What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position. This is more of a first look because it is coming out on a Friday and the weekend can always bring change, especially in the Covid-19 era, we continuously have the slate turned upside down on Saturday morning. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t signed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!
| QBs: | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: |
| J. Herbert | D. Henry | D. Metcalf | T. Kelce | Ten/Jax |
| J. Hurts | A. Ekeler | C. Davis | N. Fant | NYJ/SEA |
| R. Tannehil | A. Jones | D. Adams | M. Gesicki | LAC/ATL |
| M. Glennon | G. Bernard | B. Perriman | H. Henry | DAL/CIN |
| M. Ryan | C. Edwards | D. Hopkins | D. Waller | IND/LV |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
For our cash games, it is another week of deciding to pay up or down at QB. We have two great options to choose from and unlike other positions, we can’t play both.
Cash
The first QB that sticks out to me is Jalen Hurts. Hurts will be taking over for Carson Wentz this week after the Eagles finally decided to bench Wentz midway through the game last week. Hurts was able to come in and throw for 109 yards on 12 attempts and five completions. What I loved about him is he got it done with his legs as well. Accounting for 5 scrambles for 29 yards. That boast from the ground game really makes him cash game playable for me. He is also one of the cheapest QBs on a slate where you are looking to pay up at other positions. While the Saints’ defense is nothing to pass over, Hurts rushing upside combined with the lack of tape on him, should help him easily reach value this week.
Another QB I have been looking at for cash is Justin Herbert, who is going up against a poor Atlanta defense. The Falcons have allowed a 300-yard passer in all but four games this season. Two of which were from Taysom Hill, which I don’t fully count. On DraftKings, those 300-yard games are so valuable with the bonus this could help out tremendously on Sunday.
Herbert has also been playing lights out his rookie year, finally getting back a fully healthy Austin Ekeler. The addition of Ekeler provides another much-needed pass catcher, especially for the safe underneath routes. Herbert loves dropping back and looking for the deep ball first. Then if nothing is there, he checks down to either Keenan Allen or Ekeler. Having two top-notch safety blankets helps Herbert easily move this offense against even the toughest of defenses. On Sunday he will face one of the easiest defenses to pass on.
Safe GPP
I never fully trust Ryan Tannehill in cash games because his floor is pretty low when Derrick Henry has a good game. This is something many are projecting to happen. On top of that, I can never play them in a cash lineup together and I am looking to play Henry in cash. Although, Tannehill does have an amazing matchup against the Jags who get torched on the ground and in the air. So, it really all depends on what the Titans play-callers decided to do. If Henry is feasting, then I expect a down game from Tannehill. If not, Tannehill could easily become the highest-scoring QB on the slate, with potentially 4+ touchdowns.
Low Owned GPP:
This may come as a surprise but I love Mike Glennon this week. He also is a great play to help run back the chalky Derrick Henry and Corey Davis. We are expecting heavy ownership on the Titans’ side. Why not leverage that, by running it back with Jags players to raise your ceiling in a potential shootout? Glennon gets his easiest matchup of the season, against a Tennessee Titans team that just gave up four first-half touchdowns to Baker Mayfield. I love targeting teams with bad pass defenses as favorites. The Titans fit that script perfectly. They are 7.5 point favorites while giving up 283 passing yards per game. That sets up the perfect garbage time points for Glennon, who is a sneaky candidate to backdoor a 300-yard bonus.
Fade:
Matt Ryan will be without Julio Jones for this weekend’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. This should lead to a bad performance for him. His splits with and without Jones have been awful. With Jones, he is averaging 310 passing yards per game, with a 4.3% TD%, and 1.4% interception%. Leading to a 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio. Without Jones, these numbers plummet to 216.3 passing yards per game, with a 2.6% TD%, and a 2.6% Int%. Leading to a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. This will lead to less-than-ideal conditions against a bad Chargers defense.
Running Backs:
Cash
There are two running backs I want to pay up for in cash and the reasoning behind the plays couldn’t be any more different.
First, it’s DeHember baby! Time to hop on the Derrick Henry fantasy bandwagon for the remainder of the season. Henry feasts at the end of the season and this game should be no different. We saw Henry flop last week, but that doesn’t worry me at all. Henry is a very game script dependent running back and the Titans got behind early so they stopped running the ball. That means he doesn’t see the field. Since Henry isn’t used in the passing game, you need to target matchups where the Titans will have the lead going into the second half or at least the third quarter. The Titans are 7.5 point favorites this week against the Jags. So, Henry should be the focal point of this offense. Henry has a pretty broad win/loss split, in victories, Henry is averaging 120.9 rushing yards and 1.25 rushing touchdowns a game. In losses, Henry averages 87.5 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. For a guy that doesn’t see much in the passing game, those splits mean a lot. Normally a running back will make up for their lack of rushing attempts with receptions, but for Henry that doesn’t happen. He averages 1 reception per game in losses and 1.375 receptions in victories.
Austin Ekeler’s cash game appeal comes more from the air than on the ground as Henry’s did. Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. He is averaging 13 targets per game in the three games that he played more than 60% of snaps this season. Turning that into 67 receiving yards per game. This makes Ekeler way less of a game script back compared to Henry. If the Chargers are losing he will be involved in the passing game and if they are winning he will be involved in the running game. The Falcons have always been known for their inability to defend running backs in the passing game. Which falls exactly into Ekeler’s strengths. Although they have been better this year compared to years past, they still give up 5.25 receptions per game to running backs. Ekeler isn’t just used in the passing game, in games that Ekeler finished and didn’t get blown out in, he has seen double-digit carries in all four games.
Safe GPP
Aaron Jones is someone you can play in cash, but I never trust his floor. If he isn’t able to succeed in the first half, I don’t fully trust LeFleur to not throw Williams in for a few plays or Rodgers throw for touchdown passes inside the 5, instead of handing the ball off. That being said, he gets an extremely easy matchup against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are one of the worst run Ds in the league, giving up a league-leading 33.3 DK points per game to running backs. Jones has two 20+ fantasy point games and five double-digit fantasy point games in the nine games Davante Adams played this season. The Lions join the Cowboys and the Chargers as the worst teams at getting the running back early. They allow 2.58 yards before contact, this could lead to one of Jones’ late-game long rushing touchdowns if you give Jones too much space.
Low Owned GPP
Gio Bernard is going to get completely overlooked this week and has the chance to be a top 5 back. He gets the easiest rushing matchup in the league against the Dallas Cowboys, who are allowing 3.21 yards before contact. So, even with the Bengals awful offensive line, Bernard should still have an easy time finding holes. He is also game script proof. What do I mean by this? Whether they are winning or losing Bernard will still be part of the offense. If they are winning he will get to run against the worst rush defense in the league and if they are losing, he will be receiving targets; receptions are king in fantasy.
My one concern with this play is that Samaje Perine has been slowly getting more and more touches as the season moves on. This lowers Bernard’s floor, but the ceiling is still there.
Wide Receivers:
Cash
I have had trouble deciding between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the past, but I have to go with DK Metcalf on this one. He is going up against a poor Jets secondary that is now without Pierre Desir, who was the Jets’ best corner. Metcalf has shown he is matchup proof after destroying Darius Slay last week, and now he gets an extremely easy matchup against the Jets corners. Metcalf is tied with Lockett with a team-leading 24% target share but is blowing Lockett away with his league-leading, 42% air yards share. Metcalf should have no problem tearing through this Jets defense.
I will be going back to Corey Davis this week, but as a cash play instead of a low owned GPP play, as I had in my article last week. Davis has shown he is just as valuable as AJ Brown, minus the big-play ability that Brown has. So what that Brown has more fantasy points per game than Davis does on the season, that doesn’t matter. Corey Davis had more fantasy points in games they played together. Leading the two in target share, air yards share, basically everything except touchdowns. That isn’t even counting last week when Davis blew the socks off Brown for fantasy points. In eight games played with Brown, Davis has six 5+ reception games, Brown has two. An interesting note from the two players, Brown’s three best games came against the best defenses they played, while Davis’ three best games came against the worst defenses they have played.
Safe GPP
Davante Adams is always in play every week, but this week he is even more valuable. Adams has been one of the best WRs in fantasy this year. He is leading the league in receiving yards per game and receiving touchdowns while missing two games this season. Adams is a target vacuum, he has a league-high 34% target share. On top of his 37% air yards share. With Lazard still expected to be on a snap limit, Adams should continue to suck up a ton of targets and yards. He is also Rodgers’ favorite red zone target. Since week 7; Rodgers has thrown 17 end zone targets and 54 red zone targets. Adams accounts for 10 of the end zone targets, 58%, and 29 of the red zone targets, 54%. When he gets to the red zone Adams is his guy. If it isn’t Aaron Jones running in a score, it is Adams catching a crazy touchdown pass.
Low Owned GPP
I am pretty surprised to see the ownership projection on Breshad Perriman to be so low, but I guess that number will rise closer to lock. Especially if Crowder is ruled out. For now, I will consider him a low owned GPP play until I see otherwise. Perriman will get an easy matchup against the Seahawks defense who are allowing the most fantasy points to WRs this season. The Jets will also be missing Denzel Mims, who has been an extremely reliable target for Darnold. This just means he will have to lean on Perriman even more. Just like using Glennon as a 1+ touchdown underdog against a bad secondary, I will do the same with Perriman as the Jets are 13.5 point underdogs. That means we should see a garbage time fantasy point boast from him.
