Welcome back DFS grinders to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown article. Tonight’s game featured two divisional rivals in the AFC West. It looks like the weather is going to be cold in Cleveland tonight hovering right around freezing. This should make this game a nice low scoring Thursday Night Football Showdown. The 3-6 Browns are looking to start a first 2 game winning streak streak of the season while getting their first win against the Steelers since 2014. The 5-4 Steelers looking to continue their 4 game winning streak tonight.
Cleveland Browns
Feeling Dangerous?
Baker has had an extremely rough season. He was drafted as a QB1 but has yet to perform at a QB1 level, only posting 1 top 12 (QB1) performance this year. 9 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on a 70.2% adjusted completion rate which ranks third to last. Last week was the first week he had double digit touchdowns scored and marked the second consecutive week without a turnover. So is he trending up or were these just outliers? Let’s take a look at the defense tonight and see what he is up against. After starting the year allowing 355 passing yards per game which ranked 3rd worst in the league over the first two weeks, since then the Steelers are only allowing 224 passing yards per game which is 4th best in the league. What changed during that time you may ask? Well the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick has really changed the culture of the pass defense and the defense in general. The Steelers are leading the league in pressure this year with a pressure on 15% of snaps and has third most sacks and interceptions since week 3. The evolution of the the secondary and pass rush correlate to a nasty defense. Now with that being said can we trust Baker to perform and win us some showdown money? Obviously we can’t play him in season long but that really doesn’t matter in DFS showdown slates. We have to weigh if Baker’s price is worth the play on both sites. He is first on FD and 4th on DK. Baker has really struggled under pressure this season and it really shows in his fantasy numbers. According to PFF the Steelers grade out as first in pressure. The Browns have played other top 10 graded teams in pressure and let’s take a look how Baker has performed in them. (5)NE: 194 yards 1 TD 1 INT, (2) SF: 100 yards 0 TDs, 2 INT, (3) LAR: 195 yards 1TD, 1INT. He averaged 7.75 fantasy points and 0.25 points per dropback, while never eclipsing 12.5 fantasy points. Those 3 games were his 3 of his 4 worst games of the season. As pressure increases his fantasy numbers decrease. So it’s not crazy to think Baker will end up with another single digit fantasy performance tonight. While he is still in play in flex spots I would avoid him in CPT and MVP tiers. Tonight he will not be feeling dangerous.
Chubb and Hunt
With the addition of Kareem Hunt back into the lineup fantasy owners were worried that Chubb would take a huge hit in snap count and production. That was the risk that dropped Chubb out of the first round in most fantasy drafts. What’s the point of making it to the fantasy playoffs if your first round pick that got you there is stuck in a time share. Well luckily, that wasn’t really the case last Sunday as Chubb eclipsed 20+ rushes again for the 4th straight week and 6th time out of his last 7 games. Fantasy owners can take a deep breath moving forward, as Chubb didn’t miss a beat. He was on the field 81% of the snaps and accounted for 80% of the rushing attempts. While Hunt saw 56% of the snaps and only 4 rushing attempts. Hunt’s main fantasy value came from his use as a pass catcher, seeing 7 catches on 9 targets and ran a route on 60% of his snaps. This creates opportunities for both running backs to be productive fantasy performers and you can even play both in the same lineup tonight. They shouldn’t negatively correlate and eat into each others fantasy production if this keeps up during the end of the season. The Browns ran 43% of their snaps out of 2 running back sets last week per Sharp football Analysis, compared to only one play run with 2 RBs in the back field weeks 1-9. They are really trying to get both Running Backs involved in the game without sacrificing Chubb’s snaps. The issue tonight is that Steelers defense is also one of the top defenses in the league from a rushing stand point too. The Browns wont’ get completely shut down today but we need a way to attack them. The Browns are surprisingly Favorited in the game so game script will be on Chubb’s side. Chubb’s volume has really made him matchup proof this year. Recording 10+ fantasy points in every game this season. He is also second in the league with runs inside the 5 11 rushes but only leading to 2 Touchdowns. We could see him fall into the endzone tonight going up against the Steelers who are allowing the 5th highest touchdown% to running backs inside the 5.
Pass catchers
As a result of O-line troubles and Baker’s poor passing performances the Browns pass catchers have not lived up to the off-season hype. Odell hasn’t been the WR5 he was drafted at, in fact he has only had ONE top-12 finish on the season. That was mainly due to a 89 yard TD against the Jets, which turns out is his only Touchdown on the season. That touchdown regression is coming soon. Landry has performed well in the slot this year but there really isn’t anyone else highly productive in this offense. We need to attack this Pittsburgh defense somewhere but where is the point of attack? Outside, Inside, or from the backfield? Well let’s take a closer look. Pittsburgh used to be one of the heaviest slot funnel teams in the league but after the addition of Fitzpatrick their slot coverage has become much better. If Joe Haden gets ruled out tonight (Questionable with an Illness), that will give a boast to the WRs. Last week with Callaway benched last week Landry was forced to play outside. Callaway should be back this week, moving Landry back in the slot. The Steelers have allowed the most points to slot WRs on the season. Fitzpatrick has been playing free safety since joining the Steelers, so even though he has improved the defense in general the slot is still a target. Hopefully after Kupp’s 0 catch performance people stay away from Landry. Steelers are also giving up the 5th highest percentage of passes to TEs which could lead to a sneaky game from Ricky Seals-Jones if he is able tot play tonight. If not, Harris becomes a top value play.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer
With the loss of Big Ben the Steelers season seemed to be all but over for them. It looks like Rudolph has been able to save their season just like Rudolph saved Christmas. After starting the season 1-4 the Steelers find themselves at 5-4 and on a 4 game winning streak. When Rudolph had a lot of success this year when given time in the pocket compared to pressure. He hasn’t really jumped of the page with his stats at all this year with a lot of dump offs to RBs and short passes. It’s taken him some time but he seems to finally start opening up the offense now. Also is spreading the ball around a ton. I don’t think you need to play either Quarter Back tonight with the potential slow grind it out game.
Potential Split back field?
James Conner is back in the mix this week, does that mean Jaylen Samuels completely goes away or does that mean Conner and Samuels will see similar touches. We really haven’t seen both these two on the same field for a full game since week 4 against the Bengals, where Rudolph was still getting used to the offense and Samuels was needed to play a big role whether it was wildcat, running, or receiving. Conner will be the main running back with Samuels still getting the work in the passing game with his high RB target ceiling. Conner has a smash spot tonight. The Browns are giving up an average of 2.11 yards before contact to get the pass rush off Rudolph they will get Chubb going on the ground and through the air. Could we see the potential 4 RB takedown tonight?
Pass Catchers
It looks like Ryan Switzer will be out tonight so that just leaves 4 WRs for the Steelers tonight. You have the 3 starters who we all know, then that also leaves you with an interesting punt play at $200 with Johnny Holton. Yeah, Switzer didn’t have a huge role in the offense and Holton hasn’t proved anything but I always get the question who can I punt at $200 if I want to fit the studs and here is your answer. Don’t use him in CPT or in cash tonight but if you are feeling a little crazy go for it! Now lets get back to the real plays. There are 5 pas catchers involved in this offense and we have to figure out who has the best matchup and who is the best value out of the 5. I still like the value that Vance McDonald provides. He has yet to surpass 40 yards, but is running the second most routes on the league every single week. What does that tell me? The opportunity is there but he has yet to capitalize on that, YET. These are the plays you have to use in Showdowns to get to the takedown and we could easily see Vance McDonald in the takedown tonight. Also remember the classic TEs vs Cleveland? It hasn’t been as prominent this year, allowing middle of the pack points to TEs, but have allowed 5 TDs which ranks 5th in the league. The Browns defense has been injury ridden in the secondary this year but they are looking fully healthy with Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward finally getting healthy.
Props
Props are what I’m known for at Karma and I’ve made my most money in the Fantasy industry playing props. It’s a safer use of your money playing “cash” type props than playing 50/50s on FD/DK for single game especially. Normally I like to play some safe props than play some GPPs on FD/DK.
You have seen all the screenshots flooding twitter what are y’all waiting for. Use promo code “REPLAY” at checkout for 20% off your subscription. That’s a huge discount!
