What’s up Karma Nation! We are back with another season of my Showdown Throwdown article. We had success last year targeting these showdown slates so here’s to another profitable year! Make sure if you haven’t to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates all apart of the NFL Core Plays package. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns.
Vegas totals
Chiefs are a 9.5 point favorite tonight against the Texans. With a 53 point game total.
First game of these season should be a great one. 53 should be one of the higher totals we see on a game this season.
QuarterBacks
Obviously, we have two of the best quarterbacks in the league and fantasy quarterbacks on the slate, but do you have to play them? Do you have to play them both? The short answer is no but they are still great plays.
Patrick Mahomes: He will be close to 100% owned tonight and for all the right reasons. Mahomes will be going up against one of the worst defenses in the league tonight. As well as being a 10 point home favorite we could see Chiefs get out to an early lead and Mahomes doesn’t hit his ceiling. If you are running a cash game lineup eat the chalk and play him in your MVP spot but in GPPs I don’t mind getting weird with him. There are multiple game theory approaches for him in you should play him. If the Chiefs can get out to an early lead Mahomes won’t be relied on heavily, but you still have to assume they got out to the early lead because Mahomes was scoring. I will dive further unto game theory in Premium chat tonight, there are a couple ways to play it tonight. The most important part of showdowns is maximizing your ceiling.
DeShaun Watson: Watson ended up averaging more points than Mahomes last season, mainly due to his legs. Unfortunately, Watson will be without his best WR last year and best WR in the NFL; DeAndre Hopkins. Texans did a great job adding weapons for Watson with David Johnson and Brandin Cooks. Watson is one of the best scramblers in the league and can turn any broken play into a highlight. Expect him to throw and scramble more as he tries to bring his team back. If you expect this game to stay close or the Texans to be winning lock in Mahomes but I Vegas is right and we see a 2 score game Watson is an amazing MVP sleeper.
We saw these teams play each other twice last season.
Playoffs:
Mahomes: 321 yards 5 touchdowns, 7 rushes for 53 yards
Watson: 388 yards 2 TDs, 6 rushes for 37 yards 1 TD
Regular Season:
Mahomes: 273 yards 3 touchdowns 1 INT
Watson: 280 yards 1 TD 2 INTs, 10 rushes 42 yards 2 TDs
RunningBacks
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Clyde has seen much deserved hype once Williams opted out of the season. It has now become Clyde’s back field. A starting running back in that offense is always sexy and I’m excited to watch him play. There are definitely some worries about a rookie running back playing his first game in primetime without an offseason. I’m sure we all remember Kareem Hunt bursting to the scene his rookie debut against the Patriots Thursday night in 2017, Hunt dropped 3 touchdowns on 17 rushes for 148 yards and 5 catches for 98 yards. Totaling 53 DK points. We aren’t going to get that lucky again, with a shortened offseason and no preseason we can’t expect CEH to see a workhorse load game 1. Look for some value in the backup running backs.
David Johnson: So, the Cardinals were able to rob the Texans and trade DJ for Hopkins. One of the crazier moves of the offseason. Normally I don’t like running 10 point underdogs in showdowns because the game script is not on his side but lucky for the Texans they got one of the best pass catching backs in the league. We can’t know exact tendencies but we should see a ton of routes for DJ tonight and in the future. He won’t have the high rushing yards ceiling but I love him to catch 4-5 balls tonight and in open space he could bust one for a long gain or touchdown. We can also see him run a lot slot tonight, but without preseason we can’t be sure. In Arizona, he was used in the slot a ton so I expect that again this year.
Pass catchers
I don’t want to touch on every WR on the slate because we all know that Hill and Kelce are always in play every slate.
MeCole Hardman: The chiefs have an offense full of these types of guys. Fast game breakers that can bust a touchdown on any catch. The Chiefs are expecting Hardman to take a big step from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign. We saw the same thing happen to Hill, inexperienced college speed guy turns into one of the top WRs in the league. Same thing could happen to Hardman this year. Texans secondary is one of the worst in the league and we can easily see Hardman break a long touchdown tonight. Low floor but one of the highest ceilings on the slate outside the studs.
Darren Fells: The Texans always love getting their TEs involved in the offense and with an extremely injury prone offense for the Texans Fells could have a much bigger role this season. Fells signed a decent 2 year 7 million dollar contract over the offseason and I expect him to have a big role again this season. He scored 7 touchdowns last year. In two games last year against the Chiefs Fells had 7 targets in each game. Chiefs have been bad against TEs for the past two seasons and are expecting another rough year defending TEs. The Chiefs gave up the 7th most fantasy points to TEs last year and 151 targets to TEs which was last in the league. When the Chiefs pass rush starts getting to Watson especially late in the game Watson will be looking for his safety blanket down the middle.
Kickers and Defenses
In high totals like this one we will see plenty of opportunities to kick field goals and have extra point opportunities,
Chiefs Defense: The Texans are projected to be losing heavily in this game according to Vegas which means Chiefs have a great chance to score a lot of points. Texans will be trying to push the pace to come back in the game leading to sacks and interception opportunities. Texans will have to get a little more risky which will lead to those turnover and sack opportunities.
