What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position.  You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t signed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks:

Cash

Patrick Mahomes is really popping off in our simulations for the optimizer and is looking like a LOCK in cash games. I had the optimizer build 20 cash lineups for this weekend and Mahomes was in all 20 lineups. Mahomes is coming in at the highest owned QB on the slate and now you know it is for good reason. You may not think he is worth paying up for but against an awful Atlanta pass defense and a more than proficient run defense. Mahomes should have no trouble passing on these guys and racking up a ton of yards even with the lead.

If you don’t want to pay all the way up to Mahomes like I am sure most people would rather not do, look no further down than Jalen Hurts. Hurts seems to be acclimating to the NFL well. Since taking over for Carson Wentz in New Orleans, Hurts has dominated the fantasy lineups. He got to highlight his passing abilities last week, as he threw 44 times for over 300 yards. This gives me even more confidence to play him in cash games at this price, compared to the week. Where it was mainly for the rushing upside. I don’t see how the Cowboys defense will be able to stop him in the air or the ground.

Safe GPP

Surprisingly, Mitch Trubisky is playing well since getting the starting job back from Nick Foles. He is averaging 244.5 passing yards, two touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions, and 20 rushing yards to top it off. This equated to two 20+ point fantasy point games over that stretch. In an easy matchups against the Jaguars who allow the 25th most fantasy points to QBs this season. Mitch is in the perfect spot to see another 20+ fantasy points game.

Low Owned GPP:

Jared Goff has had his ups and downs this season, but as the Rams look to clinch the NFC West this year. They need to survive a game against one of the worst defenses in the league. This means Goff needs to be on his game and be ready for a potential shootout if his defense can’t contain Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. It is supposed to be sunny for the majority of the game, perfect weather for Goff to throw for 300+ yards against a Seahawks defense that are allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs this season.

Running Backs:

Cash

Both David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler are going to be core plays for me this week. Once Keenan Allen was expected to miss the value to Ekeler skyrocketed with his projected increase target share. Ekeler has already been one of the best pass-catching backs for fantasy in games he has played and now he should see even more volume. According to the Projections Portal, both of these two guys are the highest-projected scores on the slate for running backs. Both guys have extremely easy matchups and have been dominating the usages and snap counts for the backfields. I am expecting ceiling games from both of them, but if not they have the target floor to help them still see double-digit scoring days even on a down game.

Safe GPP

I am pivoting away from Nick Chubb and using Kareem Hunt as a leverage play off of the chalkier side of the backfield. We will be assuming that the Browns won’t Browns this one up and lose to the Jets. So we can project this as the positive game script for the Browns. I have noticed that they use Hunt more as the closers in blowout games. Last week Chubb was dominating the carries and then the next thing you know the Browns have a two-touchdown lead and the balls continuously going to Hunt. Chubb has a safer floor than Hunt but he provides amazing leverage over the field if Hunt ends up with a majority of the touchdowns.

Low Owned GPP

Gio Bernard is coming off his best game of the season this year against a top 3 run defense in the league. This surprising outburst could raise his ownership but I hope we still get him fairly low. He is going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league, the Houston Rockets. After his no-show performance against the Cowboys in week 14 where he fumbled in the first half and never saw the field again. He was able to restore the fantasy community faith in him last week when he put up 22.7 fantasy points in primetime against the Steelers.

Wide Receivers:

Cash

Calvin Ridley is going to go from a low owned gem last week to a chalk option in a potential shootout this week against the Chiefs. I can quote what I put in my article last week because it still applies:

“With Julio expected to miss another game, we can feel confident about playing Calvin Ridley at barely any ownership. Ridley has had himself a breakout season this year and in games without Julio, he gets peppered with targets. His high price should keep his ownership down, so we can get amazing leverage on the field. Ridley has a great chance of receiving the 100-yard onus with the Falcons most likely playing from behind. Ridley has played 4 games without Julio this season, he has 9+ targets in all four and has gone over 100 yards in all but one game.”

He added onto those totals last week where he saw; 14 targets, 10 receptions, 163 yards, and a touchdown. Ridley has just been way too dominant to pass up this week.

Marvin Hall is going to be the chalk this week and we are just going to have to deal with it. The Cleveland Browns will be without their entire starting WR group so they have to dig down into the depths of their rosters for these guys. In the 20 lineups we ran on the optimizer, Hall was in 85% of them. He is popping out too much in the data to avoid fading him against a bad Jets defense.

Safe GPP

Jamison Crowder is popping off as one of the best values on the slate this week according to the Projections Portal. We should see Crowder see another game of high target share. Crowder has the 6th highest target share in the league among WRs, receiving 26% of the team’s targets. This while only seeing 22% of the team’s air yards share. Although, he has not seen double-digit targets since week 6. The Jets should be losing this game early and often, so the Jets will be forced to pass the ball a lot more this week than last.

Low Owned GPP

Mecole Hardman is coming in as one of the best ceilings/$ on the board this week. We could potentially see Tyreek Hill be limited or just not used as much in the offense as we are used to coming off an injury. So this could open up Hardman to increased snaps or usage in this offense. While Travis Kelce would receive the biggest bump, don’t sleep on Hardman to see an increase in volume this Sunday. Hardman led the team in air yards last week with 152 on nine targets. 152 air yards ranked third in the league, only behind, Calvin Ridley (212) and Stefon Diggs (171). He converted only 14% of his air yards for regular yards. The lowest number in the league that week who caught a pass.