yards, with only one touchdown and two interceptions during that stretch. That is a difference of 25 fantasy points with Julio and 10 fantasy points without him. Needless to say, Ryan plays a lot better with Julio than without, which I’m sure you didn’t need those stats to know that. The issue tonight is the Panthers are one of the most run funnel teams in the league. Last time these two teams played, granted without Julio, Ryan threw for 226 yards and an interception with no touchdowns. While Gurley put on a show, with 14 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown. On top of 4 receptions for 29 yards. I’m expecting a much better performance than that today, because you can’t get much worse than that. The Panthers allow 35% of their total yards to come on the ground, this ranks 9th most in the league.
The Panthers made a QB switch over the off season and brought in Teddy Bridgewater, signing a 3-year deal for $63 million. Bridgewater has played better than people thought he would. Leading to the Panthers to a 3-4 record, while winning three of the last five games, without CMC. I know, I know, you guys don’t care about all that. Give me those fantasy stats. Since week 3, Teddy two gloves has put up the 11th most fantasy points in the league, averaging 18.65 fantasy points. He has thrown for 1300 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions, during this five game stretch. Compared to his first two games where he threw for 636 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Playing without CMC has helped him solidify his role and the team leader and subsequently has matched that with big fantasy numbers. Bridgewater gets a really easy matchup tonight. The Falcons rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to QBs, allowing 31.1 DK fantasy points to QBs this year. Including the second most yards, 344.4 per game, the second most touchdowns, 2.7 per game, and only 0.7 interceptions per game. The Falcons have been winning going into the final drive almost every game this year, which has led to a bump for every quarter they have played. They all get an extra 60 passing yards and a touchdown that they probably shouldn’t have gotten. So, if you are going into the last drive and Bridgewater hasn’t gotten you everything you wanted, don’t worry, I am sure the Falcons will blow the lead and give up points that they shouldn’t have. The Falcons have yet to allow a passing to throw for less than 300 yards this season. Outside the Chicago game, where Mitch and Foles combined for 316, but neither individual passed for 300 yards. The Falcons rank dead last as a pass funnel team, allowing 78% of their yards in the air, compared to the league average of 67%.
Running Backs
We are extremely lucky today; Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out early on so we don’t have to wait on that slate altering news. He was a “long shot to play” on Monday and “hopeful to play” on Tuesday. So, I was a little nervous they were going to roll out a half healthy CMC and ruin today for fantasy. Luckily for us, we get to load up on Mike Davis today. Davis has been one of the best fantasy performers in the league. Since CMC went down with an injury, Davis has accumulated the 4th most fantasy points with 95.2 points, averaging 19.0 fantasy points per game. One of the main reasons he is such an amazing fantasy star recently is because he ranks second in RB receptions during that time. While also being second in the league the whole season, even while not playing the first two games. The Falcons have been known to get destroyed by running backs, especially pass catching backs. The Falcons are allowing 7.3 receptions to running backs this year, which ranks second in the league. They only give up 66 yards rushing per game, which ranks third best in the league. This is surprising for a team that has lost most games this season. Most likely due to blowing leads. So, they did have the lead a majority of the game forcing teams to pass more. This fits Davis’ way of playing perfectly and I am expecting a huge game from him. He had 9 receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown last time they played, adding on 89 rushing yards to that total. Giving him 29.9 fantasy points last time, they played. I am not expecting the same output, but he can easily achieve 30+ fantasy points again if the Panthers are losing a majority of this game.
The Falcons running back situation has been up and down this season, but Todd Gurley has somehow been able to put up respectable and even top 10 fantasy performances. Last time these two teams suited up against each other; Mike Davis was the number one fantasy back, while Gurley was the number two. These defenses are very fantasy friendly to running backs and we could see that happen again tonight. The Panthers allow the 4th most fantasy points to running backs. Allowing 22 rushing attempts, 107.3 rushing yards, 1.2 rushing touchdowns, 9.1 targets, 8 receptions, and 57.3 receiving yards per game. Normally teams are either allowing a ton of rushing yards or a ton of receptions to running backs, but these guys allow both. I hate playing Gurley but this is probably one of the only teams I like Gurley against. I played him against them last time they played. He is also a sneaky CPT candidate, that will go over looked. He is a great leverage play, with people wanting the passing attack for the Falcons, like usual.
Panthers Pass Catchers
Picking the right Panthers pass catcher will more than likely determine your fate tonight. I don’t think anyone predicted that Robby Anderson would be the top guy in Carolina and not DJ Moore. We did know that getting away from Gase would prove beneficial for Anderson, but being second in the league in receiving yards is playing well over expectation, losing CMC helps. Anderson has 640 receiving yards this season, and Moore has been creeping up behind him after two fantastic games, Moore finds himself with 567 yards ranking him 7th in the league now. According to PFF.com, this is going to be a DJ Moore type game. Among the three WRs on the Panthers, Moore has the best matchup advantage and the 4th best of the week at 38%. While Anderson, only has a matchup advantage of 9%, which is around the middle of the pack. Moore is going to be lined up against Kendall Sheffield, who give up a league high 2.77 yards per route covered run. Moore is one of the best ranking 11th in yards per route run with 2.33. Sheffield is also allowing a 75% catch%, which is one of the highest in the league. Moore should be able to slash through his coverage for a great game.
I will be avoiding Ian Thomas tonight. I had high hopes for him coming into the season, but he just isn’t really involved in the offense and he gets one of the toughest matchups of the week for TEs. He will be lined up with Deion Jones a majority of the game, who is allowing the 4th best, 0.46 yards per route covered. He also only allows a target on 10% of routes run on him. This correlates with Thomas’ atrocious 6% targets per route run, ranking him dead last in that category by 4%. Thomas is a great player, but just isn’t involved enough in the offense to play him.
Falcons Pass Catchers
The Falcons have had an interesting WR year for fantasy. There was talks about Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones being both WR1s in fantasy this year, similar to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last year. Ridley is currently 4th in the league, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game. Jones ranks 11th in the league, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. Julio has played and been health for four games this season; weeks 1, 2, 6, and 7. During this time Julio is averaging 9.25 targets, 6.75 receptions, 103.75 Yards, and 2 total touchdowns. Julio has been great in games where he has been healthy and I expect that not to slow down much tonight. The only issue we will have in this game will be the weather concerns. The tropical storm warning and effects seem to die down closer to game time, but it looks like another storm comes in from 4pm to 10pm EST. The winds will be far less which is extremely helpful. Going from 25-30 MPH sustained winds and 55 MPH gusts, which may have cancelled the game. The winds should die down, but the rain will bother the game, like we saw in the Buffalo/KC game a couple weeks ago. Even though the Falcons offense is a high-powered passing machine, we have seen them go away from the pass and establish the run way too often this year. Gurley hasn’t done much outside scoring easy red zone touchdowns, but they still love feeding him. Outside of the weather the Falcons WRs are all in play.
Hayden Hurst has come alive these past couple games. The former first round pick for the Ravens, was struggling to get going in this offense, but correlates nicely with Julio playing. It takes the attention off him, even though he isn’t the defenses’ top priority, they spend too much time trying to double Julio. This gives Hurst more opportunities to be open. His splits with and without Julio are as follows; 6 targets, 4.5 receptions, 58.75 yards, and two total touchdowns over this four-game stretch, leading to 13.4 fantasy points per game. As we compare that to when Julio is out; 5 targets 2.3 receptions, 20 yards, and one total touchdown in three games without Julio, leading to 6.3 fantasy points per game. These numbers include 51 of his 60 yards coming in one of those three games. So, we can tell, Hurst plays a lot better with Julio than without. This could be combined with Ryan’s play increasing as well. Ryan throws for 100 more yards per game with Julio vs without him and threw 11 touchdowns (4 games) compared to 1 touchdown (3 games). Obviously, we can see an increase with and without Julio, which, leads to more fantasy points for everyone else.
